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#Elliot wave #eurusd #short #fourthwave

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
The last few days price action looks to have completed a very nice fourth wave in an 5 wave impulse beginning from late August highs.

Some of the key factors I would identify are
1) the scale of the moves, the first wave being similar in size and time is not surprising
2) the alternance principle in the retracement waves - 2 versus 4. Typically in a 5 wave set the two retracement waves - (2 and 4) will have different characters, in this case the 2nd wave was quite a sideways retracement following a first impulse off the 1.16-1.17 area highs, and conversely the 4th wave has been a violent move.
3) the 4th wave has just stopped short (as of now) of touching the 1st wave thus not violating the EW principles (otherwise the wave count could not be correct!).
4) The wave count "looks good" in my opinion anyway.

If this analysis is correct it would suggest a move through the sub-1.06 lows, and potentially and extended 5th wave the size of the 3rd (1.15 to 1.06) - this would target parity/1 in the next couple of months!

Let me know if you have any thoughts or observations on this

http://throughcalmandthroughstorms.wordpress.com
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