vlad.adrian
Short

EURUSD - Failed bullish divergence

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
940 26 9
As of today, the impulse is red again. The bullish divergence failed , and because there was no rally, I think EURUSD             is very weak and much lower prices are coming.

Strong support at 1.20, followed by 1.18.

I have made my selling today, and I have my stop above 1.26
MertErten
2 years ago
hey vlad.
my guess would be a bounce back from 1.21 maybe first.
Reply
zedtrader
2 years ago
I don;t think your div failed, looks like your MACD divergence was perfect, and combined with the bullish piercing candlestick pattern and RSI could have been a good entry point, with TP at the downwards trendline (where we had a bearish MACD Div).
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vlad.adrian PRO zedtrader
2 years ago
Nope, that's a failed divergence all the way. A profitable divergence is when the trend is reversed for quite some time. It was not the case now. Lower prices are coming
+1 Reply
zedtrader vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Well but that MACD div would have warned you that we may slow down. Then the bull piercing candle with low at 1.23568 combined with other indicators could have been a warning that a temporary bottom is in, and given you a short term trade with a TP at the long term trendline. And that is exactly how it played out. But, I suppose it depends on if you are entering a trade for long or short term. I prefer to be in and out in under a week. So longer term that bull div doesn't work. Anyway was intended to be a compliment :) but you are right int hat that Div is no longer in play
+1 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO zedtrader
2 years ago
I know it was a compliment, and I traded it exactly how I said when I published the chart, and it was not a profitable trade. I don't play such short term swings, I expected much more, but I was wrong.
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zedtrader vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Well better luck next trade, Vlad!
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Patladj.
2 years ago
Its not the EUR is so weak. The dollar is so strong.
Also look at the bearish divergence at monthly period chart that happened on Apr-2014. It's very strong.
It also correlates with the confirmation of "the end of the fear mania" for the dollar collapsing: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dollar%20collapse
Buy USD, wait Silver to drop down to $9, then sell the dollars for Silver.
USD Strength has many much more to show.... pending explosion.
+1 Reply
Patladj. Patladj.
2 years ago
It will crash almost anything else. Including stocks and commodities
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vlad.adrian PRO Patladj.
2 years ago
Actually, today's break was all about the Euro being too weak.
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03.12.2014 Added 2/3 of the original position
snapshot
. Fundamentals call for a lower Euro
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10.12.2014 cut position in half
snapshot


The impulse is green, the candles are bullish, price is above the support level, and the bullish divergence is confirmed. However, I still keep my short position because I believe this fall in the dollar was caused because of the fall in USDJPY - stock markets. The dollar is still bullish
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22.01.2014 covered 2/3
snapshot
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Divergence Failures. I like this idea.
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Check the latest on NZDUSD, which got an amazing number of 60 views in 5 days !
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Not exactly a high traded instrument. Makes Sense
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I don't agree with that, it's a sorting problem with the charts. 60 views is way to little even for a not so popular instrument. After all, we are talking about a major currency...
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
kiwi ?

Compared to EUR/USD , USD/JPY, GBP/USD

I'd say it gets about 1/50 the exposure compared to Euro or Yen. If people don't trade it they don't want to take a look at it. Also you have people that have a large following using media platforms that bring in viewership. If your looking for exposure/popularity you might want to try social media and later your own website. Some even have radio shows here.

I for one, am not concerned about popularity or exposure. Only making $

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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Compared to those, of course it's not so popular.

No, I never wanted popularity :D. I don't have facebook, twitter, or a website. I don't have any contact information on my profile.
I see no reason to seek popularity as long as you can make money in this business. When you can't, well... a facebook account is a good idea. This is my personal view on the subject. I was just saying it's a pitty about that chart because we had some discussions in our skype room about the subject, and that chart perfectly proves my point. I don't want to get into details about this here, because it is public and everyone can see
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
snapshot


Suggestion: Use a compare with MACDL . Thank You LazyBear
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I don't know how that works, I am more comfortable with the classic MACD. It has done wonders for me :D
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
It's very easy to read the Leading MACD (L). You use it as indicator vs indicator divergence or also a leading divergent indication.
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
It looks very similar to an RSI to me... I absolutely hate RSI, never used it.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Alright just a suggestion. There's updated versions of old bench marked indicators and overlays that have really good results.
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vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
My personal opinion is that people care too much about indicators. Even if they have only one indicator, they look for some useless signals. I think simple does the trick
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Agree.

Markets are always evolving. Right now focus on what investors/traders are doing and keeping up with what politics and Central Bank decisions is working now.

Ex: everyone knows that BOJ is expanding it's balance sheet, so traders are shorting the YEN. However. traders are crowded. There is now more short interest on the Yen than ever before. IT's so powerful it's stopping the BOJ from debasing it's currency. Only way to get this to work for BOJ, is to shake out the YEN speculators. Knowing this makes you money or saves you from making a bad trade.
+1 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Not to forget the dollar bears. I see charts, articles, stories everywhere about how the dollar is over-extended, how it will collapse, how it is due to a correction... And this has been happening for more than 2 months... short the dollar against what ? Just buy the dollar on any correction. But no, people need to be smart, they need to counter trend. As I said when commenting another chart, there is a time to be against the herd and there is a time to be with the herd
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