Victor.Y.F

"Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value."

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
254 1 11
On chart.
Comment: Pattern tradings are working well.
Trading harmonic patterns is simple. If the trend line is crossed then wait for the pullback and follow the C leg to complete targets fibs. Euro is just crossed. Finding more patterns from smaller time frame are good ideas too. They are fractals so smaller fractals should be everywhere.
Comment: We can not rule out the impulse before Dec. ECB but this month DXY has done.
Comment: Sorry for the late...
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Comment: Things are becoming a little clear now.
If we have SPX500 and XAUUSD both rising that means the Dollar's compensation is incoming. That's the over heat phase. We could have pegged USDCNY at 6.8 platform for 2 years from 2017-2019 like 2008-2010. When USDCNY is stabled then the EURUSD will catch up weighted JPY at 1.2434 (more high could be at 1.32 )and USDJPY will be ranging and falling a bit for waiting the intervention of BOJ 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games for all good. ( USDJPY is still a bit falling because Dollar is falling harder than the weighted JPY, weighted JPY is falling too but less hard). All those factors bring us EURJPY strong move ahead that means DAX is rising too as the same correlation with the SPX500. So the correlations are all fitting.
Comment: Inflation target is delayed to the end of year of 2018 and could be later to 2019.
The final dropping should be pressed by DXY
Comment: Watch out! DXY truncation 100.33. This could be the TOP of range even new low!
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Comment: If 100.51 is being broken wait for retesting and long DXY for huge trend.
Comment: Harmonic patterns are going well, guys we're here. German 10 years bonds vs. US 10 years bonds is at historical low form 1989. New patterns are beginning.
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Comment: Weekly here we are.
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Comment: From technical analysis this is the best RR for long and speculation sentiments are at extreme. From correlations DXY is doing harm to all markets, inflation worse, commodity dropping, gold pullback, indexes will follow the gold. All others countries currencies are devaluating. Purchase power are losing but only USA. This situation is coursed by FRB inverse the inflation with DXY or saying DXY is the inflation now but not the real price. We have USA 1.6% inflation in Oct. if FRB rises rates then we will have 2.3% inflation in USA and other countries will have very low inflation. From our point of view, all countries central banks are misleading by FRB. If all countries inflation will go up then they shall rise rates against DXY. That's the only way.
Comment: Even if we are breaking down the 1.04 then we shall have a pullback now that means DXY retesting 100.51.
Comment: OVB is showing us an ABYSS! Be careful!
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Comment: A truncation is confirmed today. When analyst is right traders can play it for a while.
Comment:
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Comment: From the OBV analysis, I found Trump's strategy is a trading block. Who ever has been benefits from the WTO rules for decades will renegotiate the trade deal and the most importantly is the currency rates. A new rule must be made for the good of USA people's interests. I can understand that the USA situation is a kind of emergency from classes conflicts, a "Great culture revolution" movement is happening in there. From Brexit to EU zone politics, an historical movement was beginning. This's new, and it could last 8- 10 years of human culture movement observation from 100 years cycle.
I don't think China is ready for this movement because those leaders are mostly stupid they're too cozy to find the influence of culture but China could be benefits from this too. Honestly speaking, China doesn't need trading very much, as an old self- supplied, big country, block doesn't matter but a good chance. also the Renminbi's purchase power will be strengthening from Trump's shadow.
I really suggest western investors should keep in mind that the biggest market and the most purchase power is from China but not USA. We're poor and developing USA is rich and developed. The problem is capitalism doesn't work in negative interests, it's unsustainable. Capitalism should be fully competitive too but not protective. The progress is always from demand but not supply. From my point of view, it's not capitalism already.
I believe the market is part of our civilization and from history charts data we can predict the culture movement and geopolitical events too. ( I predicted Brexit and Trump's win) Here I want to be clear, all my prediction and analysis is from the objective charts but NOT from your presumed superstitious and imaginations. It's like logical deduction or like elementary from a police case solving.
Most of traders and scalpers can't understand it but few analyst. It's beyond your cognition.
Comment: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-cpi
Please check on the Germany inflation rates and you'll find the EURO was hiked in Dec. 2016. It looks like central banks tend to add the interests rates into the inflation for balancing the purchase power as Fisher's equation showing us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_equation
After so many evidences are showed and Trump's advisor team hinted at Davos. I'm wondering how many traders and scalpers are still waiting for the DXY 5th. wave. BTW, DXY is 34% EURO weighted, they have all time negative correlation as the mathematic equation result.
Comment: From VIX to USDJPY and DXY key levels fightings and the SSI was turned magnificently. Speculators are dreamers and are naives but hopelessly, they're always tend to be wrong.
Comment: It's not over, yet...
The classic EW wave theory has some problems, now we're in an era of EA and robots are trading in markets and we're evolving to 7. ( The most interesting thing is that we have most people trading like robots, scalpers. Lol)
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Comment: I do NOT suggest shorting the stocks markets but buying the dip.
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Comment: The SSI is turning significantly, EU -2.06, UJ +1.93, OZ -1.78, Etc. And the commodities market SSI is turning to be against the measuring currency, the USD. But the stocks markets are holding heavily net short, which is supporting my long. It looks like a flushing out in the market is coming soon, an impulse for speculators cutting their losses and then a pull back to lure them in again...
Comment: This is NOT a signal.
Pullback completed as expected, new cycle could have begun from here. Please don't short this, scalpers and speculators.
Comment: There's no obvious difference with rising wedge and ending diagonal, plus the pullback could has been done by 0.382 fib in 1.0650. Scalpers and speculators, they all could see this is a wedge or an ending something bla bla bla ... and the market should be against them.
Comment: A very nice long here, good RR. This is a signal, BTW.
Comment: OBV is showing a potential move, harmonic patterns are suggested.
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Comment: From the year of 2015, EURUSD has been had weekly time lagging negative correlation with A shares for 26 months and now the later one is rising unstoppable with the higher inflation which central banks are underestimated. The pair is also fighting to the DXY weakness by mathematic correlation. Soon it'll be a decision time for the ECB whether goes with the inflation or risks the political conditions in 2017, the France election in March and the Germany council election in September. The populist culture movements from EU and all around the world is just in a beginning stage, the USA is now in the first stage of an isolationism in 8- 10 years like 1930's before the WWII, an 100 years cycle completion. I don't want to talk too much because most of people can't understand it. The market is a part of our civilization, I can see many futures in it and some of them was in our history.
“History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain
Comment: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/producer-prices-change
As I'm posting the Germany PPI is published ......
To be clear, just like last time I posted Germany interests rates and some people blamed Germany central bank.
It's NOT their problem.
Comment: The France CPI and PPI is going higher from today's publishing. So EU zone's two wheels, the inflations of France and Germany are both going higher. The Scotland vote could be the trigger of an final opportunity for buying the EURO from the bottom. This's NOT a signal but I would like to wait for 2 weeks in the March.
Comment: The weekly time window starts from 13th. March is very sensitive for the global market as I predicted it 2 months ago. After I checked the central banks calendar today I realized it's a storm week where full of the interests rates decisions. I'd like to wait for them.
Comment: This is NOT a signal but a joke from the Chinese TV show "Bao qing tian".
" How do you look at that, Yuan Fang?" - inspired by the channel idea from trading view community. Thanks for the new feature bottom "all".
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Comment: The new button "all" ... I blame my iPad input program, again.
Comment: We now focus on Netherland election result on 15th. March, it could show a sign of the France election and a sign of the populist culture movement trending.
Some people like Chinese politicians are still saying the movement is "political wrong". Let me tell you something beyond your cognation: they're born "right". So they must be right. Seriously speaking, What is politic? It's a form of human social classes system by people's power. How many people are still thinking President Trump can win the power without worker classes and blue collar classes and the military classes supporting? And he's not your president? He is your President who was elected by the very successful system which has been lasting in 250 years, and you think it's not right?
Comment: For the new house rule. It's forcing me to look for the news and to read it carefully.
http://www.france24.com/en/20161230-eu-elections-2017-le-pen-fillon-wilders-immigration-france-germany-netherlands
Comment: Waiting for NFP tomorrow more importantly FRB decision in the storm week and also I suggest waiting a little longer for the yearly China meeting is over. We shall wait and see Lol...
Comment: I usually use dailyfx to watch SSI sentiments but from yesterday the DATA is sabotaged. I can see it's wrong because every data is net long. Fortunately I can still watch other web sites for the real data. I'll show less information because of I suspect the chinese government is watching my analysis already.
Even if you can block the hongkong web site doesn't mean you can block all the information from out side, unless you block the internet. FXXK the GFW. - Victor.Y.F
Comment: to ECB officers:
It's not the low interests but the negative interests which is sabotaging the commodities markets prices's continuity is the most matter, history prices must be respected or the consequences could jump out to punish your ignorances. Canceling the negative and extending the QE is the right thing to do if the real inflation is for sure. DO NOT cheat me like others, the negative thing is a tightening but not easing, right? Surprising again? scalpers, traders ...and most of the overrated Chinese analysis.
Negative interests is a tightening. - Victor.Y.F
Comment: G20 is holding in Germany this weekend, at this very key time window where the storm is happening I suggest traders flat. Everything will be settled down next week and trading will carry on.
Comment: In 2017 the negative interests may rejoin the inflation at some point but I doubt ECB is already addicted it. Like the heroine drugs the negative thing is unhealthy and a illusion. I urge that ECB cancel it as soon as possible. The right thing to do is start QE but not tightenning and return the measuring currency back to US Dollar...
Comment: Source: http://www.standardandpoors.com/
SNP predict:
1, ECB extending QE to 2018 ( In fact, it's 2019 because it means 2018 is covered).
2, ECB canceling negative interests to ZERO in 2017 ( Return measuring currency back to US dollar, yes it's the right thing to do)
3, ECB cutting purchasing 40 Billion/month after June of 2017 ( from 1000 B/month)
All fits my simulations before...
Comment: In my new simulations US Dollar could stop hikes at this summer in 2017.
Comment: http://www.france24.com/en/20170330-france-could-far-right-marine-le-pen-become-french-president-glass-ceiling-macron
Faire Le Pont Victor.Y.F
She just announced a France exit vote no early than the September if she wins.
Comment: To be clear, I hope EU zone keeping together. My attitude is: all of those problems we have now should blame ECB money policy, especially the negative interests from 2nd. Feb. 2015 the negative day.
After the negative day, we have many problems, Stock crash, Renminbi devaluation, Brexit, US election, now France election. ECB have responsibilities to control the inflation, it is time to return the measuring currency back to US Dollar. The EU zone geopolitics and culture movement situations are becoming hardly for control soon. The USA under Trump's administration is better.
Comment: We have ECB key decision at 27th. April 2017, same day as BOJ, my new simulations suggest expanding QE and keeping interests at zero point ( negative before). The market could surprise you guys, be careful, the France election.
Comment: It's the BOJ move but not from ECB FYI. I consider ECB is addicted to the drugs already.
Also something interesting here. Source:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-leaks-jamie-dimons-annual-200037318.html
Check out number 3. " Dimon also brought up his concerns with Brexit and the European Union. The JPMorgan CEO said that he hoped Brexit would bring the EU closer together but admitted that it could "result in political unrest that would force the EU to split apart."
Do you now feel better?
Comment: Yesterday our Japanese analyst and I have an interesting talk about why US-China have to hold the second round meeting in Washington. We drew all lines together and found those treads point to only one conclusion ...
This's very sensitive now what I can tell you guys is the risk on is coming back and forex market shall move.
Comment: Source:
http://www.france24.com/en/tag/french-presidential-elections-2017/
Now we focus on France election. The first round result could be the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) and the "Macron cake" (Macron). Then we go to the second round.
ECB officer, ECB may have to supply ELA to French Banks after the first round result. That means there's an impulse and a supply after that. For me the first round vote is very likely ends with Le Pen. The key is the second round vote.
I personally favorite the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) wins the Presidency. My anti-terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
Comment: This might be annoying but truth is boring, right?
French people are idealism. They imported too many potential terrorists. They've lost their main stream culture from population unbalancing. This is changing now.
Je suis Charlie. Victor.Y.F
Comment: Source:
http://www.france24.com/en/20170420-obama-makes-friendly-call-french-presidential-hopeful-macron-hint-election
Mais, I'est perdu.
But he's lost. Lol.....
Comment: Le Pen and Macron go to the second round, as predicted ( easily for me)
Weekly gap up, an impulse and a supply to 1.0840 fill the gap and retest the neck line too. We could go long again from there.
In the second round if any accident happens from terrorists attacking then Le Pen's winning odd will increase aggressively. Her winning will bring us the France exit vote no soon than the Sept. 2017. Le Pen (believe it or not she's not a right wing) and Macron (in the middle for sure) no matter who wins the presidency will give us the middle route for the EU zone. From forex market risk view, the France election risk is passed already. Look at XAU and Yen they're going weak, right?
Comment: Guys... Please do NOT short this now ok? The 1.0830 is the horizon where the neck line standing. Head is at 1.03 target 1.13 ok? Then short from there the gap will be filled.
Comment: Some things I want to point out :
There's no need to fill this gap from EURO tightening. We could test 1.10 middle figure from 1.13 dropping and target 1.17- 1.20 with Le Pen wins.
There's no difference between rising wedge and falling wedge in this condition.
This gap could be an typical moving of the major wave 3rd. of the 3rd. from EW wave count.
Do not long DXY and short this now, ok?
Comment: Oops ... told ya...
Comment: This is why we trade 10 months SMA could be very dangerous now... I'll zoom it for details.
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Comment: Details on the chart... I'll post a weekly OBV after
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Comment: After previewing TAX cut we know the trading conditions will be better.
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Comment: From the 2nd. Feb. 2015 (negative day or mirror day) we have weekly range trading for 26 months now. Looks like it'll go harmonic ways for more time in the future. If we have better conditions then the upper range from 1.15 to 1.24 will open to us, maybe next year.
Comment: If you guys followed this publish then you should have understand the update from the Jan. 2015 is very clearly pointed out the future. You should have took some good profits from this analysis.
The western civilization is always an art of the control more than the "ART" itself if we could say Chinese art is an original rough art. I mean, the market as a creation of western civilization is always very well controlled no matter you believe it or not. Many people think the market is free but is it the truth?
Thank you for your likes!
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