There is no major economic data of both US and EU this week.
There are two options to trade:
- Using TA to trade
- Following market sentiment.
I recap what happened last week; we have two major points:
- ECB kept unchanged interest rate and hint some options to solve risk of deflation : negative deposit rate + quantitative easing
- Non-Farm payrolls report missed the forecast: print 192,000 vs 200,000 consensus.
Indeed, in my opinion, NFP report is very positive. I think the problem is forecasters are over confident about US economy. I still believe that US economy is developing as expect of FED, but it needs to take the time; all things must have a process. If they forecasted 190,000, everything would be different.
Regarding to EZ, I just have one word to express what is occurring: Stagnation. After some positive data is negative data. Hence, it’s hard to predict the overall performance of EZ. I think Mario Draghi was right to keep unchanged interest rate in the being time.
This week, I actually don’t know what is the move of EURUSD . E/U could correct after severe sell-off, or it follows market sentiment: continue .
What we have on the chart:
- A channel.
- Head and shoulder pattern and price crossed the neckline of the pattern
- Two major and price broke one of them.
- Price is above 23.6% Fib retracement, and it could move through this key support any time.
Any break through 23.6% Fib retracement would open the door for next targets: 1.3550 and 1.350 key support (38.2% Fib retracement)
I will wait until E/U breaks 23.6% Fib retracement and then hit a SHORT position. I will wait until Wednesday. Be patient, not rush. Market sentiment now favours SHORT position.
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