#TechnicalAnalysis: Getting It Right And Wrong #forex $EUR $USD

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
623 6 7

There are infinite             ways to look at price action, from simple market geometries such as parallel lines creating channels, to AB=CD symmetrical projections, to 1.618-Fib derived projections, to advanced             patterns and other occult geometries. Question though, remains: Are we capable to forecast price action reliably?

In this WEEKLY view of the EURUSD             , there are infinite             ways to project patterns therein as well. What I have defined here are simple wedges , especially the overarching 1-2-3-4-5 one, which may or may not define the five point requirement of a Wolfe Wave (it's lacking the upward tilt to be a true Wolfe Wave ), or perhaps it may define the Three-Drive Pattern.

In fact, I would chance to say that the Elliott Wave theorist would even consider Point-5 as a convergent point of major and minor waves as well (which I know to be true, since I received a EW picture defining point-5 as such major confluent point.

In my own way, I replied that a smaller (light blue) Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") is nearing completion, and that it may n fact threaten to contradict all above pattern expectations ( 3-Drives , EW wave count). And then again, it may not.

My point here is that predictive analysis and forecasting, which is what I specialize in, cannot come from patterns or price action alone. There are other filters as well as non-price events that have to come into play to help the prospective trader to elevate a trading idea to a plan.

Although I do use Fibs, trendlines , and patterns, I have also moved on to other occult ways to anticipate a price action, but the most important feature of the trade is to remain disciplined and flexible.

In remaining disciplined, one has to first plan a trade, then trade the plan. But also remain flexible by anticipating an unforeseen pattern, a new structural level defining a significant trendline , ... etc.

Here, I will leave you with this chart, which can easily be made your own to manipulate the lines, and perhaps offer me and the other readers a piece of your mind, an idea, or a lesson. I will leave this chart active for this purpose.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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20 MAY 2014 - Update:

One month ago, I offered this geometry, whose median was used to visually appreciate a probable decline in price.

Since then, price did cross below the median, and the suggested pattern is gaining added credence - A more recent analysis of the EURUSD was offered within a smaller timeframe, but here too, a smaller timeframe offered a similar bearish outlook.

I will shove this chart back into its dusty shelves, considering the timeframe, but feel free to call my attention to it at an ulterior date if I decide to delay any technical comment on it.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis/Forecasting
+2 Reply
Pip_Alchemist 4xForecaster
+1 Reply
Hi David, please draw your upper trend line from 2008 high and see what you got. I am kind of bearish for mid term.
+1 Reply
@Gudian - Sorry I never notice your comment. But yes, time did prove your directional bias right - David
Hi David, I have just recently been taking an interest in the analysis that you conduct, and the factors that you include to support your analysis. As you rightly allude to, the outcomes of cyclical economic events cannot be factored in. However, with economic events taken into account, your analysis provides a very detailed, and quite accurate view of potential trade entry and and exit. Keep up the good work.
@2trade - Very much appreciate your kind and supportive feedback.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
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