Bull flag? What is bears can't make a lower low? Key 1,0930
As I wrote it yesterday on Twitter: EURUSD can not be considered as bearish until Price doesn't break below the Kumo!
Actually yesterday's bear puke (short covering, carry unwind) caused a massive pull back to the neutral zone of the thick Kumo. However I have more signs that it has chance to finally break out on the bullish side instead!
Daily:
- Ichimoku neutral, but note forward Kumo twist 26 days ahead (possibly bullish)
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish
- EWO neutral
- Most importantly Price is maybe setting up a bigger bullish flag??? Clearly the 100 WMA is the key level together with upper trendline ard 1,0930! If that breaks by any reason, bears will be in trouble and would squeeze market up to 1,14+
4H:
- High momentum pull back to Kumo yesterday. Some selling today, but will it be enough to close back below Kijun Sen or not? If bears can't make a relevant lower low, next wave up can cause a break of 1,0930 key and then the real pain starts.
Tenkan/Kijun weak bullish, Senkou lines close to a bullish cross!
- Heikin-Ashi is in corrective
- EWO neutral, but has possibly a bullish bias.
This NFP print was quite high, but as it is a back looking data, with no FED meeting any time soon, but with huge global turmoil and carry trade unwinds going on I think no one will really care! Actually people care only their risk! And the huge positioning of markets are still heavy long in risk assets, equities, and short US bonds and EURUSD as most popular trade.
Let me see if 1,08 holds for today. But the most important is: if bears can't make a lower low below 1,0730 (4H) then just watch next spike to 1,0900 - 1,0930!
Please note that so far it looks like a bull flag, but of course it is not sure. Top breakout has to validate this view.
The big picture is NEUTRAL, with some bullish bias.
Good luck, and don't forget to adjust your risk (position size), based on increased volatility!
Actually yesterday's bear puke (short covering, carry unwind) caused a massive pull back to the neutral zone of the thick Kumo. However I have more signs that it has chance to finally break out on the bullish side instead!
Daily:
- Ichimoku neutral, but note forward Kumo twist 26 days ahead (possibly bullish)
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish
- EWO neutral
- Most importantly Price is maybe setting up a bigger bullish flag??? Clearly the 100 WMA is the key level together with upper trendline ard 1,0930! If that breaks by any reason, bears will be in trouble and would squeeze market up to 1,14+
4H:
- High momentum pull back to Kumo yesterday. Some selling today, but will it be enough to close back below Kijun Sen or not? If bears can't make a relevant lower low, next wave up can cause a break of 1,0930 key and then the real pain starts.
Tenkan/Kijun weak bullish, Senkou lines close to a bullish cross!
- Heikin-Ashi is in corrective
- EWO neutral, but has possibly a bullish bias.
This NFP print was quite high, but as it is a back looking data, with no FED meeting any time soon, but with huge global turmoil and carry trade unwinds going on I think no one will really care! Actually people care only their risk! And the huge positioning of markets are still heavy long in risk assets, equities, and short US bonds and EURUSD as most popular trade.
Let me see if 1,08 holds for today. But the most important is: if bears can't make a lower low below 1,0730 (4H) then just watch next spike to 1,0900 - 1,0930!
Please note that so far it looks like a bull flag, but of course it is not sure. Top breakout has to validate this view.
The big picture is NEUTRAL, with some bullish bias.
Good luck, and don't forget to adjust your risk (position size), based on increased volatility!
