EURUSD Outlook 2/12

CPI this week on tuesday, this is a preliminary outlook. but I wont be trading till after CPI so this may not be relevant come NY session tuesday. However I am expecting dollar strength and therefore weakness in XXXUSD pairs.

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taking a short here. if it holds will look to exit before CPI tomorrow.

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begun to reduce risk

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im going to go break even early. its the end of the day, if this isnt it i dont want to play around in drawdown.

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giving the OB some room. but will close out if I dont see encouraging price action early.

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stopped out for a small loss yesterday

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short on EU. looking to trade back to the weekly open after CPI pushes price into Weekly FVG.

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added to POS off 5min OB.

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gonna go ahead and move SL to just about BE. if it reverses here it is likely to take my original SL as well, so why take on the excess risk.

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SL at actual break even right now. Dont really see anywhere better to move it to so will just let this play out.

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wont be moving SL just yet as there is a 30min FVG that price could want to revisit. However I am aniticipating a bearish week, and price has sellside objectives to complete so i can easily see it not returning here. if it does I will be looking to add to position.

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i added a small position here. I dont think it taps the 30min FVG.

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in retrospect taking a trade right below an identified risk is bad form. Even if this holds it is not a good method. I need to focus more on high probability than "being right"

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reducing risk on add. it aint much, but its honest work.

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taken out on add as price trades into 30FVG. still looking to add.

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last shot. done with executions for the day.

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encouraging so far. all the stop losses are moved to recent high.

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took an unnecessary loss today after having identified a risk. Need to practice more patience and not executing till I have a rare price offering.

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My methods seem to be a bit of a high risk of wiping out my gains for increased gains. considering developing a more risk averse method in which I would lock in profits without watching them decline. Will think about this a bit more moving forward.

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TP1 hit and a majority closed out. less than 20% of original risk running till TP 2. will look for where into profit to move SL.

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plotting on more shorts.

Trade closed: target reached:

closed out of EU completely and decided no more shorts today as price is so far below the daily open.

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pleased with the decision to close as NY session did not really offer much more downside so far today.

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taking a sell from the breaker formed at the weekly open.

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SL at break even.

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extending TPs more in line with weekly outlook.

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while i am pleased with my ability to be flexible and move with the market, why was I trying to long GU and not taking profit when my overall outlook was bearish on XXUSD? will have to review and journal this weekend.

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will be interesting to see if london takes asia high. not expecting it to, would like to see it play off this OB. SL still at BE.

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TP1 hit, I thought it was going to make me wait till london. glad to secure here.

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TP2 Hit. done for this week. will put out an outlook for next week on my YT channel.

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This week I took 2 major trades in EU. In the first I recognized what was likely to be the weekly high, and sold to the weekly open. the second one was from the weekly open down to where I thought the weekly low was probable.

There is no need to hold a trade for longer (i.e. marrying the trade) if you are confident in your ability to recognize the opportunity when it presents and take advantage. It is better to lock in profits at a good level relative to your initial entry, book the trade, and look for further opportunities.

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demo trading this short.

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going break even

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cheeky add off the breaker, might have been a bit early.

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lol decidedly on the wrong side with that one, thats why we demo. I was hoping for another low but it looks like its already in. Price appears to be returning to the weekly open which is interesting. was looking for a decidedly bearish week. will see what afternoon session looks like.

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last attempt as I still think we close red. price trades to 12hr FVG during NY, taking out both asia and london highs. (This is a demo trade)

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added another position. will look to add one more at further breakdown. this is obviously riskier approach than I would take with live funds.

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3rd added. lets see if this plays.

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traded through the breaker, the OB is the last stand.

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4th position added. having a demo to use as an outlet helps me be more risk averse and measured with a live account. I can "push my edge" without incurring actual financial losses or gains, and see what techniques might be worth it to implement in a live account.

...or what I definitely shouldn't do.

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taken out for a loss on 2 and break even on the others.