"Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value."

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
638 2 15
On chart.
Comment: Pattern tradings are working well.
Trading harmonic patterns is simple. If the trend line is crossed then wait for the pullback and follow the C leg to complete targets fibs. Euro is just crossed. Finding more patterns from smaller time frame are good ideas too. They are fractals so smaller fractals should be everywhere.
Comment: We can not rule out the impulse before Dec. ECB but this month DXY has done.
Comment: Sorry for the late...
Comment: Things are becoming a little clear now.
If we have SPX500 and XAUUSD both rising that means the Dollar's compensation is incoming. That's the over heat phase. We could have pegged USDCNY at 6.8 platform for 2 years from 2017-2019 like 2008-2010. When USDCNY is stabled then the EURUSD will catch up weighted JPY at 1.2434 (more high could be at 1.32 )and USDJPY will be ranging and falling a bit for waiting the intervention of BOJ 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games for all good. ( USDJPY is still a bit falling because Dollar is falling harder than the weighted JPY, weighted JPY is falling too but less hard). All those factors bring us EURJPY strong move ahead that means DAX is rising too as the same correlation with the SPX500. So the correlations are all fitting.
Comment: Inflation target is delayed to the end of year of 2018 and could be later to 2019.
Comment: Watch out! DXY truncation 100.33. This could be the TOP of range even new low!
Comment: If 100.51 is being broken wait for retesting and long DXY for huge trend.
Comment: Harmonic patterns are going well, guys we're here. German 10 years bonds vs. US 10 years bonds is at historical low form 1989. New patterns are beginning.
Comment: Weekly here we are.
Comment: From technical analysis this is the best RR for long and speculation sentiments are at extreme. From correlations DXY is doing harm to all markets, inflation worse, commodity dropping, gold pullback, indexes will follow the gold. All others countries currencies are devaluating. Purchase power are losing but only USA. This situation is coursed by FRB inverse the inflation with DXY or saying DXY is the inflation now but not the real price. We have USA 1.6% inflation in Oct. if FRB rises rates then we will have 2.3% inflation in USA and other countries will have very low inflation. From our point of view, all countries central banks are misleading by FRB. If all countries inflation will go up then they shall rise rates against DXY. That's the only way.
Comment: Even if we are breaking down the 1.04 then we shall have a pullback now that means DXY retesting 100.51.
Comment: OVB is showing us an ABYSS! Be careful!
Comment: A truncation is confirmed today. When analyst is right traders can play it for a while.
Comment: From the OBV analysis, I found Trump's strategy is a trading block. Who ever has been benefits from the WTO rules for decades will renegotiate the trade deal and the most importantly is the currency rates. A new rule must be made for the good of USA people's interests. I can understand that the USA situation is a kind of emergency from classes conflicts, a "Great culture revolution" movement is happening in there. From Brexit to EU zone politics, an historical movement was beginning. This's new, and it could last 8- 10 years of human culture movement observation from 100 years cycle.
I don't think China is ready for this movement because those leaders are mostly stupid they're too cozy to find the influence of culture but China could be benefits from this too. Honestly speaking, China doesn't need trading very much, as an old self- supplied, big country, block doesn't matter but a good chance. also the Renminbi's purchase power will be strengthening from Trump's shadow.
I really suggest western investors should keep in mind that the biggest market and the most purchase power is from China but not USA. We're poor and developing USA is rich and developed. The problem is capitalism doesn't work in negative interests, it's unsustainable. Capitalism should be fully competitive too but not protective. The progress is always from demand but not supply. From my point of view, it's not capitalism already.
I believe the market is part of our civilization and from history charts data we can predict the culture movement and geopolitical events too. ( I predicted Brexit and Trump's win) Here I want to be clear, all my prediction and analysis is from the objective charts but NOT from your presumed superstitious and imaginations. It's like logical deduction or like elementary from a police case solving.
Most of traders and scalpers can't understand it but few analyst. It's beyond your cognition.
Please check on the Germany inflation rates and you'll find the EURO was hiked in Dec. 2016. It looks like central banks tend to add the interests rates into the inflation for balancing the purchase power as Fisher's equation showing us.
After so many evidences are showed and Trump's advisor team hinted at Davos. I'm wondering how many traders and scalpers are still waiting for the DXY 5th. wave. BTW, DXY is 34% EURO weighted, they have all time negative correlation as the mathematic equation result.
Comment: From VIX to USDJPY and DXY key levels fightings and the SSI was turned magnificently. Speculators are dreamers and are naives but hopelessly, they're always tend to be wrong.
Comment: It's not over, yet...
The classic EW wave theory has some problems, now we're in an era of EA and robots are trading in markets and we're evolving to 7. ( The most interesting thing is that we have most people trading like robots, scalpers. Lol)
Comment: I do NOT suggest shorting the stocks markets but buying the dip.
Comment: The SSI is turning significantly, EU -2.06, UJ +1.93, OZ -1.78, Etc. And the commodities market SSI is turning to be against the measuring currency, the USD. But the stocks markets are holding heavily net short, which is supporting my long. It looks like a flushing out in the market is coming soon, an impulse for speculators cutting their losses and then a pull back to lure them in again...
Comment: This is NOT a signal.
Pullback completed as expected, new cycle could have begun from here. Please don't short this, scalpers and speculators.
Comment: There's no obvious difference with rising wedge and ending diagonal, plus the pullback could has been done by 0.382 fib in 1.0650. Scalpers and speculators, they all could see this is a wedge or an ending something bla bla bla ... and the market should be against them.
Comment: A very nice long here, good RR. This is a signal, BTW.
Comment: OBV is showing a potential move, harmonic patterns are suggested.
Comment: From the year of 2015, EURUSD has been had weekly time lagging negative correlation with A shares for 26 months and now the later one is rising unstoppable with the higher inflation which central banks are underestimated. The pair is also fighting to the DXY weakness by mathematic correlation. Soon it'll be a decision time for the ECB whether goes with the inflation or risks the political conditions in 2017, the France election in March and the Germany council election in September. The populist culture movements from EU and all around the world is just in a beginning stage, the USA is now in the first stage of an isolationism in 8- 10 years like 1930's before the WWII, an 100 years cycle completion. I don't want to talk too much because most of people can't understand it. The market is a part of our civilization, I can see many futures in it and some of them was in our history.
“History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain
As I'm posting the Germany PPI is published ......
To be clear, just like last time I posted Germany interests rates and some people blamed Germany central bank.
It's NOT their problem.
Comment: The France CPI and PPI is going higher from today's publishing. So EU zone's two wheels, the inflations of France and Germany are both going higher. The Scotland vote could be the trigger of an final opportunity for buying the EURO from the bottom. This's NOT a signal but I would like to wait for 2 weeks in the March.
Comment: The weekly time window starts from 13th. March is very sensitive for the global market as I predicted it 2 months ago. After I checked the central banks calendar today I realized it's a storm week where full of the interests rates decisions. I'd like to wait for them.
Comment: This is NOT a signal but a joke from the Chinese TV show "Bao qing tian".
" How do you look at that, Yuan Fang?" - inspired by the channel idea from trading view community. Thanks for the new feature bottom "all".
Comment: The new button "all" ... I blame my iPad input program, again.
Comment: We now focus on Netherland election result on 15th. March, it could show a sign of the France election and a sign of the populist culture movement trending.
Some people like Chinese politicians are still saying the movement is "political wrong". Let me tell you something beyond your cognation: they're born "right". So they must be right. Seriously speaking, What is politic? It's a form of human social classes system by people's power. How many people are still thinking President Trump can win the power without worker classes and blue collar classes and the military classes supporting? And he's not your president? He is your President who was elected by the very successful system which has been lasting in 250 years, and you think it's not right?
Comment: For the new house rule. It's forcing me to look for the news and to read it carefully.
Comment: Waiting for NFP tomorrow more importantly FRB decision in the storm week and also I suggest waiting a little longer for the yearly China meeting is over. We shall wait and see Lol...
Comment: I usually use dailyfx to watch SSI sentiments but from yesterday the DATA is sabotaged. I can see it's wrong because every data is net long. Fortunately I can still watch other web sites for the real data. I'll show less information because of I suspect the chinese government is watching my analysis already.
Even if you can block the hongkong web site doesn't mean you can block all the information from out side, unless you block the internet. FXXK the GFW. - Victor.Y.F
Comment: to ECB officers:
It's not the low interests but the negative interests which is sabotaging the commodities markets prices's continuity is the most matter, history prices must be respected or the consequences could jump out to punish your ignorances. Canceling the negative and extending the QE is the right thing to do if the real inflation is for sure. DO NOT cheat me like others, the negative thing is a tightening but not easing, right? Surprising again? scalpers, traders ...and most of the overrated Chinese analysis.
Negative interests is a tightening. - Victor.Y.F
Comment: G20 is holding in Germany this weekend, at this very key time window where the storm is happening I suggest traders flat. Everything will be settled down next week and trading will carry on.
Comment: In 2017 the negative interests may rejoin the inflation at some point but I doubt ECB is already addicted it. Like the heroine drugs the negative thing is unhealthy and a illusion. I urge that ECB cancel it as soon as possible. The right thing to do is start QE but not tightenning and return the measuring currency back to US Dollar...
Comment: Source:
SNP predict:
1, ECB extending QE to 2018 ( In fact, it's 2019 because it means 2018 is covered).
2, ECB canceling negative interests to ZERO in 2017 ( Return measuring currency back to US dollar, yes it's the right thing to do)
3, ECB cutting purchasing 40 Billion/month after June of 2017 ( from 1000 B/month)
All fits my simulations before...
Comment: In my new simulations US Dollar could stop hikes at this summer in 2017.
Faire Le Pont Victor.Y.F
She just announced a France exit vote no early than the September if she wins.
Comment: To be clear, I hope EU zone keeping together. My attitude is: all of those problems we have now should blame ECB money policy, especially the negative interests from 2nd. Feb. 2015 the negative day.
After the negative day, we have many problems, Stock crash, Renminbi devaluation, Brexit, US election, now France election. ECB have responsibilities to control the inflation, it is time to return the measuring currency back to US Dollar. The EU zone geopolitics and culture movement situations are becoming hardly for control soon. The USA under Trump's administration is better.
Comment: We have ECB key decision at 27th. April 2017, same day as BOJ, my new simulations suggest expanding QE and keeping interests at zero point ( negative before). The market could surprise you guys, be careful, the France election.
Comment: It's the BOJ move but not from ECB FYI. I consider ECB is addicted to the drugs already.
Also something interesting here. Source:
Check out number 3. " Dimon also brought up his concerns with Brexit and the European Union. The JPMorgan CEO said that he hoped Brexit would bring the EU closer together but admitted that it could "result in political unrest that would force the EU to split apart."
Do you now feel better?
Comment: Yesterday our Japanese analyst and I have an interesting talk about why US-China have to hold the second round meeting in Washington. We drew all lines together and found those treads point to only one conclusion ...
This's very sensitive now what I can tell you guys is the risk on is coming back and forex market shall move.
Comment: Source:
Now we focus on France election. The first round result could be the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) and the "Macron cake" (Macron). Then we go to the second round.
ECB officer, ECB may have to supply ELA to French Banks after the first round result. That means there's an impulse and a supply after that. For me the first round vote is very likely ends with Le Pen. The key is the second round vote.
I personally favorite the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) wins the Presidency. My anti-terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
Comment: This might be annoying but truth is boring, right?
French people are idealism. They imported too many potential terrorists. They've lost their main stream culture from population unbalancing. This is changing now.
Je suis Charlie. Victor.Y.F
Comment: Source:
Mais, I'est perdu.
But he's lost. Lol.....
Comment: Le Pen and Macron go to the second round, as predicted ( easily for me)
Weekly gap up, an impulse and a supply to 1.0840 fill the gap and retest the neck line too. We could go long again from there.
In the second round if any accident happens from terrorists attacking then Le Pen's winning odd will increase aggressively. Her winning will bring us the France exit vote no soon than the Sept. 2017. Le Pen (believe it or not she's not a right wing) and Macron (in the middle for sure) no matter who wins the presidency will give us the middle route for the EU zone. From forex market risk view, the France election risk is passed already. Look at XAU and Yen they're going weak, right?
Comment: Guys... Please do NOT short this now ok? The 1.0830 is the horizon where the neck line standing. Head is at 1.03 target 1.13 ok? Then short from there the gap will be filled.
Comment: Some things I want to point out :
There's no need to fill this gap from EURO tightening. We could test 1.10 middle figure from 1.13 dropping and target 1.17- 1.20 with Le Pen wins.
There's no difference between rising wedge and falling wedge in this condition.
This gap could be an typical moving of the major wave 3rd. of the 3rd. from EW wave count.
Do not long DXY and short this now, ok?
Comment: Oops ... told ya...
Comment: This is why we trade 10 months SMA could be very dangerous now... I'll zoom it for details.
Comment: Details on the chart... I'll post a weekly OBV after
Comment: After previewing TAX cut we know the trading conditions will be better.
Comment: From the 2nd. Feb. 2015 (negative day or mirror day) we have weekly range trading for 26 months now. Looks like it'll go harmonic ways for more time in the future. If we have better conditions then the upper range from 1.15 to 1.24 will open to us, maybe next year.
Comment: If you guys followed this publish then you should have understand the update from the Jan. 2015 is very clearly pointed out the future. You should have took some good profits from this analysis.
The western civilization is always an art of the control more than the "ART" itself if we could say Chinese art is an original rough art. I mean, the market as a creation of western civilization is always very well controlled no matter you believe it or not. Many people think the market is free but is it the truth?
Comment: Be careful with CHF now, if we have an EURO rising then SNB should weak it before the ECB. After the huge weakness we have the strenthenning with EURO together. Same sequence like the Jan. 2015 but reversal.
I always suggest avoiding trades of CHF. The SNB lost trader's trusts from 2015.
Comment: This's an alert!
I suggest traders be prepared for this condition where NO circulation will be provided for banks and for brokers to execute trader's stop losses.
Consider an potential EURO huge impulse to 1.20 will drag down DXY and will drag down gold from SNB's weakening CHF possibility is becoming higher. The second black swan could happen but inverted the Jan. 2015 sequence.
EURO impulse up in this simulation.
Comment: Source:
Le pen: "Expecting French people use Franc in a year. Every country should have used their own currency. It's easier to use own currency than import EURO."
My point is:
Two wheels of EU zone have some seriously problems now. If any terrorist attacking happens Le Pen's winning odds will be massively increase which could be quickly manipulated and be easily mislead.
Brexit, again as I predicted, is an hundred year cycle historical culture turning from globalizing, as long as China didn't realize it China is making huge mistakes now from Renminbi's devaluation serving the one belt one road and dreaming of globalization development.
Comment: They don't know that they don't know, I call it double ignorance. - Victor.Y.F
For example, when Spanish conquistador's battle ships reached the beach Indians even didn't see them in 1000 meters. Because Indians have never recognized them before.
Comment: To be clear. I don't blame UK but blame negative interests and PBOC's mistake. In fact Brexit happened at the June 2016 where is cause by the Feb. 2015 EURO negative day and caused by the Aug. 2015 Renminbi's devaluation announced.
Those unnatural facts and wrongly manipulated money policies extremely tested human culture limits and our civilizations edges. Now let it be, we will see who and which could survive it.
Comment: Source:
Now we focus on the key election in France. If "le petit pont" wins EURO will gap up and if "the Macron cake" wins EURO will fill the previous gap and still going up. I prefer Le Pen myself but looks like she's losing after the public debate if there's no accident from here to the final result.
Now feel free to enjoy some music. (It's hard to find the link because of GFW)
The source track is on youtube too looks like it's ok to play it. "Surrender" - Guardians of the Galaxy: Awesome Mix, Vol. 2 (Original Motion Picture Soundtrack)
Comment: I just checked my Facebook and knew my french teacher voted for Macron. His joke is that Le Pen runs in 2022 ("comme d'habitude") but think about her age ...
Comment: Macron won as I predicted of course after followed with the changing situation. EURUSD opened flat and went higher, with weighted EUR +0.14%, with weighted YEN -0.07%. We'll see more markets next to Asia and EU zone London and New York also will see commodities.
Looks like EURO will go higher with DAX and SPX500 and the correlation is changing from negative to positive after this key election.
Let's see how stupid is Renminbi, it will go down with DXY or not.
Comment: If we have the previous gap filled from ECB supply forex market then it may still go up with the first wave at 1.05 low is unbreakable.
Comment: Ok this's simple, looking for the ECB feast forex market a gap filling festival. The EURUSD is very famous at it's 50% level. Short from exhausting top and make your stop loss as the same as your target, multiple entries could maximize your account management performance and could minimize your risks.
Comment: Now traders could move stop loss to break even and take partial profits from multi entries for maximizing account performance.
Comment: The BOJ take Frace election result is a triumph of the globalization. "Reached a turning point from globalization" I quot that. But I always look it from different point of view. I support Brexit for preserving English culture main stream from terrorism culture invasion. I take the Frace election result is just a pullback of the global isolation movement.
Just like the China did the A shares in a wrong way. We should have done it by the right way. The China leaders are cowards.
I like the globalization but now it's time to think about its problems. First of all, we should have kept our own culture before we find the narrow path, where is between preserving and not rolling back our civilizations.
Comment: Corrections: France
Blame the iPad input program.
Comment: Source:
Now USDCHN is pegging for 1 more year. Consider the USA future growth, Euro dollar could fall into an abyss but no worries, the EURUSD ratio doesn't matter in G8 mathematic model, right? Traders should have known it already. All that most matters is the inflation and the DAX, SPX500.
Comment: Not high enough? Now the crows are coming.

Comment: This is not a signal...
correction: Now the crowds are coming.
Comment: Now traders can move stop loss to break even. The ECB is still supporting the stock markets from falling, the problem is how to protect the core inflation from failure.
Comment: The market can go higher before the ECB meeting in June. Those short term short orders should have been stoped out from break even. This Euro moving is dragging down DXY from mathematic negative correlation. The FRB is using the DXY as the USA inflation statistics, it'll be very very interesting to see how the next CPI data will be artificially broadcasted from USA. If the USA inflation is failure then the DXY and DAX and SPX500 will fail with it from positive correlations before. I'm unsure that the ECB and the FRB will do with the market failure. Most likely the monster will be released which is called risk lost control. But now we are more focusing on the core inflations. The stock markets are secondly important and also the EURUSD ratio doesn't matter in condition USDCNY is pegging and sharing the same inflations. The forex market wave could be huge. The V shape wave or the S shape wave are all possible.
Comment: The weighted Japanese YEN intervention odd is increasing to 50% in June after an terrorism attack happened in Manchester yesterday. We don't trade those incidents because of moral rules, in fact, the investment set long before those things happen where based on technical chart combined with fundamental statistics.
Comment: Now we pray for U.K and be ready for against terrorism like always. My anti terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
Comment: The ECB money policy hasn't changed yet, but we've received some news from minister Draghi today:
"Some side-effect has demolished" ( he hinted the A shares market, from 2015 the Euro weakness has weekly negative correlation with the Shares, or saying the Euro weakness has supported the A shares). We now look for the A shares up side moving because of the supply is limited. This will lead to Euro rising.
"With a recovering an more healthy interests will come back" this's the first time We've seen minister Draghi saying the Euro interests will go higher, very bullish.
The M3 money supply in the April is 4.9% less than 5.3 previously supply, this explained the gap on 17th. April.
The EURUSD speculators net short positions is at 2.1 short Vs. 1 long from the FXCM SSI, this's telling us the Euro rising isn't over yet.
Now we're focusing on the U.K reelection and the ECB meeting in June, also the Wednesday close of the A shares market, the key monthly close.
Comment: Every US dollar hike cycle is an highly risky cycle to the markets also to the geopolitical situations (the wars) and to the culture movements (Brexit,isolationism) to the political movements (Trump,May,Macron).
After China market is stabled, here comes the problem of the DXY representing short term inflation, or saying the oil and the food inflation. It's an very thin edge the ECB and the FRB is walking on. Those policies cards should be playing in a very specific sequence. Only if the Euro dollar negative interests is canceling could lead to the Euro dollar representing inflation, AKA the core one. If they play those cards in a wrong sequence, be careful traders, there could be an huge shock to the market because of the unnatural policies causing culture movements and political accidents, from the USA and form EU zone, the U.K too.
Comment: Rising again, told ya.
Target 1.1350 to short as a short term signal.
Comment: It's time to have some beer when I'm watching the "House of Cards" season 5. The monthly close is very comfortably moving higher to the 1.1350 as the 1.0350-1.0850 head shoulders PO 1X target, 1000 pips along the way.
Comment: The market sentiments showing us now there're 81% speculators holding shorts Vs. 19% speculators holding longs. This's a typical trending situation and the market is always against more speculators. This pair could still going higher before the ECB's meeting.
Comment: Target is moving higher to the multiple inflations zone 1.1385-1.1420 from the EW wave theory wave 1-3-4-5 related and head shoulders PO 1X also 0.786 ratio and equal wave WXY 7 swings. Please do NOT short this before the ECB meeting, traders...
Comment: OMG... hope you guys are at the right side of the market.
Comment: The FXCM SSI showing us 75% short volume Vs. 25% long volume, 60% short positions Vs. 40% long positions. The ECB removed words of Euro interests going lower and scalpers were piling into short this again. This is saying more upside.
I wouldn't be surprising if this pair go to head shoulders 1X PO target soon.
Comment: There's a news about 20 economists suggest the FRB lifting the inflation target to 4% in the future. Here comes the show time of the measuring currency. If the measuring currency is Euro dollar then for the 4% inflation target it'll fall hard. If the measuring currency is US dollar then Dollar will fall hard instead of the Euro.
From 2015 the FRB is using DXY as the USA inflation statistics, we should keep watching the CPI and the IR very carefully to find more clues. In a condition where the Euro is at negative interests and the EBC addicted to manipulate the market, there're more possibilities they will devaluate Euro again. ( maybe in 2018)
Let's see.
Comment: From the EW wave theory EURUSD daily chart lacks of the last swing from an impulse wave count. Technically this wave should be counted by 5-9-13-17... as an impulse wave from a small time frame to a bigger time frame.
We may have 1100 pips run to 1.14 and a pull back then to 1.21 then 1.23 before Christmas 2017, the whole year of Euro running to 2018, totally 1100-1100-1100 pips waves of WXYXZ or 12345 on weekly chart.
Comment: The ECB officers may have realized that the big stagflation cycle 2011-2016 caused classes conflicts in the society, poverties are among those who's life depends on the inflation directions, blue collars, workers, farmers, militaries too. Think about the Detroit city... how many American families dream's failed there?
Divergences are everywhere in our real lives and the commodities market, the capitalism has a problem now. It's time to say Carl Max's book has some thing right about it. He's German, right?
I'm clearly criticizing central banks careless about the inflation direction. The stocks markets and the inflation direction should have been supported from money policy by a smaller cycle. A 6 years cycle is too big.
"It's my turn" - from the netflix TV show "House of Cards" Season 5.
Comment: The swing is coming target 1.1385-1.1420.
Comment: The market sentiments showing us now there're 75% speculators holding shorts Vs. 25% speculators holding longs. It's a little early to decide the reversal. This pair could still going higher. A typical trending.
Comment: On any small time frame chart seeing pullback by 0.236, 0.386, it's a chance to get a ticket on the bullet train to the north. This's an EW wave 5 wave impulse, guys, a lot of extensions.
Comment: Based on 4h chart as long as the first impulse wave low 1.1131 is holding, the second wave has been completed by 90% pull back like typical EW wave 2 deep dropping, we're expecting going higher to 1.1380-1.1420 profits taking area. If it breaks 1.1131 then 1.0980 is the next support.
The speculators sentiment is over -2 on EURUSD which is showing more rising, typical trending market. Scalpers are shorting this pair like crazy but blind on EU zone's growth and US data weakness.
Comment: Looks like trend resumed after RBNZ...
Comment: OMG...
Comment: Now scalpers are crying for their stop losses where we're at an profits taking area mentioned many times before. The DXY is lower to 95.17 from another platform's data which is showing a lower than the 7th. Nov. 2016 low. Technically, we've destroyed the US dollar's trend and back to ranges again.
This profits taking area is just a sub wave top of the major wave's the 3rd. of the 3rd. wave from small time frame, it may go higher after some major wave's the 4th.wave consolidations. Because of the independence day, we usually have US dollar strengthening in July.
Comment: Halt on already, at 1.14194 from IDC's data.
Recently the IDC data and the FXCM data are lagging from banks. I'v found the DXY lowest low today is at 95.45 where is lower than TV by 0.3.
From 1.03-1.14 is about 1100 pips as predicted. We may pullback some fibs. for a new target around 1.2.
Comment: Still extending higher... this's not a trading signal
The 5 wave impulse is very hard to stop like a bullet train. I don't want to call a top for stopping this train as an comic hero Lol... but from weekly ATR measuring, this swing may limited by 300 pips a fully candle weekly bar where closes at 1.1461. Next week may be forming a top maybe not. You guys can see the DXY target 91 with an impulse was predicted.
Comment: Be careful guys, the inflation is failing now like a small crisis. For stopping this crisis, the ECB policy may change violently, I have two simulations,
1, the ECB cancels negative immediately and starts to purchase. (the negative thing is a tightening, I told you guys before) 1.20-1.24 should be reached then a big pullback from purchasing.
2, the US dollar devaluation for pegging with the falling inflation to keep it at high level.
These two simulations could work together too. The worse one may be the weighted Yen, for keeping the indexes from cashing, the BOJ may devaluate the Yen to it's lowest level where is lower than 2014's low, crazy...
Comment: This's not a signal. There's a supply on 1.14060 1min halted on.
Comment: 1.14246 85.4% second wave
Comment: In 1 hour chart the high 1.14456 previously top is taken but no panic here, let's look at the DXY 1 hour chart as a mathematic negative correlation. Now we're waiting for CAD hike and Yellen testimony.
Comment: Finally the EURUSD is reaching the pitchfork technic line with a trend line drawing from 27th. Oct 2015, the DXY is dropping to 95.69 as 0.786 fibs. It's very dangerous to call it, using the DXY previous low 95 as the EURUSD SL maybe ok. This means if US dollar fails 95 I will cut EU SL. Now all crosses pairs have halted on already.
Comment: There's no US-EU trade support this 1100 pips moving from an OBV observation, or saying this's an ECB manipulating by the Euro interests canceling from -1.0% to -0.5%. Weekly extreme has been shown up.

Not only in weekly chart but also in daily chart we can see some patterns here.
Comment: EU is bullish still, keep alert.
Monthly RSI has a potential to the up side, the first leg measuring form 1.04 to 1.17, now the breaking leg may have found an E point to the target by a triangle burst.
Comment: After the June's worse US CPI data the DXY made a lower low, the Euro had formed an E point...
Comment: Nothing to say...
Comment: Since the 2nd. Feb. 2015, the first time EU weekly has been closed at the 1.14653(FXCM), 1.14540(TVC), 1.14688(OANDA), 1.14652(, all above the 2015 highest close and above the 2016 highest close price.
Comment: Technically we have closed above 2 years yearly high and there's no any sign of the ECB's operators taking profits at 1.16 level. This may quickly run to 1.19 after this week's ECB meeting, .
Comment: There're some ugly candles in 1H chart for profits taking but it's still in a major wave 3 channel. It's normal that the ECB meeting is ahead.
Comment: OMG... guess now scalpers are seriously looking at it or maybe not, speculators always tend to catch falling knives during the trend.
A bullet train.
Comment: According to "dailyfx" researching, almost every broker's speculators sentiments are showing net short this pair like crazy and they're holding their short positions like forever. I would like to see a slaughter in the market soon...
Comment: The first stop is near, we need an extreme situation for scalpers cutting their positions.
Comment: It's very hard to work on chart these days, the temperature is over 40 centigrade degrees in my city. I would like to update monthly chart after the July close... hopefully it maybe cooler...
Comment: The 1.1740 handle is the Renminbi's devaluation level during 2015 China market crashing and here we are again. It's very interesting to watch the EU, Yuan, and the China stock market. From weighted SDR basket measuring the Yuan has been aggressively devaluated for 44 months.
There will be a moment for testing the Yuan's health level by the EU soon.
Comment: Broken 1.1740 with China market and Yuan are going well, for now, we're still waiting for monthly close but looks like everything is moving smooth. As long as it's going well, the bullet train has no stop here.
Comment: We may have arrived the first station. Then what?
There're two ways of waiting for the 10 months SMA catching up. The first one, pull back quickly. The second one, flat several months and the SMA rises by it self. After the catching up, our train should leave the station to the north again, maybe in 2018.
Comment: The market speculators sentiments are changing to long it slowly... the ECB is a little worry about it now. We may have a weekly chart pull back soon...
Comment: Based on another website data, this weekly high 1.2070 could be an monthly high and the DXY weekly low 91.498 is still lack of our target around 91 where is lower than last low 91.919. We need an extreme sentiment to take profits and to pull back for the long term SMA or we need a flat to wait for the dance of China stock market A shares performance is over.
I would like to see a flat or saying a range. By an observation of weekly ATR we would like to find the range trading for many months till the next move.
Comment: We're waiting for the ECB but the flat will be the best way. Waiting for SMA catching up.
Comment: Now a pull back is coming. The profits taking and the bears are working together. We have reached our DXY expanded FLAT target at 91.01 too. The US TAX cut where is on 25th. Sep. will be our time window.
Comment: As long as the channel is holding the target is beyond your expectation (1.29 or higher). The ECB is a little "en retard" that is why Euro moving so fast. From cycle perspective they have to give the power of market control to the FRB on Oct. Where is a 2008-2011-2014-2017 "after crisis" period, a 3 central banks control in turn, a 9 years cycle completion.
Comment: A straight 9 months rally needs a weekly rest now. The market should back test "Trump line" soon.
Today Grandma Yellen promises us that on Oct. they shall begin to cut sheet, or saying they will take market control from the ECB but the Euro is still lagging. It looks like the ECB don't want to let it go. (addicted to the power?)
The long term perspective is showing us that a 3 years "QT" = Quantity Tightening cycle, which is a counter cycle from "QE" will begin.
Comment: The EW wave channel of major wave 3 is still holding in daily chart, no panic here.
Comment: The German election is showing us that the 3rd. big party is a right wing. A very hard processing will be there for Merkel. The human culture movements are usually lasting 10 years, this's just a beginning from a long term view of an inflation perspective. If the globalization reversing is only last 4 years from President Trump's helping, I would like to thank him very much.
Comment: Now the sentiments are turning into net long holding . We may retest 10 months SMA or consolidate for waiting for it's rising, by itself.
Comment: All long closed, wait for the back testing 10 months SMA and being interesting again.
Comment: We've invalidated 1.17 now it's 1.1616( last high on May 2016) and 1.1300( Trump high on Nov. 2016), 10 months SMA is at 1.1288 after September close. A risk off mode is suggested here, Yen, XAU, DXY rises too. I predict an black swan event in Japan on 10th. Oct. 2017, Japan Prime Mister Anbei may fail the election, weighted Yen rises quickly will do harm to the stocks.
Source: (Kevin Warsh may take the power from Grandma Yellen)
Comment: New calculation of an inflation reset to zero point supports a pull back to 1.1300 area where is also the 10 months SMA is at after the September monthly close. The DXY should be limited by the Trump day on Nov. 2016.
An new view is suggesting that the interests will lead a way, interests, inflation, stocks, one by one.
If Kevin takes the power. I predict he will hike bigger and hike more for the inflation target until the stock markets failure, then the squeezing...
Comment: Weekly channel is still working at the edge of the 4th. wave, we may extend higher after 10 months SMA is catching up. The DXY longer term is at very low level. Watch for the second gap of the 18th. Aug. 2014. We've closed the gap of Christmas of 2014.
Comment: Daily implied volatility: 1.1770-1.1712. Weekly implied volatility: 1.1938-1.1880. We should stay between the IV range during 68% of the time frame.
Comment: Now speculators sentiments are tripled net short holding, 75% shorts Vs. 25% longs. The SSI is suggesting that there will be a slaughter in the market soon. We’re looking at Japan election (on 22nd. Oct. 2017) very carefully. UJ sentiment is turning slowly.
Comment: There're rumors that ECB QE is being limited by 2.5 trillion, we have 2.28 trillion till the end of 2017. If we calculate it by 60 billion each month purchasing then we can easily have the point where Euro ends its QE. It maybe extended in 2018 with less purchasing per month which is forming a smooth quitting until the summer of the 2018.
Comment: The core inflation chart is supporting an huge hike from the FRB in the Dec. 2017.
Comment: Draghi: “ECB predicts the inflation will be a V shape.”
This is an open ending decision, the Euro Zone many country members want soft. The ECB leaves the FRB has less choice but to move it by themselves. Tailor or Powell, now more likely will be Tailor.
Comment: The 10 months SMA is at 1.1278 without this monthly close. The Spanish may push it more down, it's a bad time for an independence movement. The interests is always followed by risks events, which should be ended with higher, and then more risks. A positive cycle should have begun already, the "V" shape.
Comment: Spanish slide... ( We don't trade this, FYI) If Madrid shows weak and wants a talk, then slides more. Image EU zone, how many countries have nationalities problems like this, is there some thing called Spain Constitution? Soft... too soft... the old way may be better.
This's slowing down global recovery, means a pull back it is.
Comment: Traders should pay more attention to the V shape but not the EURUSD or the DXY, it doesn't matter if the cores go higher with the hikes. The new forex model is showing that the Oz. and the miners may decide the future.
1, the Euro will follow the Oz.
2, the Oz. will catch up the US dollar.
3, where the weighted Yen has been to, the Oz. is following it.
4, the interests is leading a way.
5, surprisingly, stocks are going higher too.
Comment: Time based cycle and price range are both truncated on Sept. 2017, Euro may have a new leg from the five wave moving for completing 100% time and for trying to reach 100% range by an open ending QE. The DXY is doing well, by 61.8% time and 100% range. They may rejoin at 100% time, the EURUSD tends to rise but the DXY tends to range from 91 to 96 awaiting for the Euro. They're pegging in a range after the rejoining. The inflation should shape V.
Comment: Last year after Trump's winning when I was enjoying my new year coffee in a Starbucks nearby, I heard two Chinese were talking loudly in public that they bought a small house in Netherland. Especially, they were thinking about the Euro is dead.
I thought "OMG, this is a speculation sentiments extreme situation... and also the culture movement should've begun already"
So I left them as soon as possible.
Comment: Source: ( Merkel may join the populist party?)
Comment: We are warning investors that the GER30 may pull back 4000 points after some higher by the German election problems. It looks like a rig of the election by CIA and the MI6 and the Germany parties are using it to be against Merkel. From stocks squeezing consideration EU should rise by the fall of the market.
Will the angel be falling? Let’s see...
You may take some advantage of the negative thing but it’s not human natural. When the truth is coming how will central banks do with it? In such twisted market? The commodities markets are sabotaging by it? The capitals are swollen from the black hole of the negative axis of the price?
It’s purely experimental... and they’ve used it.
Comment: Traders in EU zone should pay more attention to the future inflation but with the negative interests of lasting to Oct. 2018, it’s limited by buying price to lower...
Stock market, Euro dollar, both down after some squeezing higher, only the inflation has some future but limited after a little crashing, this may take 1-2 years in EUROPE... 1 year is the best way with huge collapse, 2 years are worse scenarios than 1 year. The investors condition may be getting worse in Euro dollar during the pullout back. It’s now like China, if Renminbi is still a coward to hike.
Comment: This publishing ends here, new chart will be revealed soon.
Stay tuned...
Comment: The DAX fall has begun already. Capital will be squeezing into Euro higher and the US dollar rising makes it lower.
It's ranging some where... could be in 2 years.
Comment: DAX lower to target 10800, EURUSD slowly lower too. We may see DXY and core inflation rise together shortly ( maybe in 1 month).
Comment: Now the DAX and the EURUSD and the Euro bunds, they're facing some problems, with US Tax reform and FRB purchasing again...
Soon the "single market" where is between USA and EU zone will be divided. We're warning traders DAX falling and EURUSD lower, also the interest is very low. The EU zone inflation is a failure now. It's a very cold Christmas this year in Europe, saying the market condition is getting worse without courage, just like China shit market.
Comment: We're showing you guys many indicators on long term chart, where has shown an huge 1.20 rejection from EURUSD ( Euro cross pairs too). Please be careful now, the Tax Cut could be signed by Tump at any time during this week end. From ATR is lower consideration, where the ECB want the stocks rising forever but ignoring the inflation falling, EURUSD cloud've been topped here in several months. We will publish a new chart during Christmas, soon...
Comment: This is NOT a trading signal! Which one is more natural in your opinion?
Comment: An hook on 1.1880, stocks have a 99% to be down but central banks don't want to take the blames. By any small action could trigger the fall in the market soon. Also could be the BOJ's weakening Japanese Yen again in 2 days.
Comment: This is NOT a signal!
We're gonna close EURUSD around 1.1500 at the end of year 2017.
Comment: Please do NOT long it here! A truncation could happen at any time!
Comment: The implied volatility is supporting a merry Christmas. But after that... we will publish a new article soon, stay tuned...
Comment: Eu zone's future is done from here.
Comment: Source: FXstreet
ECB’s Vasiliauskas: Now it's a good time to start QE end debate
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Key Points:
Discussion about QE end will continue in 2018.
Now it's a good time to start QE end debate.
more added "The target has been done"
---------------------------------------------- a separate line here
Very funny, after my predictions? A little be late...
With core inflation is at the edge of abysmal fall and stocks overdraw EU zone's 6 years future, they're lying on your face that a success is done? Seriously?
Comment: Our order is on the working, move SL to BE now. If the stop hunters eat it during Christmas then we'll do it again from higher.
Comment: Merry Christmas and happy new year!
We would like to keep this publishing for a little longer before we close it.
Comment: A reality QE shall begin in EU zone. Respect the history.
Comment: An harmonic double top is forming on EURUSD. We're going to short this above 1.20000 next week, maybe after the payroll.
We're warning traders that it's too dangerous to long it now, we've predicted DXY chart already but we don't know how high the China market could go, technically a 50%-61.8% retrace is the EURUSD's favorite.
Comment: To be clear, we've never traded news and have used incidents or accidents or disasters to build a trade. We don't trade payroll too.
Technically, comparing with an impulse wave prediction, an healthy pull back usually has more possibly. Please remember that nothing rises forever, market don't move straight.
EU zone investor should've paid more attentions to inflation "V" shape, as ECB have warned us before.
"Market is a ( range of) mountains " Victor.Y.Y
Comment: It has stalled from 1.2081 where no higher than 1.2092 but enough to form a double top, like it has been predicted before.
Comment: To be clear, we are NOT trading signals!
The chart way is NOT our trading way!
Scalpers should stick with your own way!
We suggest you to trade small TF harmonic patterns with the trend. We also suggest you to trade hourly EMA after the mid term trend is identified on daily or weekly chart, after contact your analyst.
Comment: The first try on 1.0260 has been stopped out by BE. We’re looking for a new one.
Comment: The SSI is showing 4/1 net short holding on EU from FXCM. Other broker is showing 5/1 on EU. We could go higher to 1.21046 to form an hook for trapping 1-2-3 break out trading scalpers like the first week of 2017 in DXY. After this NFP we could have a better position soon.
Comment: The 1-2-3 break out trading is a typical 1Hr- 4Hrs intraday scalping technic. It doesn't fit this 55 months SMA rejection.
Comment: We’re in the trade. Never pretend to be a successful trader and never lie to TV community. We’ve made many mistakes on short term analysis, this’s proving that we’re human.
Comment: Be careful with Swiss Franc here!
Comment: Broken 1.20000 is forming a neck line. Our trade after the payroll has been protected at BE.
We're closing this publishing soon, a new one will be released.
Stay tuned......
Comment: The first short has been taken profits yesterday, now we have a nice trap to re-short it or add it in daily chart.
New long term chart is at working, please wait for a while before its publishing.......
Comment: Our second short is protected at BE.
To be clear, We don't work for the China government and China bank but independent analysts. We don't trade news too.
Comment: Second short has been ST out. We'll try again from higher. We suggest traders to use good manage for taking partial profit in case ST out is triggered.
Comment: We're in the Gartley pattern PRZ against the trend on 1Hr chart.
Comment: Dropped 40 pips in 15 min, after US data, should have more lowers.
Comment: Source: Fx Street ( Be careful with this higher, it maybe over extended)
We've been ST out again, a new high (1.2218) above 1.2092. Now we're looking for the core inflation "V" shape as ECB has mentioned before but with some doubts.
There're still some questions about this higher.
1, If the core inflation is breaking out we should have AUDUSD ( miners) breaking the Sept. 2017 high too, but the problem is that it's not breaking, yet.
2, The XAUUSD isn't breaking Sept. 2017 high too. It's looks like full correlated without lagging.
3, The ATR in AUDUSD is lower than EURUSD, if US dollar dropping lower, the EU zone core inflation will be still weak. We need more volatile in the Oz. and commodities market to confirm it.
Comment: Let's see if this trend is going to happen along with 10 months SMA.
We use SMA on long term human chart. We use EMA on short term machine chart.
Comment: Case closure.
We should've closed this earlier. We're gonna publish new chart soon.
Based on 4h chart as long as the first impulse wave low 1.1131 is holding, the second wave has been completed by 90% pull back like typical EW wave wave 2 deep dropping, we're expecting going higher to 1.1380-1.1420 profits taking area. If it breaks 1.1131 then 1.0980 is the next support.
The speculators sentiment is over -2 on EURUSD which is showing more rising, typical trending market. Scalpers are shorting this pair like crazy but blind on EU zone's growth and US data weakness.
Thank you for your likes!
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