EUR/USD how today's U.S. data can affect price direction?
In this post I will mention how today's U.S. data (NFP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE) can affect the price direction?
- The forecasted data is expected to show a raise of 700K added jobs (NFP) and a modest drop to 5.7% in (unemployment rate), I expect the following possibilities,
1- 700K - 700K+ ( general price range of 1.1950-1.1750 does not change, downtrend would be expected to continue and break below 1.1800, with a maximum target of 1.1750 ).
2- 650K - 699K ( general price range of 1.1950-1.1750 does not change , pullbacks would not be ruled out (50%) within the general price range capped by 1.1930 (June 29 high) , followed by a downtrend continuation with a maximum target of 1.1750 ).
3- 649K - 649K- ( downtrend would be expected to lose momentum, pullbacks would not be ruled out within the general price range capped by 1.1950 ).
4- 600K- ( downtrend would lose its momentum, pullbacks would likely take place capped by 1.1975 (June 25 high), short positions would not be favored to be kept on hold).
- IT IS WISE TO COMBINE THE AWAITED ACTUAL (NFP) DATA THAT HAS THE BIGGER ROLE IN THE CONFIRMATION OF THE DOWNTREND CONTINUATION, WITH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AWAITED DATA -
- IF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (YOY) DATA RISE ABOVE THE FORECASTED 3.7% , WOULD PROBABLY RAISE INFLATION WORRIES AND CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION -
- FINALLY EVEN IF DATA HAPPENS TO BE UPBEAT, TODAY'S CLOSE IS NOT RULED OUT TO BE ABOVE 1.1850 AS INVESTORS WOULD PROBABLY PUSH FOR IT TO HOLD A HIGH EXCHANGE RATE DURING THE WEEKEND -
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750) -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- THE HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS DELTA STRAIN IS INDUCING RENEWED CURBS IN SOME EU COUNTRIES AS IT LOOMS LARGE OVER THE TOURISM SEASON IN EUROPE, WHILE IN U.S. DOES NOT PLAN TO REQUIRE THAT VISITORS NEED TO BE VACCINATED ( SIGNS FOR MORE EXPECTED DEMAND ON USD AND BETTER U.S. TOURISM RECOVERY ) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- The forecasted data is expected to show a raise of 700K added jobs (NFP) and a modest drop to 5.7% in (unemployment rate), I expect the following possibilities,
1- 700K - 700K+ ( general price range of 1.1950-1.1750 does not change, downtrend would be expected to continue and break below 1.1800, with a maximum target of 1.1750 ).
2- 650K - 699K ( general price range of 1.1950-1.1750 does not change , pullbacks would not be ruled out (50%) within the general price range capped by 1.1930 (June 29 high) , followed by a downtrend continuation with a maximum target of 1.1750 ).
3- 649K - 649K- ( downtrend would be expected to lose momentum, pullbacks would not be ruled out within the general price range capped by 1.1950 ).
4- 600K- ( downtrend would lose its momentum, pullbacks would likely take place capped by 1.1975 (June 25 high), short positions would not be favored to be kept on hold).
- IT IS WISE TO COMBINE THE AWAITED ACTUAL (NFP) DATA THAT HAS THE BIGGER ROLE IN THE CONFIRMATION OF THE DOWNTREND CONTINUATION, WITH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AWAITED DATA -
- IF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (YOY) DATA RISE ABOVE THE FORECASTED 3.7% , WOULD PROBABLY RAISE INFLATION WORRIES AND CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION -
- FINALLY EVEN IF DATA HAPPENS TO BE UPBEAT, TODAY'S CLOSE IS NOT RULED OUT TO BE ABOVE 1.1850 AS INVESTORS WOULD PROBABLY PUSH FOR IT TO HOLD A HIGH EXCHANGE RATE DURING THE WEEKEND -
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750) -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- THE HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS DELTA STRAIN IS INDUCING RENEWED CURBS IN SOME EU COUNTRIES AS IT LOOMS LARGE OVER THE TOURISM SEASON IN EUROPE, WHILE IN U.S. DOES NOT PLAN TO REQUIRE THAT VISITORS NEED TO BE VACCINATED ( SIGNS FOR MORE EXPECTED DEMAND ON USD AND BETTER U.S. TOURISM RECOVERY ) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -