Early in the year I drew a projected up-slope for 2016, following the historical uptrend norm. The rise in the Euro
against the US Dollar
soon accelerated to a faster slope, but recent weeks have seen a down-swing, bringing us back to the projected line. The BREXIT referendum (scheduled for 23 June 2016) is obviously making investors nervous about betting on the Euro
(and GBP) for fear of the currency plunging in the event of a "Leave" decision. Judging by the chart alone, one would guess that the down-swing has now reached its bottom point, but the nervousness about BREXIT could drive it further down. The most likely result would be to Remain in the EU, in which case we will see a spike. The next few days will show whether the down-swing is over or will continue until close to referendum day.