On the , we have the 50 day crossing the 200 day on June 6, the first time this has happened since the beginning of an uptrend in May 2017.
There is a potential forming, which is labeled on the . There have been two overhead rejections, and two bounces from the . On the first bounce labeled "1", there was a candle that failed to generate a significant rally - then on "2", there was not nearly as much buying pressure present off the bounce, signaling a likely continuation of the downtrend once the triangle is broken.
The Fed is further along than the ECB when it comes to raising rates. The U.S. economy continues to experience strong growth in almost all sectors which has led the Fed to steadily increase interest rates. On June 14th, the ECB announced rates would remain unchanged which led to a reaction for the EUR/USD .
While the U.S. has been no stranger to political instability, the EU is increasingly being affected by eurosceptic forces. The Italian populist government recently gained power and is implementing anti-EU policies and has considered dropping the Euro /leaving the Eurozone. Angela Merkel could potentially be ousted as Chancellor and thus the de factor leader of the EU over migrant policies.
A break of 1.151 and a retest of the demand-turned-supply zone will be the entry point for the short. I will consider scaling in and scaling out as the trade unfolds.