- Wedging into event risk. ATR going to a minimum.
Scenario 1: Rate Cut Disappointment
- Last rate cut disappointment resulted in approximately a 200 pip increase by end of day.
- This would be capped near 1.33 the 0.236 Fib line of the 7/25/12-2/1/13 rally.
- The negative fundamentals at that time resulted in a 500 pip decrease in the week following. Barring other unforeseen developments any rally's here would probably be short as well.
Scenario 2: Meets expectations
- Last projected cut that met expectations resulted in approximately a 100 pip decrease by end of day
- This would be supported by the recent channel near 1.305
- This scenario increases the likelihood of short term high volatility before falling out. (30-50 pip jump up before large move down)
Scenario 3: Rate Cut & Additional Easing
- This would see a test of 1.30, and depending on the additional measures could start the next leg to 1.265
- Expect a quick massive sell off if additional measures start to be announced.
Scenario 1: Rate Cut Disappointment
- Last rate cut disappointment resulted in approximately a 200 pip increase by end of day.
- This would be capped near 1.33 the 0.236 Fib line of the 7/25/12-2/1/13 rally.
- The negative fundamentals at that time resulted in a 500 pip decrease in the week following. Barring other unforeseen developments any rally's here would probably be short as well.
Scenario 2: Meets expectations
- Last projected cut that met expectations resulted in approximately a 100 pip decrease by end of day
- This would be supported by the recent channel near 1.305
- This scenario increases the likelihood of short term high volatility before falling out. (30-50 pip jump up before large move down)
Scenario 3: Rate Cut & Additional Easing
- This would see a test of 1.30, and depending on the additional measures could start the next leg to 1.265
- Expect a quick massive sell off if additional measures start to be announced.