DanV
Long

EURUSD - Longer Term Continues with Bullish Action

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1598 8 4
When I posted my last chart some 2 months ago for longer term I was suggesting possible long entry, which prove little too early. However, the long entry was generated at even lower price and since the price action has continued with Bullish Action. Here is the last chart.
EURUSD - Could it be potential Buy here?


Now we have had the FOMC event which everyone was looking to have the details of QE Tapering or not, has proved somewhat disappointing to many but anticipated in my DXY             chart posted prior to the event
Dollar Index - Potentially in Bearish Configuration


So now, DXY             appear to have breached the rising trend line support. Any pull back could be bearish for USD and bullish for EUR.

Not entirely sure of my EW counts, but possibly seem to agree with other technical features, such as Cup& Handle which could soon confirm, Also sequence of higher highs & higher lows within broadly up trending channel and above rising 200 day MA. Taking it all together, I think we are on course for at least possible AB=CD shown in pink which projects to 1.44 area but could hit 1.145-1.47 area as many stop are likely to trigger around there.

So for now every reasonable pull back should offer long entry opportunity.
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Below is EUR-DXY correlation chart. it seems to suggest that DXY is now in early stage of clear down trend. If so the corresponding prices higher for EURUSD will pick up momentum to the upside.
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DanV MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
Yes, for now there is nothing to alter that view. As far as time period is concerned next 6 months is probably the minimum. It could stretch to 12 -18 months but too early to say. However, my initial cast of mid 2014 could be pivotal but no necessarily important. Thanks for asking
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Here is shorter term out look.
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After a big decline middle of last week, we seem to have tried to bounce or paused on low volume, indicative of resumption of the down trend for the coming week in DXY
http://www.screencast.com/t/bOMukyRmJ

This would also support stronger price action of EURUSD. in DXY Shorter term chart, you can see what I mean based on my analysis and EW counts
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Sentiments of traders are so fickle, that sometimes they change suddenly, and might have short term swing that justifies their view. However, regardless of how much they continue to feel bearish on EUR, it seems to be at the doorstep of major breakout on several EUR pairs or in early stage of major trend change. I will leave you to check that out, but hear is an interesting chart that will help appreciate what might be happening. Hence till it is proven otherwise, only retracements along the uptrend is what's in store and should offer good buying opportunity along the way.
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hm!
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