EverythingForex
Long

TRADE: EURUSD: BUY@1.11860 Completed Bat + Wave Count

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
In one of my previous posts on this pair, I talked about this bullish bat (see Related Ideas: " EURUSD: Almost Completed Bullish Bat May Signal End Of Wave 4")
EURUSD: Almost Completed Bullish Bat May Signal End Of Wave 4

Now the bat has been filled. In addition, I have readjusted my wave count and it shows that now the wave (v) of the ABC 5-3-5 zigzag pattern may be completed and that wave 4 has just stopped short of the wave 1 end point. This is a good place to get LONG on this pair. The upcoming wave 5 should be pretty interesting!

For those that are more conservative, waiting until prices actually break through the channel it is currently in (see Related Ideas: "EURUSD: How To Trade The EUR") would be wise. However, I trade what I see. And with the completed bat and my wave count, my charts is telling me to BUY.

MY TRADE PLAN
Since today is Friday, I'm not expecting any major move here. And in addition, by taking this trade now, I will be holding it over the weekend. So there is always the risk of this market gapping down on Monday open. But that is a risk I am willing to take and more importantly, that my trading plan allows me to take. Never break any of your trading plan's rules. Not taking the trade now would not be a bad idea and waiting until the market opens on Monday would be wise as well. By doing so, being that it's Friday, I don't think it would make much difference. But to each his own.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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Teekid PRO
a year ago
MY entry 1.11678, TP ONE:1.12515
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FIDAGOHAR Teekid
a year ago
and your stop
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Teekid PRO FIDAGOHAR
a year ago
i am short .1.11537 is my stop.
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EverythingForex PRO Teekid
a year ago
Ummm, I think you mean you are LONG, right?
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FIDAGOHAR
a year ago
sir where would be your stop and take profit please?
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EverythingForex PRO FIDAGOHAR
a year ago
I don't know if you are new to trading but you must set SL according to your own trading plan. By asking this question, it tells me that you most likely do not have one. It's dangerous and foolish to trade without one. ALL successful traders have their own trading plan and that trading plan will tell you where you are to put your SL on every trade. My SL does not necessarily fit within your risk tolerance. This is why I do not provide it always. Having said that, when trading patterns like this bat, the standard SL will be the X point of the pattern because anything below that invalidates the pattern. However, although the pattern is there and completed, I am not trading ONLY on the pattern but also other factors as well. Therefore, my SL is NOT the X point of the bat THIS TIME. The same applies to the TP. I usually will post my TP after the trade is confirmed to and going towards my TP. No use to count profits before then. But again, if trading on the pattern, the pattern has it's own standard TP1 and TP2 (.386 and .618 retrace of the previous leg). GL!
+1 Reply
FIDAGOHAR EverythingForex
a year ago
thanks your efforts are highly appreciated...
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Major Index futures closing soon, mayyyy take it down a bit further as all are trending up going into the close. This will drive the Euro down. Unless the futures change direction and start going bearish. With The US Indices down slightly, I would imagine we will see the never ending weekend happy ending ramp job.
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EverythingForex PRO coondawg71
a year ago
Sure, that's possible. But I don't trade on correlations. Only what I see in front of me. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying I totally ignore correlations. But really, if you try to correlate everything, you'll drive yourself bat-s**t crazy! And also, as I stated in my post, it's a risk trading into the weekend and it's a risk I am willing to take and that my trading plan allows me to take. GL and have a great weekend! Don't let the ramp job bite you! ;-)
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coondawg71 PRO EverythingForex
a year ago
Yep, I'm with you. Just a better price was my point.
+1 Reply
Good luck.
I think it'll continue to fall lower, but we'll see.
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EverythingForex PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thanks. it's possible. If so, I'm prepared to accept the loss. The risk:reward is worth the trade. Have a good weekend!
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IvanLabrie PRO EverythingForex
a year ago
For sure!
That's the key.
I'm short, check out my analysis, let me know what you think:
EURUSD: Emerging 6 month uptrend

See comments. :)
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EverythingForex PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I respect your time and mode analysis. But I can't read your comments very well on your chart! Maybe it's my bad eyesight but the words are too small for me to make out clearly. But judging from just looking at your chart, it seems you are actually bullish on EUR, right? Or are you saying long-term you are but are short-term bearish? Well, we'll see very soon next week what will happen with it being a heavy news release week. GL!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO EverythingForex
a year ago
Long term yes. Need to see confirmation, it's a monthly uptrend forming a base. Parity might be a pipedream, can't be sure yet.
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russelldaily
a year ago
Just wondered why you didn't start X leg @ 1.1013. It lowers the Bat completion to 1.1095.
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EverythingForex PRO russelldaily
a year ago
This same question was asked of me by another person on the previous post about this pair. Here's what I said:

"Sure, It could be. But there is a reason for drawing X where I did. Locating the proper XA leg is a skill in itself. Without that mastering that skill, your patterns will be hit or miss. But as you know if you have been following me for awhile that I am not a pure pattern trader. I use the art of harmonic wave trading. Basically, combining advanced patterns with Elliot wave theory principles. The reason that I did not draw X lower is because if I did, the bat's D point would then violate my wave count. Do you see that?"

Having said that, this bat is somewhat "forced" and not "natural". But the wave count rules are more important to me than the pattern. Patterns, the way I use them, complement my wave count and not the other way around. So in this instance, it necessitated the use of a "forced" bat. It is still a valid bat for sure. But on a scale of 1-10, 10 being the best, this bat may only be about a 7. Still, a bat is a bat is a bat. Prices can for sure still drop lower before turning. But if you want to catch the potential upcoming wave 5 up, gotta withstand the drawdown. GL!
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russelldaily EverythingForex
a year ago
I guess we'll have to agree to totally disagree.
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EverythingForex PRO russelldaily
a year ago
No problem. I don't expect that everyone will agree with me about everything. I am only a human and I can be wrong. Thanks for the comment though. Appreciate the different POV.
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EverythingForex,

I am a big bull on USOIL now. Since EURUSD is highly positively correlated with OIL, your count further strengthens my oil bull thesis.

But I do have a question for you, why don't you trade OIL, seems to be of low risks and high profit potentials? Also, why do you think EURUSD is positively correlated with OIL?

Thanks in advance!
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EverythingForex PRO coolingla
a year ago
I wasn't really inclined to answer this question to be honest as my charts and trading are based on technicals. Not fundamentals. But I'll give it a shot. The economist in me likes this question. The chartist does not. First, I don't trade USOIL or really, anything other than the majors (with a couple of exceptions in the minors) because there is almost always more than enough opportunities to be had in just trading the majors. My philosophy on trading psychology is that you should not trade too many pairs. Information overload, divided attention, correlation anxiety, etc. are all reasons why. Ever heard the phrase "Jack of all trades, master at none"? In trading, you MUST BE a master at whatever trading style you follow and whichever pairs you trade. By following and trading only a few pairs, you really get a good sense of those pairs and their characteristics. Yes, each pair has it's own personality just like humans. Only makes sense since all price movement is just based on human emotions and thinking.

Anyway, I'm sure USOIL has some very good trading opps, but so does many other pairs. Grass is not always greener on the other side.

As for the USOIL correlation with EURUSD, maybe it's not so much that USOIL is strongly correlating with the EUR as much as it is negatively correlated with the USD for now. You see, oil is predominantly bought and sold all over the world using USD as its settlement currency. When you have a strong dollar, that means oil is cheaper for USA to buy but not necessarily so for the european countries.in the EZ. Since oil is settled in USD, they must basically exchange EUR for USD to buy oil. So when USD is strong, the EUR is weak and vice-versa USD and EUR have a strong inverse correlation. Personally, because I mainly trade the majors, I use USD/JPY as a correlation gauge against the EURUSD since USDJPY has a strong positive correlation with the DXY. The USDJPY has a correlation coefficient of about >-70% with the EURUSD (using the Pearson scale).

So what is happening is that as the USD gets weaker (as I am projecting it will), the EUR gets stronger. Therefore, one euro buys more oil than before. Why is this important? Remember, although the U.S. is the largest SINGLE consumer of oil, the rest of the world combined (including of course the fastest growing country in oil consumption: China) far out consumes more oil than the U.S. alone (sorry, I don't have the actual facts and figures but this is just my opinion and I am not writing a thesis so I don't need to spend my time searching for the facts). So what happens when you have a weaker dollar now that you know oil transactions are dollar-based? Oil is cheaper for non-US buyers! So what do the non-US buyers do when the dollar weakens? They buy and stockpile oil like crazy! So when the rest of the world is buying more oil upon a weaker dollar, the demand for oil will go up. At least that is the perceived notion. But forex trading and speculative trading in general is based on perceived notions. Perception is reality in the trading world. So more demand for oil, the higher the USOIL and other oil-based indexes will rise. At the same time, so does the EUR.

From a trader's POV, another factor that can't be ignored is with speculative commodities trading. Large institutional traders use oil as a hedge in trading. So when the perception that oil prices will go higher prevails, oil futures will rise and USD futures will fall because those institutional traders will settle oil LONG and short the USD. So that is my long-winded macro-economic explanation as to why USOIL and EUR seem to have a strong positive correlation.

Whew! Haven't written this much on econ-theory since I don't remember when!
+4 Reply
coolingla PRO EverythingForex
a year ago
Thanks EverythingForex for answering my questions!

I think that a good investor/trader is almost always a good philosopher. I can see the philosopher in you between the lines :-)

I am sure you are making big money but I do have a suggestion for you, don't know if you are already doing it, that is to set aside certain percentage of your gains for long (relatively) term investments. The biggest problem of a trader is that he can't make extra large bets. A long term investor based on fundamentals can place large bets with very limited risks. That's why a Warren Buffet out performs a Jesse Livermore in the long run.

Your answer is greatly appreciated.
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EverythingForex PRO coolingla
a year ago
When you have that much money, you can trade anyway you like. Trading using fundamentals requires more of a battle chest. Fundamentals require much more of a "buy and hold, sell and hold" mentality. Unless you have deep pockets, that's not so easy to do. Each person defines his/her success by different standards. Believe it or not, not everyone wants to be Warren Buffet! Some define success just by being able to live their own lifestyle comfortably. Not being "burdened" by having that much money! Frankly, I don't want nor need THAT much money! Yes, to be sure, I wish I were wealthy but how many millions, billions is enough? If I had that much money, I'd probably give a lot of it away and keep only what I need to live my life. So I guess I would never get that wealthy since I'd donate much of it before I ever accumulate that much money.

I don't want to make "extra large bets" because extra large bets means even more stress! And when you say "extra large bets", that automatically implies "extra large" in relation to each person's own account. 1 million is not extra large to Mr. Buffet. But it is to you and I. I'm sure that if Mr. Buffet made a "bet" of 50 billion, that would be extra large to even him and would cause him a lot of stress! Something he'd never do! Trading is best done with as less stress as possible in order to be able to trade with a clear mind. That's why you never ever trade with your rent money!

As for long-term investments, I don't feel the need to do that. As my "short-term" investments (i.e., trades) outperform any long-term investments by a long shot. Besides, I like trading. I don't want to get up everyday just to "check" on my long term investment to see how it's doing and that's it. Even when wealthy, I could see myself still doing day trading! Maybe just a little less is all. I like the thrill I guess.
+2 Reply
coolingla PRO EverythingForex
a year ago
I totally understand. Trading is exciting for you. For a true trader, being right is even more important than the money itself.

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aibek coolingla
a year ago
Friends, indeed the good talk is a matter of Good question and Good answer, thank you both I enjoyed reading and somewhere saw myself between the lines!
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Perhaps x starts at 1.10344?
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joe.francis.507 joe.francis.507
a year ago
snapshot
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joe.francis.507 joe.francis.507
a year ago
snapshot
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joe.francis.507 joe.francis.507
a year ago
snapshot


Started to short this
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EverythingForex PRO joe.francis.507
a year ago
GL to you. I rarely trade on the 15M TF. Only when bored or no market action. And then, I'd rather go golfing! ;-)
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joe.francis.507 EverythingForex
a year ago
snapshot


Long here?
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EverythingForex PRO joe.francis.507
a year ago
again, I'm sure it could. But that would require me to re-evaluate and adjust my wave count. I will do so if prices violate my current wave count but not until then.
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Beursorder
a year ago
Nice analysis. I went in long on friday at 1.11934. Perhaps a bit too high but again you have to take your entry somewhere...
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adan3ter
a year ago
Everythingforex, I, and am sure many others greatly appreciate the effort you put into analysing your charts and sharing them with us. Keep up the hard work and the sharing of knowledge. Many thanks. It's motivation for me to push forward when sometimes staring at charts becomes more confusion than directiom.
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joe.francis.507 adan3ter
a year ago
Absolutely!! He is an awesome person and a great inspiration. Thank you E
verythingForex.
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EverythingForex PRO joe.francis.507
a year ago
Awwww...geez. Thanks! But Dalai Lama, I am not!
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EverythingForex PRO adan3ter
a year ago
Glad I can help in some small way!
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snapshot

Sorry, I've never posted a chart before so I don't know if this correct. I drew this up a couple of days ago , and I'm sure you have as well. I totally forgot to go back to it somehow, as I have impatiently waited, searching for a better long entry. It just might have been right there for me the whole time, for some reason I never went back to the daily. If there is no chart, I apologize. Trying to figure it out.
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EverythingForex PRO Heelfan23
a year ago
Welcome to chart posting! But are you just showing us your chart or is there a question/comment here?
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msalotto PRO
a year ago
The thing is if u see the decline from 1.17 high to the friday close , we see a clear 5 wave impulsive decline. I think we have already topped EUR at 1.17 and new lows below 1.05 should be on the card in coming weeks. You may see a rally in next week which i believe will be corrective in 3 waves.. lets see
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hikagemono msalotto
a year ago
I'm short this pair with my SL @1.2064. Nice & tight.
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EverythingForex PRO hikagemono
a year ago
Good luck to you! And that's not being sarcastic. I always wish the best for all regardless agree or disagree with me. Again, I'm not infallible. I can always be wrong. But if I am, I'm prepared for that. And prepared to shift to bearish mode if analysis says so. Be like water so says Bruce Lee. Be like water!
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EverythingForex PRO msalotto
a year ago
Well, that's one way to interpret it. As you should know, wave counts are really subjective and can be interpreted in many different ways. Yours being one way and mine another. But thanks for the different POV. It's appreciated.
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snapshot
How does your wave count look?
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EverythingForex PRO joe.francis.507
a year ago
Joe, your wave count cannot be correct. wave 3 is shorter than wave 5 which is a violation of one the 3 basic rules of Elliott waves.
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rodolfo.bianchet EverythingForex
a year ago
Doesn' t the theory says that wawe 3 cannot be the shortest of the impulsive vawes? in this case the shortest vawe is 1 . which rule are you referring ?
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joe.francis.507 rodolfo.bianchet
a year ago
To my knowledge yes. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest. My theory on way wave 5 is extended is just because how strong of a trend we are in.
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EverythingForex PRO rodolfo.bianchet
a year ago
Yes, that is the correct rule. It can't be the shortest but isn't necessarily the longest. But in most cases, when labeling the 5 waves, you want to see wave 3 be the longest if the sub-waves allow it. In this case, the sub-wave count definitely can support wave 3 being longer. But again, as I've said many times,having the "correct" wave count really isn't that important. Most important is that your wave count leads in the correct overall direction unless of course you are trying to trade the sub-waves. Which is not recommended unless you are a scalp trader in which case, your preferred choice of tools would not be elliott waves.
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rodolfo.bianchet EverythingForex
a year ago
ok great . thanks for the answer .
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FXROB
a year ago
HI WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THIS? I PUBLICITED THIS IN 10.07.2015.
snapshot
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EverythingForex PRO FXROB
a year ago
Well, that's a very nice looking cypher but it's just way too long a TF to be able to trade it. If using it to just show that this pair has some room to go down, yeah. It's good. And I agree. There is plenty of room left for this pair to go down. Just not anytime soon. Good chart though. Thanks!
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