What I've outlined is the previous areas of support the Euro has found (outlined by the grey boxes & green lines). And how price has once again tested that area, and found some support which has made for this current consolidation. The probability is that price can start making new monthly highs retracing back to the previous support turned resistance now. Which is outlined by the .618 / .50 . Only on a pullback to that area will I personally consider any "long term" short position on the euro . This chart can serve as a reason for caution for individuals that want to short the euro for the "long term". Remember the market is not a straight line down / up, and that it is susceptible to pullbacks before the long term trend continues its way.
Technical's I will be monitoring:
- Support area 1.05
- Pullback to Fibonacci resistance (previous support turned resistance)
- A monthly close above the 9 Moving Average
Do remember, trading isn't a science (especially technical trading) and there is no guarantee any analysis is 100% going to be valid. My analysis can be completely invalidated in the future so just take this analysis and use it at your own discretion.
Cheers, happy trading guys / girls! =)