The impact of the Fed’s decision/statement was somewhat muted on the charts. The euro is seen hovering a few pips ahead of the 1.24 handle seen on the H4 timeframe after fading session highs of 1.2474, and the US dollar index continues to cling to 89.00.
Weekly movement remains confined within the walls of a weekly printed at 1.2569-1.2287. This zone also highlights a weekly (green lines):
• 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.2604 taken from the high 1.3993.
• 50.0% Fib resistance at 1.2644 taken from the high 1.4940.
• 38.2% Fib resistance at 1.2519 taken from the high 1.6038.
Daily flow, on the other hand, is seen encased between a daily Quasimodo at 1.2495 and a daily coming in at 1.2359. Should weekly sellers push the unit lower, the next downside target seen beyond 1.2359 is a formed at 1.2246-1.2164.
To confirm intent from the aforementioned weekly supply, a daily close beneath the current daily is vital, in our opinion. This would likely see the H4 candles engulf a H4 support extended from the low 1.2165, and open up the possibility for an approach down to the 1.23 handle (seen nearby is a H4 Fib cluster comprised of a 61.8% Fib support at 1.2307 and a 38.2% Fib support at 1.2302).
On account of the above, intraday shorts could be an option beneath the H4 , targeting 1.23 as an initial take-profit zone.
Data points to consider: US unemployment claims at 1.30pm; US ISM manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT .