Hi guys, I would like to share with you my long-term view about EURUSD. I hope it will be useful.
Let’s start from identifying primary trends (a primary trend last for several years). I’ve recognized 3 primary trends:
Period Duration Start price End price
#1 Oct’00 – Jul’08 93 M 0.82 1.60
#2 Jul’08 – Jan’17 102 M 1.60 1.03
#3 Jan’17 – today 59 M 1.03 1.15
PM#1 ended with the head and shoulders pattern. PM #2 ended in Jan’17. Since Jan’17 the price has been in sideways trend as the subsequent peak is lower than the previous one and the subsequent decline is higher than the previous one. The price movements in PM #3 fits into the symmetrical triangle pattern. Here I make an assumption about the type of this pattern (symmetrical triangle).
Key features of a symmetrical triangle:
• it is a continuation pattern
• the exit from the triangle occurs at a distance from ½ to 2/3 of its length
• the breakout or breakdown targets is equal to the distance between the initial high and low
• it consists of 5 waves
Key conclusions:
1. The price will remain inside this pattern until 2023.
2. We should expect an exit through the lower border after 2023.
PM #2 resistance was resistance for PM #2 and is the support level for PM #3.
I suppose the quotes will gravitate towards this level.
Thnx for reading. I will be glad to discuss it.
Best regards.
Let’s start from identifying primary trends (a primary trend last for several years). I’ve recognized 3 primary trends:
Period Duration Start price End price
#1 Oct’00 – Jul’08 93 M 0.82 1.60
#2 Jul’08 – Jan’17 102 M 1.60 1.03
#3 Jan’17 – today 59 M 1.03 1.15
PM#1 ended with the head and shoulders pattern. PM #2 ended in Jan’17. Since Jan’17 the price has been in sideways trend as the subsequent peak is lower than the previous one and the subsequent decline is higher than the previous one. The price movements in PM #3 fits into the symmetrical triangle pattern. Here I make an assumption about the type of this pattern (symmetrical triangle).
Key features of a symmetrical triangle:
• it is a continuation pattern
• the exit from the triangle occurs at a distance from ½ to 2/3 of its length
• the breakout or breakdown targets is equal to the distance between the initial high and low
• it consists of 5 waves
Key conclusions:
1. The price will remain inside this pattern until 2023.
2. We should expect an exit through the lower border after 2023.
PM #2 resistance was resistance for PM #2 and is the support level for PM #3.
I suppose the quotes will gravitate towards this level.
Thnx for reading. I will be glad to discuss it.
Best regards.