EverythingForex
Short

EURUSD: OVERWHELMING Confluence For A SELL!

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2675 27 31
When there is THIS many factors all coming together for a perfect storm of evidence for a SELL, it just CAN'T BE IGNORED! Let me list the ways:

1. COMPLETED Bearish Bat (purple)
2. Prices are now within the PRZ of a COMPLETED Bearish Butterfly (yellow)
3. Prices are within earshot of completing ANOTHER Bearish Bat (blue)
4. Very near to completing a POTENTIAL Bearish Crab (black outline)
5. Prices are hitting the top of the contracting triangle trend line
6. Prices are within a zone between the top of the triangle and the MAJOR SR Structure that is also the BAMM line of the larger POTENTIAL Bearish Bat on the DAILY TF
7. The RSI is extremely OVERBOUGHT
8. COMPLETED AB=CD pattern (red)

You know, if I looked deeper, I'm sure to find even more reasons to SELL! But really, do you need any more? Now, there are times when we have lots of reasons to make a trade and for whatever reason, it still doesn't work out. Some may say it's too obvious and that it can't be that easy! Well, my response to that is you must trade what you see! Don't overthink it. I've said it before many times and I'll keep saying it. No matter how many patterns, lines, fibs, etc. I draw on the chart, the market will do what it will do. Think of it this way....given all of the above factors...WOULD YOU BUY???

MY TRADE PLAN
I've made a killing off this pair in the last month or so. It has been so predictable! No reason to stop here! That's not to brag. It's to stay confident and positive about what I am doing. I have closed all LONG positions I have held till now. It's NOT because I am expecting any major reversal. I am not. In fact, I am still VERY BULLISH on this pair. But after having bagged almost 1000 pips, it's a good time to take profits and then look for another chance to go LONG. But for now, I am going SHORT in the case of the triangle pattern being completed. However, I am very, very aware that the ABC zigzag scenario is a real possibility and I am prepared to close any SHORTS in favor of going LONG again should price action tell me so.

If you are not already SHORT by way of the trade I posted last week (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: SELL@NOW UPDATE #1: EURUSD: Wave (v) Projected Ending", then a good time to get SHORT would be any price now or you can wait a few more pips and see if the higher POTENTIAL Bat pattern will fill. It's very close to being completed so if you really want to get in the SHORT trade, trying to save a few pips by waiting really doesn't make much difference.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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Great job!! Since we have so many patterns that have come together, what is your projected short target?
+2 Reply
I don't give projections for profit targets other than the standard TP1 @.382 and TP2@.618 retrace of the previous wave. Since what I am posting is about what I am thinking and doing and am NOT giving out trades signals, I must be honest and say that for myself, I really watch price action and decide whether to take profits or not, and where and how much I'm going to take instead of just setting solid targets. So that is why I do not post profit targets and stop losses. There are also standard S/L as well but I think setting stop losses are more personal choice depending on your own trading plan and risk tolerance. Hope that makes sense!
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EverythingForex PRO EverythingForex
That being said, on this SHORT trade, depending on the price action as prices decline, I may hold all SHORT positions all the way down to the lower trend line of the triangle OR I may close all SHORTS at only the TP1 on a .382 retrace of the previous wave up. Depends on what the PA is telling me to do. Good luck!
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I think you may be wrong with the Crab pattern. The crab formation is usually between 0.382 to 0.5 fibonacci on the AB retracement
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EverythingForex PRO ShaharyarZafar
Incorrect, sir. Crabs have a .382 - ,618 AB.
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CommoditiesTrader EverythingForex
Regardless, trade was blown out which is easy when relying on patterns. Be objective not subjective.
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EverythingForex PRO CommoditiesTrader
Trade was blown out NOT because of patterns, dude. Patterns, just like any other method do not work 100% of the time. It is no harder to get "blown out" using patterns than any other method. But patterns have a higher conversion % than most other methods. You don't need to believe they work. They just do. Case in point. It was a pattern that triggered my trade in this pair that bagged me over +500 pips on this pair. Objectivity is EXACTLY the thing that patterns give you. I don't bash other people's methods. If you have your method, hope it bagged you 500+ pips.
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Good job....
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Thanks but we'll see if it was good or not today.....
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we are also seeing a possible Elliot wave and just the 3th completed
i do agree with you in all the patterns but actually the pair it is ranging from 1.0823 to 1.1460 so there is quite alot of pips in this range and after all yours analysis i am short to and see if works and then if working pay more attention to the prior resistance now support at 1.1221
thank you
Riccardo
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EverythingForex PRO RiccardoBartolini
Thanks for your post and comment. Yes, that is a possibility. A possibility that I have mentioned many times. If the recent uptrend is a wave 3, it is probably a wave 3 of (1). If this pair follows the contracting triangle scenario, then the last impulsive move was also a wave 3-type movement but rather was a wave c of an abc, Either way, as far as wave counts are concerned, the reason I've called for a short trade now is because in both scenarios, there would be a retracement wave coming. If it was a wave 3, then I am expecting a wave 4 retrace (probably a short one to the .382 of the recent uptrend) then a strong wave 5 to break above resistance (the BAMM line SR structure). If in the contracting triangle scenario, then this next wave is a wave (D). Good luck!
+1 Reply
another reason: psychological resistance at round number 1.14000
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EverythingForex PRO farid_ardavani
IMHO, this round number does not hold major significance. It's been violated too many times. Just my opinion though.
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Another scenario resistance could reach to 1.15 to 1.2
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If prices closes past 1.14656, then the trade is closed.
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Trade closed. took a -80 pip loss. Back to the drawing board....literally!
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Don_Corleone PRO EverythingForex
I was stoped out on my short for this one.Let's see what market will bring us now
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This impulsive rally is a different thing altogether...we can't short this. We need a retracement to go long now.
+3 Reply
Long EURUSD began when DXY began to breakdown with sentiment. I projected 8-handle by mid summer, but looks like itll be the end of summer. Technicals, when combined with cross-market analysis, really pointed the way.

Central banks are going to be challenged. The "sure thing" carry trades will be forced to unwind.

The DXY Setting Up for Breakout or Breakdown Ahead of Non-farm?
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IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
Indeed, my favorite would be to short the jpy pairs for now.
EURUSD looks tricky, same as gold.
+1 Reply
I don't know. JPY could be just as tricky. In January, I posted how the markets up to that point were shaping up like 2008. In regards to forex, I pointed out how the dollar rose much like it has over the last year, and yen (which was battered lower) began to recovery quickly suggesting a potential climax.

I like we can see something similar happen, but I'm more position-based than day trader. Sooner or later these moves have to be digested and could make great flips!
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IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
Looks pretty clear to me so far.
snapshot

I'll short on retracement.
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By all means. I would quote Keynes, but I'm sure you already know. Timing is everything, but really there's already been a retracement up over 200 from bottom. This is likely shorts will be added to. Maybe see what 120 has in store.
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IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
I stick to my methodology.
It tells me to short the retracement with all I got, and I will.
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OK. That's what I was saying. Long JPY lol Oh, well.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO CommoditiesTrader
Should be interesting, a potential position trade...was what I meant.
Good luck to us all!
+1 Reply
Yes! How about that crude price..! Good luck.
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