Another day in which we recorded declines in the vicinity of the support that indicated yesterday. Recorded a minimum level 1.0713. Today's data from Europe and the US were mixed and the market more he wondered how the negotiations will be resolved with Greece. None of the parties does not want to compromise the position of Greece becomes dangerous and difficult in the assessment. For the record, let me add that the Greeks do not want to go the way of reforms imposed by the Eurogroup, presenting his vision of development, which can not accept, inter alia, Germany. Begins to get more and more nervous, more so that the Greeks according to various sources in April will be insolvent, without the help of the EU. This situation pregnancy a common currency, and only positive solution, will allow a small rebound. Why small? In the near future the market will once again consider the increase in interest rates in the US, which, in the optimistic version may be introduced in September.
Returning to the short-term situation, consider what data and how the geopolitical situation will affect the course of steam discussed?
At first glance you should closely follow the conversation, the establishment of a compromise or lack thereof in the negotiations with Greece. The next market will pay attention to the data on inflation in the US, and the data from Europe, even if better can be ignored in the analysis. To sum it all should also be remembered that the ECB, the whole time leads QE program. As we know, the ECB, which is not alone in the struggle for economic development, without the help of politicians (reform), you will not be able to heal itself in Europe. Everything indicates that EUR / USD will tend to the south, and any increase will only be adjustments in a strong downtrend.
The economic calendar for Wednesday:
Germany: PMI German manufacturers
US: ADP-farm employment change and ISM manufacturing index
Forecast for Wednesday:
Due to the strong buying, draws up a chance for a small correction in the vicinity of 1.08, which at the moment is a strong resistance. This level is additionally supported by 38.2% fibo falls from 1.0948 to 1.0713. Assuming that to be is just a correction, the demand should not break this resistance. In my opinion, in the vicinity of 1.08 should include the supply side and direct course to the south, with a likely test the level of 1.07. In case of breaking the bottom should be expected that the course will be discussed couples head towards support for 1,0600-1,0620.
There is a possibility that the decline will be no adjustments to the 1.08 area.
The alternative version of the course will override the resistance of 1.08, which automatically becomes support. However, this option is not taken into consideration by me.
Returning to the short-term situation, consider what data and how the geopolitical situation will affect the course of steam discussed?
At first glance you should closely follow the conversation, the establishment of a compromise or lack thereof in the negotiations with Greece. The next market will pay attention to the data on inflation in the US, and the data from Europe, even if better can be ignored in the analysis. To sum it all should also be remembered that the ECB, the whole time leads QE program. As we know, the ECB, which is not alone in the struggle for economic development, without the help of politicians (reform), you will not be able to heal itself in Europe. Everything indicates that EUR / USD will tend to the south, and any increase will only be adjustments in a strong downtrend.
The economic calendar for Wednesday:
Germany: PMI German manufacturers
US: ADP-farm employment change and ISM manufacturing index
Forecast for Wednesday:
Due to the strong buying, draws up a chance for a small correction in the vicinity of 1.08, which at the moment is a strong resistance. This level is additionally supported by 38.2% fibo falls from 1.0948 to 1.0713. Assuming that to be is just a correction, the demand should not break this resistance. In my opinion, in the vicinity of 1.08 should include the supply side and direct course to the south, with a likely test the level of 1.07. In case of breaking the bottom should be expected that the course will be discussed couples head towards support for 1,0600-1,0620.
There is a possibility that the decline will be no adjustments to the 1.08 area.
The alternative version of the course will override the resistance of 1.08, which automatically becomes support. However, this option is not taken into consideration by me.