EURUSD Outlook 2/5 for FX:EURUSD by akhena10fx

Bearish on EU. I want to see it trade it 2023 open. Lets see how it goes.

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stayed off the charts today as I didnt expect much from the market after friday NFP, after mondays trading my outlook has changed slightly. still bearish, but looking for longs tomorrow. News might be a driver.

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looking for reasons to buy this thing

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bought off a shift on 1min, however this is somewhat risky as ideally I would have a 5 min OB, but we are in deep discount in a low news week, and have traded below the open of the year.

Looking to take this to the weekly open.

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not showing the strength i was hoping to see at the moment. NYSE in 15.

Trade closed: stop reached:

done for the day.

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last attempt with reduced risk.

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Sl to BE

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theoretical position was added, have exceeded my risk for the day and so did not want to take on more, but position would have held.

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didnt realize powell was speaking today. deleting second TP. one TP at the 12AM open for this one.

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Thanks Powell.

Trade closed: target reached:

bagged and tagged. Done for the day. (forreal this time)

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it looks likely that my original target of the weekly open will be met. glad with the analysis on this today, a little impatient with the execution, but was still able to take advantage of what was offered.

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or maybe not. no skin off my back either way.

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demo trading this afternoon session long. I still want the weekly open price.

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entered here

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Trade management approach.

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going break even early as the day comes to a close, realistically no reason for price to return IF the idea is correct.

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giving the 30min FVG some room to be great.

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30min FVG has had its say, hopefully no funny business from here on out. Looks like an asia/london completion.

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holding overnight.

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TP 1 almost tagged during london price has retraced significantly, SL still at BE. I did not see anywhere logical to move it to, but having so much profit disappear never feels great.

I still believe this will complete bullish target. once NY session gets going.

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small position added for NY session

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IF my analysis is still correct, we should see pretty quick expansion once price begins trading above the 12AM open.

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Encouraging price action. SL to BE for second position.

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would have bough here if i wasnt already loaded up

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had to give NY position back some risk

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hm had expected that to hold tbh. Re-evaluating.

Trade closed: stop reached:

SL Break even on the first position. Taking a break from the charts for the rest of the day, yall be easy!

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back in a long. I really dont think im wrong here.

if i take a second loss ill go lick my wounds for real.

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finally. Hallelujah, Alhamdulillah, etc etc.

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had to give it room. shitty price action today so far.

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Feel like I've been baited by the market today, will be taking a break to re-align psychologically and will return when I feel I am centered. that may be later this week or next week.

I will continue to update this trade however.

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SL back to break even. Just letting it play however it will.

Not executing any more.

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trade stopped out break even

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lol this is why i try to separate analysis from trading.

Because you know where price wants to go does not mean you will be given an opportunity to participate that is in line with your approach.

Looking for shorts from these levels as I am ultimately bearish.

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Here's what I need to see to justify a short. 1min chart.

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went short but price did not deliver as I expected as the highs remained in tact. BMS on the downside but not my preferred method of entry as it is more risky. However HTF is bearish in my opinion and price has retraded to a volume imbalance level. lets see how it plays.

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if this is the move im looking for, there is no reason to take profit until we are back at the 2023 low. Might change my mind and be more conservative. but for now yea these are the targets.

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encouraging.

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looks to be holding. SL at BE.

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the fact that no trading has occured below the daily open is a form of sellside inefficiency and imbalance price movement, that supports the idea that price will want to trade down there to rebalance and gives confidence to hold onto trade.

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the opportunity to add to the position MAY present here at the breaker x 1hr FVG.

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the algorithm is programmed to bait you into making bad decisions. Know what your criteria for entry is, and stick to it. If the market does not give that opportunity, then plan for the next.

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looks like the market didnt need much besides the 30min FVG. Will decide if there is still opportunity to add to position or not.

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Comfortable adding here after further breakdown with the understanding this is a riskier entry as there are imbalances above on the 1hr that have not been met.

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trade management structure currently.

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dont take the bait.

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If you have been following this trade (you really shouldn't treat a strangers opinions as a signal service) close the trade and take full profit here.

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When in an active trade, the question on your mind should always be, is the probability of further profit worth the risk of the loss of current profit. This will save you from regretting your decisions as you would have recognized and accepted this risk ahead of time.

The answer to this is personal and will vary from trader to trader and from trade to trade based on things like: profit goals, penchant for risk, current daily/weekly/monthly performance etc etc.

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I may not get my desired entry to add and thats okay. will leave orders for a little longer then delete.

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I decided to add a small position off the 3min OB. I am fairly confident in my HTF analysis but would have liked to have had an opportunity to add further into premium prices.

This represents a risk that I have decided I am comfortable with. I have moved my SL from original position further into profit to minimize overall exposure.

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2hr FVG is a risk to the added positions as it is right above stoploss level.

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risk reduced on added position. honestly I would want to see the expansion happen today as there would be less risk of significant retracement, but this might be an overnight hold.

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THEORETICAL additional position for if i was REALLY trying to push my edge.

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going break even on additional position early. theoretical add looks like it would have held as well. deleting theoretical from chart after this update to clean up chart.

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expecting additional position to be stopped out at break even unless there is significant expansion before the day closes.

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Moving SL back to original level for add to survive intraday spread increase.

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back to reducing risk on add.

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Being in tune with the market always feels good, but this is around where i feel my confidence slipping into hubris. into next week ill try to take my foot of the gas a bit, reduce my risk and engage less frequently.

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last update. signing off for the night. here is what I would like to see.

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stopped out at break even on second position and closed first position fully at the first TP. the pull of that 2hr FVG proved too attractive for london session.

Pleased with this result regardless.

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Considering a buy.