Kumowizard
Long

EURUSD - Return of the Bull

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
328 2 1
Daily Kumo Cloud blocked the bearish move, and other indicators show pretty obviously that EUR strength against USD is back. Theoretically on the 4 Hrs trading time frame the buy entry setup looks like this: Limit Buy 1,3765 OCO             Stop Buy 1,3810.

There was already a higher probability for the Long yesterday in the early European trading hours, when the cross moved above 1,3745-50. The 4 Hrs Ichimoku setup was already weak bullish , supported by the daily indicators and also 1 Hr             gave a full bullish buy signal there. Frankly speaking I missed this buy opportunity yesterday. Since I don't know how big the upside will be on longs, I would rather not chase it and go long with a 1,3810 stop buy, but would try to catch a pullback.
If the pullback happens earlier, then 1,3760 +/- area is gonna be a good risk/reard buy level. If it breaks higher a pull back will happen later, so we'll still have chance to buy it ard 1,3800 +/-, but by then the bullish setup will be more firm and you can place a higher stop for the long position. As you see, trading is always about measuring probabilities, risk/reward and patience.
aslamusman
2 years ago
Missed buy myself yesterday, will wait for the pullback, might even sell with pull back today, and then long position same as yours on buy, worried about the FOMC minutes, in two hours, what's your opinion?
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Kumowizard PRO aslamusman
2 years ago
Hi, I read your comment only recently. So sorry I couldn't answer you in time yesterday. But I would like to share one general opinion which may help you for the future:
Never be worried about any headlines, news, dataflow! My opinion is that the only thing you have to care about is what the chart telling you, what the price action is like! It is impossible to follow the infinite number of fundamental datas and factors, all the news, etc. Those can cause only short term whipsaws and a lot of noise. That is one reason I do not daytrade at all. On the intraday field probabilities are changing too quickly, and you can not win against HFTs and machines. The payoff for daytraders is not good at all. I don't say there are not good DT guys out there. There might be a few who make money on it. But does it worth the time you have to spend with it? It consumes way too much energy, causes a lot of stress, etc.
However in the long run the general sentiment and psichology is the only thing that matter and what actually drive prices up or down making an instrument finally trending. Everything else is distilled in price action immediately. And honestly, how many times have you seen that after a knee jerk reaction price finally went the other way, against the direction you had expected to be reasonable, based on the actual data or news? How many times you have felt "Oh God I fckn don't understand..." why mkt is reacting this way, as all the macro and data flow, pricing, etc. should push it the other side? That is because positionning was probably too much into that certain direction before, or because of something else, but in fact we should never ever pay attention to it. I have realised myself not a long time ago, that it is totally useless even to read any economy comments, listen to talks or look at the news. OK, it is important in the way that if there's e.g. an NFP day, or FED decision, you have to know that short term volatility can go to extreme a bit. But what you only have to read is the chart! Read it as the old guys read the "Tape" a few decades ago. And follow what the chart is telling you. Try to realise and follow the trend.

Trend following strategies have the best risk reward, and still, within a major trend you can play counter trends for few days or weeks, so you can act as a swing trader too.
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