EURUSD H4, CCI divergence, CCI Trendline break Short

S 1.1776 at 15 min pullback up toward price swing high 1.1806(not shown) after CCI cross down thru up-trendline. How far it could run down before going above R at swing high is hard to tell on this chart (see other TF for that); but the size and direction of the H4 CCI pattern suggests that a downmove could easily run more than 5 days minimum. However, a 38.2% retr. of move up from 6.19.20 is roughly 1.1626, so that would be a good place to profit, at 150 pip.

Invalidated if CCI breaks north thru down-trendline. However, H1 CCI at 13:00 GMT 0n 8.02.20 has a low ~-200 CCI units but has noot yet shown any divergence, which suggests the high probability that we have not seen the price low f the move down from end of July. So I trust the short for now even though H4 CCI is touching a CCI down-trendline.

Comment:

My own SL is 1.18069 (notice market makers, lol).

Comment:

What failed was not CCI. I had written what a Long signal would be on H4, a break of CCI down-TL to the upside. I let down-bias talk me into ignoring it based on sideways mkt. I know better. As Woodie says, Gotta love the CCI.

I think this may have been first failure here- again it was bad call, ignoring H4 CCI of the chart traded- not bad CCI