FX analysis on 27/06 EUR/USD pair (range bound for the week)
Personal Opinion on the pair next week.
I foresee that the pair might be trading from 1.1846 to 1.1976 on the next week until next Friday NFP for further clues before resuming to the up or down side.
Fundamental view
US Monetary Policy
US ( Hawkish)
EUR/USD is still on an uptrend, on a daily timeframe. There is a shift in US monetary policy in June's FOMC meeting, Fed is more hawkish than expected. The expectation of 2 hikes. Fed mentions that recovery is smooth, and there are plans to scale back on the bond purchase (taper), as early as this year. Having said that, the adjustment is still data-dependent.
Europe ( Dovish)
On June ECB meeting, did not mention of scaling back the bond purchase. ECB is lagging behind other central in term of the timetable for tapering.
Personal opinion
There is a divergance in the monetary policy between the US and Europe.
Base on the daily covid infection rate, US cases seem to be drop significantly, due to the rollout of the mass vaccination plan.
Over the past week, on average around 8k to 12k per day.
Although the situation seems to be under control, it is still early to say if the vaccination plan is working, the delta variant might spread into the US cause a spike in the number of cases again.
Technical Analysis.
On the daily chart,
The pair is still in ascending triangle, forsee that the pair would be still in within the range-bound, and waiting for next Friday NFP for a clue.
On a daily time frame, it seems the pair is still on uptrend until the previous low is broken.
On a shorter time frame, there might be some downside for the pair, and it might test 1.19 level, and the failure to break through 1.20 psychological level,
I foresee that the pair might be trading from 1.1846 to 1.1976 on the next week until next Friday NFP for further clues before resuming to the up or down side.
Fundamental view
US Monetary Policy
US ( Hawkish)
EUR/USD is still on an uptrend, on a daily timeframe. There is a shift in US monetary policy in June's FOMC meeting, Fed is more hawkish than expected. The expectation of 2 hikes. Fed mentions that recovery is smooth, and there are plans to scale back on the bond purchase (taper), as early as this year. Having said that, the adjustment is still data-dependent.
Europe ( Dovish)
On June ECB meeting, did not mention of scaling back the bond purchase. ECB is lagging behind other central in term of the timetable for tapering.
Personal opinion
There is a divergance in the monetary policy between the US and Europe.
Base on the daily covid infection rate, US cases seem to be drop significantly, due to the rollout of the mass vaccination plan.
Over the past week, on average around 8k to 12k per day.
Although the situation seems to be under control, it is still early to say if the vaccination plan is working, the delta variant might spread into the US cause a spike in the number of cases again.
Technical Analysis.
On the daily chart,
The pair is still in ascending triangle, forsee that the pair would be still in within the range-bound, and waiting for next Friday NFP for a clue.
On a daily time frame, it seems the pair is still on uptrend until the previous low is broken.
On a shorter time frame, there might be some downside for the pair, and it might test 1.19 level, and the failure to break through 1.20 psychological level,