Monthly - a long-term channel set in motion in the 2008 crisis now appears to break up. EURUSD traded in its upper part for some time, then, this year, it moved outside and started to consolidate there. There is a potential resistance above 1.22000 which played some role in the past and seems to be respected again.
Conclusion: bullish - traded in the upper part of the value channel for a long time and broke up
Weekly - zooming in on the consolidation after a breakout, the price action appears to be neutral. The price has failed to make a new high (purple circles) but hasn't broken any previous lows yet. EURUSD balances in both upper and lower parts of the value channel equally. Lastly, there is a pin bar with a high volume. This is a clue that the reversal and bullish action are slightly more likely to take place.
Conclusion: neutral - could be very narrowly bullish, but the price has gone furthest outside of the channel since its formation and the reversal sign, the pin bar, has not had any follow-up yet.
Daily - looking at the potential breakout of a new channel, there appear to be several bullish signs. A few pins and a relatively big green bar running on an overwhelming volume. One thing is missing and that is a follow-up or rather lack of it. There is some buying, but the resolve to take the price higher is missing.
Also, look at the purple area. There is a complete absence of any market structure. If the market moves to the upside, it should deliver the price to the top of the area.
Conclusion: somewhat bullish - I will wait for a valid sign to enter the market. It has the potential to turn to the upside. We will be wiser aster Thursday as many events are scheduled then. Either way, from a risk-reward perspective, this is clearly a long opportunity.
