EURUSD OUtlook 1/30

First week of February should be interesting as NFP is on friday. Here is what i am seeing in the market from a liquidity perspective. Would like to ultimately see price melt. But it can do a number of things between now and Friday.

I will be posting the following on my YT channel

- Video style weekly outlooks
- Video style weekly recaps
- Risk management techniques
- Psychological conditioning techniques

My first video breaks down the concepts of liquidity, time, and price from a big picture perspective.

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im long on EU and doubled up position after a bullish BMS above the daily open and a return to the open.

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going BE

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looking for a quick expansion move

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added to my position. Not looking to see price trade below the weekly open until liquidity capture.

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Still in both, had to give the second more room and take on more risk, was with minimum risk, however this is not a risk management habit that will serve in the long term.

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Closed out for small profit. I didnt get the expansion I was looking for. know when to cut the bait.

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I dont usually trade asia, but I think EU could be cooking something off the breaker block. would need for asia low to not be violated by london to survive this. small risk.

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putting SL below the low, not looking to absorb significant drawdown on this, its either it or its not.

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Going fully BE

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moving well. the breaker block play was premature during NY session but the idea was valid. playing off the breaker during NY is sneaky and not ideal for participation as I usually dont trade asia.

Trade closed manually:

Closed out for profit before NY open. Puts me squarely back in the green for the week. I still believe price will complete TPs, but there is high impact news and I want to secure what I got. Would look to re-enter long if news gives a significant retracement during NY

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price continues to climb to initial targets. Which is fine. The goal is to make decisions with certainty. Price is always going to be moving, but you need to justify exposure based on analysis of the risk.

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looking for a short

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tapped in

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reducing risk

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geez, glad i was on he right side, the slippage would have been crazy if not. Probably should second guess trading news in the future.

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TPs set, SL to BE

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close to taken out at BE. just gonna let this play however it wants to. that 1min OB has its work cut out for it.

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well i'll be lol. SL in profit.

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taken out just over BE. all good. idea was valid. TPs were valid. market is in a weird state as a lot of news. Probably done for the day.

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short on EU with small risk

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reducing exposure

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risk free

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I think EU is bearish short term for a while, not a swing trader tho so wont be holding.

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the market isnt going to let up and give a retracement. everybody chasing the buy after yesterday's news will be forced to cover.

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would like an opportunity to add to the position. something like this.

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added to pos off 15 min FVG.

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not expecting another high.

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would like to see it expand quickly to the downside.

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the bullish breaker is a risk to the trade as it can reverse price. but my bias is that it fails.

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price will expand lower as they are forced to cover their positions.

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if you look at DXY, price did not trade above the open price. this represents a buyside inefficiency that price will want to fill after having achieved liquidity below.

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theoretical short added for education/learning, not a real position.

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TP1 Hit, 80% closed out. Theoretical trade would have been profitable.

Trade closed: target reached:

Decided to close entire position and book the trade completely as price hits an 8hr FVG.

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considering a low risk buy.

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tapped in, done for the day if it fails.

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reduced risk.

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going fully BE.

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added a TP

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theoretical add for analysis

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theoreticall wouldve been stopped out. 30min FVG below.

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added to position forreal.

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flying close to the sun on 2nd pos.

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price is moving favorably.

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added another position, this is pretty risky ill be honest. but for now i like the idea.

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4th position added. all other SL moved to BE, so that risk remains 1R for entire trade idea.

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closed first pos for profit so I could give these more room

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giving it till this low. risk management wasnt 100 today, but still in profit.

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looks like trade may survive, got a little carried away. Hubris. should have waited for afternoon session.

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limiting exposure as price turns favorable.

Trade closed: stop reached

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demo trading today as its NFP. but i would look for a short in this area if price returns.

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looking for a sell if i cant get a signal (demo)

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demo short

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didnt hold, taken out quickly.

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one more attempt similar entry

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demo

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TPs set

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blink and you miss it. the slippage would be crazy if you are on the wrong side. thats why we demo

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was not expecting that deep a retracement. anyones guess what price does next.

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Taken out BE after a ride. oh well. done for the week. probably wont trade on monday. back on tuesday.

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giving it one more chance on demo. this area really should act as resistance.

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looks to be moving well. added to position. however i feel like i have overtraded this week even though it has been profitable. will try to be a bit more measured into next week.

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high confidence of completion at this point.

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impatient traders would've bought at the first signs of "reversal" trying to buy low and sell high. without a narrative as to what price is going to achieve. price takes its time to achieve its targets in order to "bait" traders into bad positions and thus bring more liquidity into the market.

Price then achieves its targets capturing all of this induced liquidity along the way.

Yes, price is low, but is it low enough? if not why are you buying? its not low enough in my opinion. which means market makers are likely to keep pushing.

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3rd position added. SL moved to profit for the other 2.

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all SLs moved to BE of the last position.

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You can be right, or wrong, but price is not random. you need to have a basic understanding of how price delivers, and a hypothesis on what price is trying to achieve.

Then you need a risk management approach that accounts for when your hypothesis wrong.

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didnt see this 30 min FVG, giving them more room and taking on more risk on 3rd.

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SL back to BE for the third. not moving it any more. whatever happens happens. last update till either SL or TP.

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TP 1 hit and 80+% closed out. considering this trade over, small runners till final TP.

Back at it next week!

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all TPs hit, look like TP 2 was the weekly bottom level.