In the last week we saw strong appreciation of the euro against the dollar, at 2.51%. Recently, similar increases we have seen in late April and early May of this year. The main factor for the strong sales dollar, concerns remain about the global slowdown, due to the deteriorating economic condition of China. As a consequence, it may give rise to concerns that the Fed will keep interest rate low for an extended period of time. Wednesday's minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC was a pigeon. It is worth noting that the FOMC meeting took place against the People's Bank of China, which on August 11 decided to devalue the yuan. In this case, it may be that the sentiment among members of the Fed could be more dovish. In practice, this means that we will not see interest rate hikes in September.
Other factors that supported the single currency, they were good readings in the PMI for the euro zone and mixed US data
What awaits us in the coming week and what the macroeconomic data it is worth paying attention to?
Investors will certainly keep a close eye on Monday of a member of the FOMC - Dennis Lockhart, who recently spoke out boldly, on the September interest rate hikes.
On Tuesday we will know the GDP reading for Germany and the local Ifo business sentiment index. The United States will flow data on PMI and the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board and data on sales of new property.
On Wednesday we will know the basic order of fixed assets in the US, and his speech will be chairman of the Bank of New , William C. Dudley.
The most important figure of the week will no doubt be Thursday's data from the US, when we will know the GDP for the second quarter. Then look at the market on the sale of real estate in progress.
On Friday we will know the CPI for Spain and Germany and the personal expenses of Americans. It will also pay attention to the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan.
Forecast for Monday for EUR / USD.
Last week there was a break a number of key resistance. Market without problems in the second half of the week has broken the levels 1.1129 / 1.1215 / 1.1277 / 1.1340 while the maximum recorded at the level of 1.1387. The currency pair is quite heavily bought, which might suggest a correction recent increases, but taking into account the prevailing sentiment, we may be witnessing the test level 1.1465 (maximum of May 15). In this case, the demand will have to overcome resistances at levels 1.1411 and 1.1438. In my opinion attempt to break this resistance should not go, which in turn should lead to a stronger correction (1,1215-45?).
If, however, at the beginning of the week will see the start of a correction, no test higher price levels, we can count the drops in the vicinity of 1,1215-45. In this case, the supply in the first place, it will be moving in the direction of the support at the level of 1.1277.