RobertPapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (13.04-17.04)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
It was a very good week for the dollar. Pair EUR / USD weakened within a week as much as 3.57% and it was the worst result since September 2011. One factor that drove the strength of the dollar were the last notes of the minutes of the FOMC, from which we learn that the Fed maintains its rhetoric increases in interest rates as early as mid-year. It is worth mentioning that these were the records of March, and two weeks ago we met a very weak data on unemployment in the US. However, despite this market is still speculating on the increase, and the last week was the confirmation. The second and very important element of the weakening of the euro             is unclear situation in the negotiations with Greece, which does not have the final reform plan. Therefore, it should be remembered that without financial assistance from outside the Greeks will not be able to recover from the crisis themselves. Certainly interesting will be in May, when the Greeks will be forced to pay back more than 900 million.

In the next week the market will be closely watched for Wednesday, when it will be the ECB meeting and conference, where Mario Draghi will present the first results and evaluation of the program QE .

Everything indicates that the pair EUR / USD will move towards parity in the medium term.

The economic calendar for next week:

Monday:
20:00 USA: balance the budget

Tuesday:
9:00 EUR CPI             in Spain
9:00 EUR HICP in Spain
10:00 EUR CPI             in Italy            
11:00 EUR Industrial Production
14:00 US FOMC member speaks, Kocherlakota
14:30 USA Core PPI
14:30 USA Retail Sales Base
14:30 USA PPI
14:30 USA Retail

Wednesday:
8:00 EUR German CPI            
8:45 EUR French CPI            
8:45 EUR HICP in France
11:00 EUR Trade Balance
13:45 EUR decision on interest rates
14:30 US manufacturing index for New York             City
14:30 EUR ECB press conference Mario Draghi
15:00 USA speaks member of the FOMC, Bullard
15:15 US Industrial Production
20:00 USA Beige Book

Thursday:

14:30 USA for building permits
14:30 US Building Permits
14:30 USA Started bodowy homes
14:30 USA Housing starts
14:30 USA declared ascendant unemployed
16:00 USA Industrial Index by Philadelphia Fed
16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed report dot. Employment
19:00 US FOMC member's speech, Lockhart
19:10 US FOMC member speaks, Mester
19:30 US FOMC member speaks, Rosengren
21:00 USA speaks member of the FOMC, Stanley Fischer

Friday:
11:00 EUR Core CPI            
11:00 EUR CPI            
11:00 EUR CPI            
14:30 US Core CPI            
14:30 US Core CPI            
14:30 USA CPI            
16:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the final
16:00 USA Michigan consumer sentiment index

Forecast for Monday:


The currency pair after the panic sell-off, which took place last week is quite heavily subscribed. (Notes can assume the Fed interest rate hikes in the middle of the year). Accordingly, in the absence of important data tomorrow, can risk saying that we can expect a small rebound discussed together. The graph below shows that the currency pair is in a wedge formation, which should lead to breaking the mountain. In my opinion, a correction can be reached in around 1.0675 (23.6% fibo falls from 1.1034 to 1.0566 level), the next resistance level could be 1.07 and 1.0743 (38.2% fibo recent declines ). Then the game should join the supply side, which should push the course of the recent lows.

In the medium and longer-term downward trend in force and the aim should be parity.

Otherwise, if there is no correction is a currency pair will be heading towards the support at 1.0566 and 1.05. This may mean that the market will want to test the 1.0456 minimum this year before a correction.
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