EURUSD - Sell and hold! It may be a nice strategic short
As it is a long term strategic recommendation, now we look at Daily chart only.
Pretty obvious, that ECB vs FED policy has started to diverge, and this divergence between the two will go a lot further, with Draghi being as dovish as long as possible, while Ms. Yellen clearly sounds like changing tone. I think markets do not really get the message. She is defenately not dovish. Not as dovish as she was supposed to be. They say ok, she is not that hawkish yet, but c'mon, does it mean she is dovish? Nope, I think that means she is smart! She is building credibility and starts steering the wheel of the monster truck very slowly. This is a fundamental change in the game.
But what is or what will be the game changer in technicals?
Look at the chart and you immediately see that the most important KEY LEVEL is just a step away from spot px. Yes, it is 1,3500, which is not just a horizontal support/resistance, but is in line with the long term uptrend line starting from Aug/2012. If EURUSD breaks through it, that will be a long term staretgic game changer in terms of technicals too.
Actually if you zoom in, you can see that with yesterday and today candles we may get a strong Tenkan/Kijun sell signal, which is good short entry signal in line with the possibly accelerating "new' downtrend (Price has benn below the Kumo for a while). With the break of 1,3500 Chikou Span will come under the price candles too with an open space ahead itself, giving another confirmation for the trend.
This reversal will last long. First measured tgt is ard 1,3000-1,3050. EURUSD may get there either in one or two ways, that we don't know. But from now on it is wise to look only sell on spikes... I mean if you want to hold a strategic position. How long will the new bearish trend last? That we don't know either, but Ichimoku will tell you when it's over. Just hold the shorts and trail your stops from time to time.
p.s.: On broader USD picture pls see the link below to USD Indx. Since yesterday it started to get more bullish momentum too. May enter a nice bullish trend from here.
Pretty obvious, that ECB vs FED policy has started to diverge, and this divergence between the two will go a lot further, with Draghi being as dovish as long as possible, while Ms. Yellen clearly sounds like changing tone. I think markets do not really get the message. She is defenately not dovish. Not as dovish as she was supposed to be. They say ok, she is not that hawkish yet, but c'mon, does it mean she is dovish? Nope, I think that means she is smart! She is building credibility and starts steering the wheel of the monster truck very slowly. This is a fundamental change in the game.
But what is or what will be the game changer in technicals?
Look at the chart and you immediately see that the most important KEY LEVEL is just a step away from spot px. Yes, it is 1,3500, which is not just a horizontal support/resistance, but is in line with the long term uptrend line starting from Aug/2012. If EURUSD breaks through it, that will be a long term staretgic game changer in terms of technicals too.
Actually if you zoom in, you can see that with yesterday and today candles we may get a strong Tenkan/Kijun sell signal, which is good short entry signal in line with the possibly accelerating "new' downtrend (Price has benn below the Kumo for a while). With the break of 1,3500 Chikou Span will come under the price candles too with an open space ahead itself, giving another confirmation for the trend.
This reversal will last long. First measured tgt is ard 1,3000-1,3050. EURUSD may get there either in one or two ways, that we don't know. But from now on it is wise to look only sell on spikes... I mean if you want to hold a strategic position. How long will the new bearish trend last? That we don't know either, but Ichimoku will tell you when it's over. Just hold the shorts and trail your stops from time to time.
p.s.: On broader USD picture pls see the link below to USD Indx. Since yesterday it started to get more bullish momentum too. May enter a nice bullish trend from here.
