What can we say? I think this sudden break down was pretty much unexpected. Anyway, as you see on financial mkts everything is possible. Any instrument that seems oversold already can become even more oversold. EURUSD collapsed like if everybody was long. I think the opposite is true. Now everybody is short of the pair even more.
As I wrote in my last post (pls see the link below), a correction will eventually happen, but ve never know from which level.
If we think a bit in a reflexive way, now everybody is super bearish on EUR, while all the news and possible actions from both FED and ECB is pretty much out, thus should be priced in. What can drive this lower now? Well, certanly a better than expected NFP could give one more push down, but sometimes, someone will take profit temporarely at least.
Daily: Not much comment, still very bearish, and even more oversold now. What was once a resistance, now have become a support in the bearish trend. ADX is extremely high, and DMI lines are very wide. It should correct, but again, I can not tell you when and how. One thing I am sure of: the volatility will seriously pick up, we will see higher ATR, so bigger moves in next coming days.
4 Hrs: Wide DMI here too, the trend is super bearish. Since Slow Stoch is reversing, there's some chance for a pull back to the first support at Kijun Sen, ard 1,3000+.
I do not include 1 Hr chart, but there you can clearly see 1,3000-1,3025 is now a strong support for bears.
Trade idea: not much to be honest. Unfortunately I was out of all the rest of my shorts at 1,3130 before ECB announcement, and of course as I saw it very oversold, I did not place the stop sell order to re-enter the trend, as I did before. Maybe we can try to do some bottom fishing here in small, like 0,5 trade unit with 1,2990 tgt and 1,2910 SL.
As I wrote in my last post (pls see the link below), a correction will eventually happen, but ve never know from which level.
If we think a bit in a reflexive way, now everybody is super bearish on EUR, while all the news and possible actions from both FED and ECB is pretty much out, thus should be priced in. What can drive this lower now? Well, certanly a better than expected NFP could give one more push down, but sometimes, someone will take profit temporarely at least.
Daily: Not much comment, still very bearish, and even more oversold now. What was once a resistance, now have become a support in the bearish trend. ADX is extremely high, and DMI lines are very wide. It should correct, but again, I can not tell you when and how. One thing I am sure of: the volatility will seriously pick up, we will see higher ATR, so bigger moves in next coming days.
4 Hrs: Wide DMI here too, the trend is super bearish. Since Slow Stoch is reversing, there's some chance for a pull back to the first support at Kijun Sen, ard 1,3000+.
I do not include 1 Hr chart, but there you can clearly see 1,3000-1,3025 is now a strong support for bears.
Trade idea: not much to be honest. Unfortunately I was out of all the rest of my shorts at 1,3130 before ECB announcement, and of course as I saw it very oversold, I did not place the stop sell order to re-enter the trend, as I did before. Maybe we can try to do some bottom fishing here in small, like 0,5 trade unit with 1,2990 tgt and 1,2910 SL.
