Daniel.B

Not considering a "long term" short until a decent pullback

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
865 6 17
This is just a chart for technicals, not considering any potential market moves from Greece, or the rest of the Euro             zone. There's been enough discussion on that subject, and the reality is that nobody knows for sure what will happen and the ripple effect it may have on the markets. So arguing about it is really quite pointless, unless you have an entire group of well paid analysts dedicated to that area of the Euro-zone.

What I've outlined is the previous areas of support the Euro             has found (outlined by the grey boxes & green lines). And how price has once again tested that area, and found some support which has made for this current consolidation. The probability is that price can start making new monthly highs retracing back to the previous support turned resistance now. Which is outlined by the .618 / .50 Fibonacci retracement. Only on a pullback to that area will I personally consider any "long term" short position on the euro             . This chart can serve as a reason for caution for individuals that want to short the euro             for the "long term". Remember the market is not a straight line down / up, and that it is susceptible to pullbacks before the long term trend continues its way.

Technical's I will be monitoring:
  • Support area 1.05
  • Pullback to Fibonacci resistance (previous support turned resistance)

Do remember, trading isn't a science (especially technical trading) and there is no guarantee any analysis is 100% going to be valid. My analysis can be completely invalidated in the future so just take this analysis and use it at your own discretion.

Cheers, happy trading guys / girls! =)

Related Ideas

moneymaking
a year ago
Hey Daniel, Nice outlook. Especially monthly outlook gives us the bigger picture, which is also very important to keep in mind. Waiting for Greece situation to settle down a bit. All the best for the next week of trading,.
+1 Reply
Daniel.B moneymaking
a year ago
Thanks for the comment bro! Yea the monthly does give a very clear picture of what can potentially happen in the future. Same here keeping everything very conservative until the Greece situation settles down. All the best to you to bro! =)
+1 Reply
RichardChung
a year ago
wouldnt a pullback mean that the trend might be reversing and going up?
+1 Reply
Daniel.B RichardChung
a year ago
Yes, it would mean that on a daily chart the trend can very well reverse for a couple weeks and retrace back to the resistance area labeled on the chart. =)
Reply
TradingWisdoms
a year ago
Very nice chart, and great to see someone to look at big picture.

Thank you
+1 Reply
Daniel.B TradingWisdoms
a year ago
Thanks for the kind comment, appreciate it! =) And yea its always good to keep an eye on the big picture =)
Reply
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