RobertPapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (14.09-18.09)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Last week, the euro             strengthened against the dollar by 1.62%. In the first part of the week the currency pair moved sideways, which was caused by the absence of significant macroeconomic data. On Thursday and Friday we met weaker readings from the US, which supported the euro             . The demand has led to pierce key resistance and has driven the course to the level of 1.1349. Closing of the week was at 1.1338

In the coming week, the most important event will of course be the Fed meeting, which will take place on 17 September. Economic data coming out of the US which tend to be good but not impressive, which is why investors will be important meeting of the Fed's hawkish message.

Turning to the economic calendar, you should be aware of the following readings:
Monday:
11:00 Industrial production in the euro             area;

Tuesday:
11:00 ZEW economic mood in Germany;
11:00 trade balance and ZEW index in the euro             zone;
14:30 retail sales and core retail sales in the US;
14:30 Industrial production in the US;

Wednesday:
11:00 CPI             and underlying CPI             inflation in the euro             area;
14:30 CPI             and underlying CPI             in the US;

Thursday:
14:30 permission to build in the US;
14:30 started the construction of homes in the US;
14:30 ascendant declared to the unemployed in the US;
16:00 Industrial index by the Fed of Philadelphia;
20:00 Decision on interest rates, economic outlook and the Fed statement;

Friday:
no data;

The outlook for EUR / USD pair on a Monday;
The economic calendar is empty on Monday, suggesting a lower liquidity in the eurodolarze. From a technical point of view, we may see a correction after the recent rally, which should not go below support at 1,1277-82. Given Thursday's meeting of the Fed, some investors may wait with taking a more risky decisions, which automatically translate into oscillation on the currency pair discussed.

In my opinion, the most likely option in the Monday is a correction towards 1.13 level, which coincides with the lower bound channel growth and the mountain peaks of 28 August. Then the real seems to go back in the vicinity of Friday's summit at the level of 1.1349, perhaps with a test level of 1.1364 (maximum of 27 August).
thanks
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RobertPapon riccardo.pradella
you're welcome
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