Sforex
Short

Idea for E/U next week

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
414 3 0
What we had last week:

- E/U broke the main trend line I show on the chart.

- E/U pierced the support level 1.3622, that is the support of double tops pattern.

It means E/U pierced all important support levels.

The odds of trade E/U now is SELL, but everything is not simple like we think.

There are still more possibilities could happen next week. With a lot of important data are released, the future trend of E/U will be decided.

Next week is the week of economic reports.

- Monday:
+ Markit Service PMI of Germany
+Markit Service PMI of EU
+ CPI             (YoY) of Germany
+Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) of Germany

+ Factory Order of US
+ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday
+ Unemployment Rate of Germany
+CPI (YoY) of EU

Wednesday
+ FOMC Minutes
+ADP report
+Retail Sales of EU
+ Unemployment Rate of EU

- Thursday
+ECB Interest Rate decision + monetary policy statement

- Friday
+ NFP report

Those are key reports next week : How can you anticipate the move of market with such lot of data ?. It's impossible. I can't forecast exactly what happen. All support and resistance levels I show on the chart have no value because it can be break any time.

I recommend traders should trade following news : trade after data is released. It's better than anticipate before releasing the report.

Indeed, I can predict surely that US economic data might be good : 70% possibility.
+ ISM positive
+ FOMC Minutes : positive
+ADP + NFP : positive

However, I cannot predict what will happen in EU.

I think ECB will keep their monetary policy unchanged because they told that it's unnecessary to change policy in the being time.

I have 4 choices on the table now:

- EU data positive, US data positive : The probability is 25% : EURUSD             reaches 1.3755.

- EU data negative, US data positive: The probability is 40% : EURUSD             reaches 1.34

- EU data positive ,US data negative: The probability is 15% : EURUSD             reaches 1.38

- EU data negative, US data negative: The probability is 20%: EURUSD             reaches 1.3523


In the mean time, I will open a position: SHORT E/U to 1.3523, stop loss at 1.37

And I will observe the data before giving further idea.
stockremark
2 years ago
Indeed very complex; signs of EU recovery, but also of problems (see France)
Reply
Sforex PRO stockremark
2 years ago
In EU, just Germany is to perform well, the rest is very bad. I didn't see any recovery signal of Italia, Spain, and now France also faces some big problem. But the uptrend of E/U recently didn't reflect what happening in EU zone.
Reply
Sforex PRO
2 years ago
Hit 1.3523 . 68.7 pips
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out