Today there was a collapse of declines. According to the forecast market led to a break 1.11 level, but supply surrendered on the first support 1.1070. Minimum dropped a little lower at 1.1066 and then saw the return movement upwards. The demand has led to strong growth today despite a better reading of the ISM index for services in the US (57.8 by 56.2 forecast). The new peak seen at 1.1223!
Yet few words about ISM, which today proved to be better. This indicator usually is a good omen, and often coincides with the subsequent changes in GDP. It is worth mentioning that this is the week except Friday's data on unemployment in the US, the most important figure of the week. To summarize the above opinion is quite likely that the slowdown in the US in the first quarter was temporary. This should awaken the appetite of the market to raise interest rates in late autumn.
Economic Calendar:
Wednesday:
USD 2:00 speaks member of the FOMC, Kocherlakota
9:15 EUR PMI index for services in Spain
9:45 EUR PMI index for services in Italy
9:50 EUR PMI for services in France
9:55 EUR PMI index for services in Germany
10:00 EUR Aggregate index by Markit PMI
10:00 EUR PMI for services
11:00 EUR Retail
14:15 USD ADP Employment Change in non-agricultural
14:30 USD Non-agricultural Productivity
14:30 USD Unit labor costs
15:15 USD speaks Fed Chairman Janet Yellen
The forecast for Wednesday:
Given today's very successful penetration level of 1.11 down, you should consider whether there currently are in the next wave of growth and declines from 1.1289 to 1.1066 was merely a correction of growth? Resistance at 1.12 was tested twice today. In this case, there is a high probability that the market will try to break 1.12 and attack resistance at 1.1250 and 1.1289. However, before it is possible to break the descent rate in the vicinity of 1,1140-65. Very strong support will be the level that is today's bottom 1.1066.
Tomorrow we will know the PMI for the Euro zone countries and data on retail sales. The data may weaken the dollar. Why? Economic sentiment in the euro zone countries has improved strongly in recent times. Also remember the afternoon of US data that could change the situation.
Yet few words about ISM, which today proved to be better. This indicator usually is a good omen, and often coincides with the subsequent changes in GDP. It is worth mentioning that this is the week except Friday's data on unemployment in the US, the most important figure of the week. To summarize the above opinion is quite likely that the slowdown in the US in the first quarter was temporary. This should awaken the appetite of the market to raise interest rates in late autumn.
Economic Calendar:
Wednesday:
USD 2:00 speaks member of the FOMC, Kocherlakota
9:15 EUR PMI index for services in Spain
9:45 EUR PMI index for services in Italy
9:50 EUR PMI for services in France
9:55 EUR PMI index for services in Germany
10:00 EUR Aggregate index by Markit PMI
10:00 EUR PMI for services
11:00 EUR Retail
14:15 USD ADP Employment Change in non-agricultural
14:30 USD Non-agricultural Productivity
14:30 USD Unit labor costs
15:15 USD speaks Fed Chairman Janet Yellen
The forecast for Wednesday:
Given today's very successful penetration level of 1.11 down, you should consider whether there currently are in the next wave of growth and declines from 1.1289 to 1.1066 was merely a correction of growth? Resistance at 1.12 was tested twice today. In this case, there is a high probability that the market will try to break 1.12 and attack resistance at 1.1250 and 1.1289. However, before it is possible to break the descent rate in the vicinity of 1,1140-65. Very strong support will be the level that is today's bottom 1.1066.
Tomorrow we will know the PMI for the Euro zone countries and data on retail sales. The data may weaken the dollar. Why? Economic sentiment in the euro zone countries has improved strongly in recent times. Also remember the afternoon of US data that could change the situation.