EUR/USD reasons why price retreated? downtrend continuation?
In this post I will mention why the downtrend's pullback lost momentum and what to expect ahead?
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES , WHY THE DOWNTREND'S PULLBACK LOST MOMENTUM?
1- Yesterday's data ( EU PMI showed only modest progress which was a motivation for bulls to attempt to break 1.1900 ).
2- Today's data ( drop in EU, Germany ZEW economic sentiment ) was the main reason to retreat from near 1.1900 zone and consolidate the bottom price range.
WHAT TO EXPECT AHEAD?
- IN FEW MINUTES WILL BE THE U.S. PMI DATA, I EXPECT THE FOLLOWING,
1- Upbeat result ( price would be expected to test a lower low in the downtrend ( to break below 1.1807 ) with a maximum of 1.1780-1.1750 zone, followed by a retreat above 1.1820.
2- Downbeat result ( price would be expected to consolidate (1.1820-1.1900) till the awaited FOMC meeting tomorrow (waiting for a hint on the tapering situation).
REASONS WHY THERE WAS A PULLBACK AT 1.1810 ZONE?
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- U.S. NFP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE data analysis ( despite the rise in the NFP data, still the unemployment rate edged up because more people voluntarily left their jobs and the number of job seekers increased ).
2- U.S. inflation updates ( surge in home prices is scary and will drive the prices of other assets higher, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.
3- U.S. monetary policy updates ( economy is recovering at a pace that won't rush the FED to taper yet ).
4- U.S. infrastructure spending updates ( Democrats are running the risk that holding out for additional trillions on child care and weakening the filibuster, they'll get nothing ).
5- EU-U.S. CALENDAR ANALYSIS ( signs for a slow in the pace of recovery in the U.S. and that the PMI and unemployment rate are in a better progress in EU ).
6- EU fiscal policy updates ( extended PEPP , extended fiscal support ).
PRICE RANGE UPDATES
- ACCORDING TO RECENT FUNDAMENTALS I WOULD SAY THAT THE DOWNTREND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE MOMENTUM -
- PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1800 - 1.2050) -
- IF NEXT FOMC MEETING HINTS FOR A DELAY IN TAPERING, WOULD BE A CONFIRMATION TO BREAK ABOVE 1.1990 -
- BUYING OPPORTUNTIES LIE BETWEEN (1.1820 - 1.1750 IF FAKES OUTs TAKE PLACES (NOT RULED OUT)) -
- ANY DOWNBEAT EU DATA AHEAD WOULD CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION (1.1800 - 1.1900) -
- ANY UPBEAT U.S. DATA WOULD NOT PUSH FOR LOWER LOWS BUT WOULD ALSO CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION (1.1800 - 1.1900) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES , WHY THE DOWNTREND'S PULLBACK LOST MOMENTUM?
1- Yesterday's data ( EU PMI showed only modest progress which was a motivation for bulls to attempt to break 1.1900 ).
2- Today's data ( drop in EU, Germany ZEW economic sentiment ) was the main reason to retreat from near 1.1900 zone and consolidate the bottom price range.
WHAT TO EXPECT AHEAD?
- IN FEW MINUTES WILL BE THE U.S. PMI DATA, I EXPECT THE FOLLOWING,
1- Upbeat result ( price would be expected to test a lower low in the downtrend ( to break below 1.1807 ) with a maximum of 1.1780-1.1750 zone, followed by a retreat above 1.1820.
2- Downbeat result ( price would be expected to consolidate (1.1820-1.1900) till the awaited FOMC meeting tomorrow (waiting for a hint on the tapering situation).
REASONS WHY THERE WAS A PULLBACK AT 1.1810 ZONE?
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
1- U.S. NFP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE data analysis ( despite the rise in the NFP data, still the unemployment rate edged up because more people voluntarily left their jobs and the number of job seekers increased ).
2- U.S. inflation updates ( surge in home prices is scary and will drive the prices of other assets higher, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said.
3- U.S. monetary policy updates ( economy is recovering at a pace that won't rush the FED to taper yet ).
4- U.S. infrastructure spending updates ( Democrats are running the risk that holding out for additional trillions on child care and weakening the filibuster, they'll get nothing ).
5- EU-U.S. CALENDAR ANALYSIS ( signs for a slow in the pace of recovery in the U.S. and that the PMI and unemployment rate are in a better progress in EU ).
6- EU fiscal policy updates ( extended PEPP , extended fiscal support ).
PRICE RANGE UPDATES
- ACCORDING TO RECENT FUNDAMENTALS I WOULD SAY THAT THE DOWNTREND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE MOMENTUM -
- PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1800 - 1.2050) -
- IF NEXT FOMC MEETING HINTS FOR A DELAY IN TAPERING, WOULD BE A CONFIRMATION TO BREAK ABOVE 1.1990 -
- BUYING OPPORTUNTIES LIE BETWEEN (1.1820 - 1.1750 IF FAKES OUTs TAKE PLACES (NOT RULED OUT)) -
- ANY DOWNBEAT EU DATA AHEAD WOULD CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION (1.1800 - 1.1900) -
- ANY UPBEAT U.S. DATA WOULD NOT PUSH FOR LOWER LOWS BUT WOULD ALSO CAUSE A BOTTOM RANGE CONSOLIDATION (1.1800 - 1.1900) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -