RobertPapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (04.08-01.05)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Another good week for the euro             , which strengthened against the dollar for the third week in a row. This is a result of weaker data from the US, which last met. The strength of the euro             may indicate that the euro             strengthened against the dollar 7 session in a row and this is the worst run for the US dollar             since 2013. However, on Friday the dollar began to gain, and better data from the United States. A mix of poor and good data, the Fed could support the view that the problems in the economy are transitory and in the near future the situation should be improved. In this case, we should expect a decline in unemployment to 5.4% in Q3-Q4. But before we will see a fall in unemployment and rise in the dollar, most likely we will see a few weaker readings that will be the result of a weaker first quarter.
Before us another week in which the market will particularly pay attention to Friday's US data on unemployment rate and change in nonfarm employment . It also will track the occurrence of Yanet Yellen on Wednesday, which will refer to the latest data from the US. On Tuesday we will know the ISM index in the US.
Monday:
9:15 EUR PMI for manufacturing in Spain
9:45 EUR PMI manufacturing index in Italy            
9:50 EUR PMI manufacturing index in France
9:55 EUR PMI manufacturing index in Germany
10:00 EUR PMI for industry
16:00 USD Order factories
21:10 USD FOMC member's speech, Williams

Forecast for Monday:

After the recent strong increases in the market should lead to a correction. currency pair is heavily subscribed. In this case, the EUR / USD should direct you down and break the support level 1.1141, which will open the way towards 1.11 and 1,1034-50. First support is 1.1141 as the lower limit of channel growth, which should give answer whether the market is ready for a correction. If the support will be defended then we can see another wave up. In this case, the market will try to break through the last high of 1.1289. A positive test may open the way towards 1.14.
In my view, the preferred option should be a variant of a correction, which should break support at 1.1141 and then head for the 1,1034-50.
Note: tomorrow we will see a number of important data from Europe and, if very strong readings, technical analysis , which assumes declines, may be subdued euphoria and demand will lead to growth.
Comments are welcome
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