Kumowizard

EURUSD - Will correction ever happen?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
137 0 1
Of course it will. The question is always from where, from which inflection point?

Maybe from 1,3100? Well, on daily time frame here is an important key resistance. Meanwhile the momentum of recent rend is obviously the biggest among all trends (including bullish and bearish ) during last 2,5-3 years. Only in April-June/2012 we had such a high (or bit higher) ADX. Momentums change during the lifetime of a trend, as from time to time normally Price retraces to previous support/resistance levels. As we had no real pull back during this down move, sooner or later one will come. Ard 1,3350-1,3400 I was expecting for a small correction, but it did not happen, we just had some sideaway consolidation. Now at this 1,3100 key resistance I expect again some correction... but who knows, maybe it will again only move sideaway before reuming the bearish trend .
If this resistance will break, the next lower resistance level is at 1,2785 - 1,2800.

We have to keep in mind, this is a clear and strong bearish trend , so the main strategy has to be a sell on spikes. Some correction should happen, but not necessarely will. Recently I see some chance for the bearish momentum to drop back a bit, but even if price pulls back, the corrective target I don't see higher than 1,3250-1,3300. There we'll have to look for sell signals to re-enter the trend.
I closed my shorts ard 1,3360, but when I saw the new acceleration and the break of the sideaway move on the lower side, I re-opened some shorts again. I will do the same now. I take profit here on the ballance of short positions I have, and will wait. I will try to re-sell again ard 1,3250-1,3300, unless it breaks lower earlier, as then I won't hesitate to re-sell below the key resistance.

p.s.: The real question here is how much you are bearish for the Euro             and how much you are bullish for the USD at this point. As if your bias is towards a bearish EUR, then probably you have to start looking at other crosses, which may have a lot better risk reward to short.
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