sngyuchao

EURUSD Short: Potential wave 3 down

Short
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
EURUSD has an interesting wave count: The latest move has an overlapping wave 4 (against wave 1). Usually, that will invalidate the count, except that Elliott wave does cater for one such exception: leading diagonal (5-3-5-3-5). What this means is that for my count, I will ignore the possibility that the last move down (identified as leading diagonal) as a "Y" wave in a "W-X-Y" setup (move down from Feb-18).

It doesn't mean that the current setup is good for trading. In fact, I don't see a good entry point here. What is unclear is whether the recent move up will invalidate my preferred count and activate the alternate count (W-X-Y correction from Feb-18). A good entry point might be when there is clear 3 waves up that touches the end of previous wave 4 (~$1.1500). Look for reversal signs (e.g. bearish engulfing, shooting star, gravestone doji, etc.) then. Else, wait for a good entry point if EURUSD breaks a new low.

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