EUR/USD monetary policy updates, economic calendar analysis
1- Fed monetary policy updates >>
- Fed's Bostic said the central bank could taper between October and December -
- Last week's jobs reports including today's U.S. JOLTs job openings (Jun) report happened to be upbeat to add to the progress of reaching the fed's employment goal -
( THAT COULD BE CONSIDERED SOMEHOW AS UNOFFICIAL TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT SUPPORTED BY DATA, THE REASON WHY PRICE HELD BELOW 1.1750 )
( TAPERING, USUALLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY HAWKISH FED, USD POSITIVE )
2- ECB monetary policy updates >>
- There is no rush to signal the future of its pandemic bond buying according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. With almost 600 billion euros left to spend and the program running at least through the end of March, he says it would be much too early for a decision on whether to extend or phase out purchases -
(MEANS EXTENDED BOND BUYING, LONGER DOVISH, EUR NEGATIVE)
3- U.S. inflation updates >>
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Also Wednesday's inflation reports forecasts all show optimism on further drop in U.S. inflation -
- PRETTY HIGH BUT DESCENDING INFLATION -
4- EU inflation updates >>
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - ( INFLATION INDICATOR)
- RISING INFLATION -
CONCLUSION
- THE SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1770-1.1700 -
- ANY DROP IN GERMAN AND EU DATA ON TUESDAY MAY CHANGE PRICE RANGE TO 1.1770-1.1680 -
- PRICE WOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD BELOW 1.1700 ONLY IF INFLATION REPORT ON WEDNESDAY SHOWS DROP IN U.S CPI REPORTS, OR RISE IN GERMAN CPI REPORT -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1850-1.1650 -
SPOTLIGH
- AFTER TODAY'S JOBS DATA AND FOMC MEMBER BOSTIC SPEAK I DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA OF BUYING AT 1.1710 UNLESS IT IS SCALP OF 20 PIPS -
- BETTER TO SELL AT 1.1750 RETEST AND FOLLOW INFLATION REPORTS CPIs AND INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS THIS WEEK -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- Fed's Bostic said the central bank could taper between October and December -
- Last week's jobs reports including today's U.S. JOLTs job openings (Jun) report happened to be upbeat to add to the progress of reaching the fed's employment goal -
( THAT COULD BE CONSIDERED SOMEHOW AS UNOFFICIAL TAPER ANNOUNCEMENT SUPPORTED BY DATA, THE REASON WHY PRICE HELD BELOW 1.1750 )
( TAPERING, USUALLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY HAWKISH FED, USD POSITIVE )
2- ECB monetary policy updates >>
- There is no rush to signal the future of its pandemic bond buying according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks. With almost 600 billion euros left to spend and the program running at least through the end of March, he says it would be much too early for a decision on whether to extend or phase out purchases -
(MEANS EXTENDED BOND BUYING, LONGER DOVISH, EUR NEGATIVE)
3- U.S. inflation updates >>
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Also Wednesday's inflation reports forecasts all show optimism on further drop in U.S. inflation -
- PRETTY HIGH BUT DESCENDING INFLATION -
4- EU inflation updates >>
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - ( INFLATION INDICATOR)
- RISING INFLATION -
CONCLUSION
- THE SHORT TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1770-1.1700 -
- ANY DROP IN GERMAN AND EU DATA ON TUESDAY MAY CHANGE PRICE RANGE TO 1.1770-1.1680 -
- PRICE WOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD BELOW 1.1700 ONLY IF INFLATION REPORT ON WEDNESDAY SHOWS DROP IN U.S CPI REPORTS, OR RISE IN GERMAN CPI REPORT -
- LONG TERM PRICE RANGE IS 1.1850-1.1650 -
SPOTLIGH
- AFTER TODAY'S JOBS DATA AND FOMC MEMBER BOSTIC SPEAK I DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA OF BUYING AT 1.1710 UNLESS IT IS SCALP OF 20 PIPS -
- BETTER TO SELL AT 1.1750 RETEST AND FOLLOW INFLATION REPORTS CPIs AND INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS THIS WEEK -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -