- E/U broke the main I show on the chart.
- E/U pierced the 1.3622, that is the support of double tops pattern.
It means E/U pierced all important support levels.
The odds of trade E/U now is SELL, but everything is not simple like we think.
There are still more possibilities could happen next week. With a lot of important data are released, the future trend of E/U will be decided.
Next week is the week of economic reports.
+ Markit Service PMI of Germany
+Markit Service PMI of EU
+ CPI (YoY) of Germany
+Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) of Germany
+ Factory Order of US
+ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
+ Unemployment Rate of Germany
+CPI (YoY) of EU
+ FOMC Minutes
+Retail Sales of EU
+ Unemployment Rate of EU
+ECB Interest Rate decision + statement
+ NFP report
Those are key reports next week : How can you anticipate the move of market with such lot of data ?. It's impossible. I can't forecast exactly what happen. All levels I show on the chart have no value because it can be break any time.
I recommend traders should trade following news : trade after data is released. It's better than anticipate before releasing the report.
Indeed, I can predict surely that US economic data might be good : 70% possibility.
+ ISM positive
+ FOMC Minutes : positive
+ADP + NFP : positive
However, I cannot predict what will happen in EU.
I think ECB will keep their unchanged because they told that it's unnecessary to change policy in the being time.
I have 4 choices on the table now:
- EU data positive, US data positive : The probability is 25% : EURUSD reaches 1.3755.
- EU data negative, US data positive: The probability is 40% : EURUSD reaches 1.34
- EU data positive ,US data negative: The probability is 15% : EURUSD reaches 1.38
- EU data negative, US data negative: The probability is 20%: EURUSD reaches 1.3523
In the mean time, I will open a position: SHORT E/U to 1.3523, stop loss at 1.37
And I will observe the data before giving further idea.