Technician
Short

#EURUSD Forecast: Following the Trend ~ (Cancelled)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
3843 44 31
Update: Cancelled this trade due to FOMC today.

A simple trade based on short-term trend identification.

The assumption is:

If the bearish trend to remain in play, the latest swing high and resistance area from 1.0640-1.0683 should hold. Having said that, a short position based on this assumption is favored. Supported as well by the falling trend line for the ongoing bearish wave. In addition to Stochastic nearing overbought area, which usually a shorting signal when the price is trading in a bearish trend .

Chances of trade Invalidation will significantly increase if the price manages to take and hold above the 1.0682 swing high and the falling trend line . As our structure of lower highs and lower lows could be damaged and the reasoning behind the trade will not be valid anymore. Therefore, I have put my stop loss just above that resistance area .

Thank you for reading , be one of the first members of my new trading portal, check my new website http://thefxchannel.com/ , vote and subscribe. Thank you

Trading Criteria:
1.Trades are taken in two units
2.First unit would be closed at first target
3.Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4.Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game
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Good luck, keep your stops tight..
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My best regards
Technician
I've already placed the same trade! Like it.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP SwingAndPip
Good luck mate
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Hey Technician, I was also bearish on this pair. But I could not find a valid reason to short this pair, until I read your analysis. Thanks once again for sharing as always and Good Luck to You :)
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HexVex moneymaking
You need a miracle not luck if you can't think of a reason to short EURUSD :S
+2 Reply
;)
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drebg HexVex
"MIRACLE" WAS FOMC! I liked the setup but not so close the meeting!
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Also, I just wanted to ask that, when would your new trading portal will be available? =)
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Thanks mate.. probably around 1 month
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moneymaking Technician
Awesome, Can't wait :)
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Thanks for sharing... just closed out my sell position with this,, feel the bull are still in play. Better to jump back in after a retest/ & or breakout ?
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You mean on the long side?
-1 Reply
vdubus PRO Technician
I was long on this last night for 50 pips then shorted on the pivot, This pair is in correlation with EURGBP & EURJPY which I also shorted. All EURJPY broke out of the up trend but failed to fall. Your analysis show clear indication that the upper resistance channel has yet to be hit. I prefer to be in the money with in the first candle I enter at, than to play guessing games.
snapshot
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I trade at 1/400 risk, so marginal error can be expensive.
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Im looking at EURGBP current pattern formation as a potential break out to the upside
snapshot
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sell orders just got triggered lol
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Great view mate.. Haven't took any position on this yet as the price didnt hit entry yet. I will not take this trade before fomc..
-1 Reply
Good luck mate if you are already in. With FOMC around the corner, will rather sit out than taking fresh trades. Patiently waiting for higher value around 1.0800 to short.
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vdubus PRO Casey_Yeo
already stopped out lol, my buy orders got triggered above the trend on eurgbp & eurusd. & closed out +30 pips on the pivot I'll wait now for a pull back.
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Yes exactly, i am not taking this trade now
-1 Reply
Hello you technical guys. Since I discovered this website, I increasingly have been reading your thoughts and analyses, not being a trader myself. Now I have a question for you : it seems there is a correlation between the exchange rate of the Euro and the crude oil price. Only in 2009 (and a bit of 2010) this correlation was non-existent, but that was a tubulent period anyway. So this leads me to (1) do you agree there is a correlation and (2) if so, how would you explain that. Kind regards, Peter.
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Technician TOP PeterDe Clercq
In my view, i don't see any fundamental correlation between both!
-1 Reply
Mates, I cancelled this trade for now due to FOMC coming soon.. So will be updating later.
-1 Reply
HexVex Technician
Very wise since spreads could go wild.
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Today FOMC will probably be BIG
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Big and freaky by the looks of Yen, Swissy, & Aussie strength. The only predictable move going on presently that I can see is Mexican Peso weakness. Weird. Maybe there is a slap in the face USD streangth reversal surprise on the way :)
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Maybe markets could be ready for a real squeeze now squeeze ;)
-1 Reply
HexVex Technician
Hahahaha!
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HexVex Technician
I got squeezed out of my (relatively massive) Euro shorts just before Christmas on a day similar to this. Hence the name change and drink problem :)
Reply
Name change, did you use a different name here before?
-1 Reply
HexVex Technician
Yeah.. My real one.
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This is the very reason I do not play currencies. Last time was Franc.
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Technician TOP CosmicDust
Allow me to disagree mate.. This is totally different than the franc case, this volatility was expected and that's why i cancelled the trade before the FOMC..
+1 Reply
CosmicDust Technician
Just curious, what made you canceled the trade before FOMC?
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Technician TOP CosmicDust
Its a big event, i usually avoid entries just before major events. Especially for short term trades, volatility would probably kill the trade.
-1 Reply
CosmicDust Technician
OK, thanks.
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HexVex CosmicDust
I'm not him but to hazard a guess the word risk comes to mind :) Haven't you been buying and selling spikes today ?
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??
-1 Reply
HexVex Technician
I went long dollar on every spike down to resistances drawn on my charts from past price action. Brought gold sold dax sold gold bought dax sold sek massively :) etc
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HexVex CosmicDust
That was the first time I lost money on a trade I didn't have. At least we all know what 'segregated accounts' mean now. Not surprisingly after the CHF implosion 'segregated accounts' is a sexy sales pitch for every broker out there now :)
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Mate, they did'nt have segregated accounts? i mean they pretended that had but they actually didnt?
-1 Reply
HexVex Technician
No one knew the difference. Or everyone assumed their account was.. You know... Their account... And other peoples accounts were... You know... Other peoples accounts. Surprisingly the problem is communism ;) You see 1000 accounts individually have more costs than if you lump it into one unit which means more profit for the brokerage firm. Back in 2000- US law required all 401K (retirement) participants to have segregated accounts. But this was for stocks. Mass market FX was just beginning then and a lot of treasure must have gone into campaign funds to keep it less regulated.
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I got it now. Good night all :)
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