Trading harmonic patterns is simple. If the trend line is crossed then wait for the pullback and follow the C leg to complete targets fibs. Euro is just crossed. Finding more patterns from smaller time frame are good ideas too. They are fractals so smaller fractals should be everywhere.
If we have SPX500 and XAUUSD both rising that means the Dollar's compensation is incoming. That's the over heat phase. We could have pegged USDCNY at 6.8 platform for 2 years from 2017-2019 like 2008-2010. When USDCNY is stabled then the EURUSD will catch up weighted JPY at 1.2434 (more high could be at 1.32 )and USDJPY will be ranging and falling a bit for waiting the intervention of BOJ 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games for all good. ( USDJPY is still a bit falling because Dollar is falling harder than the weighted JPY, weighted JPY is falling too but less hard). All those factors bring us EURJPY strong move ahead that means DAX is rising too as the same correlation with the SPX500. So the correlations are all fitting.
I don't think China is ready for this movement because those leaders are mostly stupid they're too cozy to find the influence of culture but China could be benefits from this too. Honestly speaking, China doesn't need trading very much, as an old self- supplied, big country, block doesn't matter but a good chance. also the Renminbi's purchase power will be strengthening from Trump's shadow.
I really suggest western investors should keep in mind that the biggest market and the most purchase power is from China but not USA. We're poor and developing USA is rich and developed. The problem is capitalism doesn't work in negative interests, it's unsustainable. Capitalism should be fully competitive too but not protective. The progress is always from demand but not supply. From my point of view, it's not capitalism already.
I believe the market is part of our civilization and from history charts data we can predict the culture movement and geopolitical events too. ( I predicted Brexit and Trump's win) Here I want to be clear, all my prediction and analysis is from the objective charts but NOT from your presumed superstitious and imaginations. It's like logical deduction or like elementary from a police case solving.
Most of traders and scalpers can't understand it but few analyst. It's beyond your cognition.
Please check on the Germany inflation rates and you'll find the EURO was hiked in Dec. 2016. It looks like central banks tend to add the interests rates into the inflation for balancing the purchase power as Fisher's equation showing us.
After so many evidences are showed and Trump's advisor team hinted at Davos. I'm wondering how many traders and scalpers are still waiting for the DXY 5th. wave. BTW, DXY is 34% EURO weighted, they have all time negative correlation as the mathematic equation result.
The classic EW wave theory has some problems, now we're in an era of EA and robots are trading in markets and we're evolving to 7. ( The most interesting thing is that we have most people trading like robots, scalpers. Lol)
Pullback completed as expected, new cycle could have begun from here. Please don't short this, scalpers and speculators.
“History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” - Mark Twain
As I'm posting the Germany PPI is published ......
To be clear, just like last time I posted Germany interests rates and some people blamed Germany central bank.
It's NOT their problem.
" How do you look at that, Yuan Fang?" - inspired by the channel idea from trading view community. Thanks for the new feature bottom "all".
Some people like Chinese politicians are still saying the movement is "political wrong". Let me tell you something beyond your cognation: they're born "right". So they must be right. Seriously speaking, What is politic? It's a form of human social classes system by people's power. How many people are still thinking President Trump can win the power without worker classes and blue collar classes and the military classes supporting? And he's not your president? He is your President who was elected by the very successful system which has been lasting in 250 years, and you think it's not right?
Even if you can block the hongkong web site doesn't mean you can block all the information from out side, unless you block the internet. FXXK the GFW. - Victor.Y.F
It's not the low interests but the negative interests which is sabotaging the commodities markets prices's continuity is the most matter, history prices must be respected or the consequences could jump out to punish your ignorances. Canceling the negative and extending the QE is the right thing to do if the real inflation is for sure. DO NOT cheat me like others, the negative thing is a tightening but not easing, right? Surprising again? scalpers, traders ...and most of the overrated Chinese analysis.
Negative interests is a tightening. - Victor.Y.F
1, ECB extending QE to 2018 ( In fact, it's 2019 because it means 2018 is covered).
2, ECB canceling negative interests to ZERO in 2017 ( Return measuring currency back to US dollar, yes it's the right thing to do)
3, ECB cutting purchasing 40 Billion/month after June of 2017 ( from 1000 B/month)
All fits my simulations before...
Faire Le Pont Victor.Y.F
She just announced a France exit vote no early than the September if she wins.
After the negative day, we have many problems, Stock crash, Renminbi devaluation, Brexit, US election, now France election. ECB have responsibilities to control the inflation, it is time to return the measuring currency back to US Dollar. The EU zone geopolitics and culture movement situations are becoming hardly for control soon. The USA under Trump's administration is better.
Also something interesting here. Source:
Check out number 3. " Dimon also brought up his concerns with Brexit and the European Union. The JPMorgan CEO said that he hoped Brexit would bring the EU closer together but admitted that it could "result in political unrest that would force the EU to split apart."
Do you now feel better?
This's very sensitive now what I can tell you guys is the risk on is coming back and forex market shall move.
Now we focus on France election. The first round result could be the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) and the "Macron cake" (Macron). Then we go to the second round.
ECB officer, ECB may have to supply ELA to French Banks after the first round result. That means there's an impulse and a supply after that. For me the first round vote is very likely ends with Le Pen. The key is the second round vote.
I personally favorite the "petit Pont" (Le Pen) wins the Presidency. My anti-terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
French people are idealism. They imported too many potential terrorists. They've lost their main stream culture from population unbalancing. This is changing now.
Je suis Charlie. Victor.Y.F
Mais, I'est perdu.
But he's lost. Lol.....
Weekly gap up, an impulse and a supply to 1.0840 fill the gap and retest the neck line too. We could go long again from there.
In the second round if any accident happens from terrorists attacking then Le Pen's winning odd will increase aggressively. Her winning will bring us the France exit vote no soon than the Sept. 2017. Le Pen (believe it or not she's not a right wing) and Macron (in the middle for sure) no matter who wins the presidency will give us the middle route for the EU zone. From forex market risk view, the France election risk is passed already. Look at XAU and Yen they're going weak, right?
There's no need to fill this gap from EURO tightening. We could test 1.10 middle figure from 1.13 dropping and target 1.17- 1.20 with Le Pen wins.
There's no difference between rising wedge and falling wedge in this condition.
This gap could be an typical moving of the major wave 3rd. of the 3rd. from EW wave count.
Do not long DXY and short this now, ok?
The western civilization is always an art of the control more than the "ART" itself if we could say Chinese art is an original rough art. I mean, the market as a creation of western civilization is always very well controlled no matter you believe it or not. Many people think the market is free but is it the truth?
I always suggest avoiding trades of CHF. The SNB lost trader's trusts from 2015.
I suggest traders be prepared for this condition where NO circulation will be provided for banks and for brokers to execute trader's stop losses.
Consider an potential EURO huge impulse to 1.20 will drag down DXY and will drag down gold from SNB's weakening CHF possibility is becoming higher. The second black swan could happen but inverted the Jan. 2015 sequence.
EURO impulse up in this simulation.
Le pen: "Expecting French people use Franc in a year. Every country should have used their own currency. It's easier to use own currency than import EURO."
My point is:
Two wheels of EU zone have some seriously problems now. If any terrorist attacking happens Le Pen's winning odds will be massively increase which could be quickly manipulated and be easily mislead.
Brexit, again as I predicted, is an hundred year cycle historical culture turning from globalizing, as long as China didn't realize it China is making huge mistakes now from Renminbi's devaluation serving the one belt one road and dreaming of globalization development.
For example, when Spanish conquistador's battle ships reached the beach Indians even didn't see them in 1000 meters. Because Indians have never recognized them before.
Those unnatural facts and wrongly manipulated money policies extremely tested human culture limits and our civilizations edges. Now let it be, we will see who and which could survive it.
Now we focus on the key election in France. If "le petit pont" wins EURO will gap up and if "the Macron cake" wins EURO will fill the previous gap and still going up. I prefer Le Pen myself but looks like she's losing after the public debate if there's no accident from here to the final result.
Now feel free to enjoy some music. (It's hard to find the link because of GFW)
The source track is on youtube too looks like it's ok to play it. "Surrender" - Guardians of the Galaxy: Awesome Mix, Vol. 2 (Original Motion Picture Soundtrack)
Looks like EURO will go higher with DAX and SPX500 and the correlation is changing from negative to positive after this key election.
Let's see how stupid is Renminbi, it will go down with DXY or not.
Just like the China did the A shares in a wrong way. We should have done it by the right way. The China leaders are cowards.
I like the globalization but now it's time to think about its problems. First of all, we should have kept our own culture before we find the narrow path, where is between preserving and not rolling back our civilizations.
Blame the iPad input program.
Now USDCHN is pegging for 1 more year. Consider the USA future growth, Euro dollar could fall into an abyss but no worries, the EURUSD ratio doesn't matter in G8 mathematic model, right? Traders should have known it already. All that most matters is the inflation and the DAX, SPX500.
correction: Now the crowds are coming.
"Some side-effect has demolished" ( he hinted the A shares market, from 2015 the Euro weakness has weekly negative correlation with the Shares, or saying the Euro weakness has supported the A shares). We now look for the A shares up side moving because of the supply is limited. This will lead to Euro rising.
"With a recovering an more healthy interests will come back" this's the first time We've seen minister Draghi saying the Euro interests will go higher, very bullish.
The M3 money supply in the April is 4.9% less than 5.3 previously supply, this explained the gap on 17th. April.
The EURUSD speculators net short positions is at 2.1 short Vs. 1 long from the FXCM SSI, this's telling us the Euro rising isn't over yet.
Now we're focusing on the U.K reelection and the ECB meeting in June, also the Wednesday close of the A shares market, the key monthly close.
After China market is stabled, here comes the problem of the DXY representing short term inflation, or saying the oil and the food inflation. It's an very thin edge the ECB and the FRB is walking on. Those policies cards should be playing in a very specific sequence. Only if the Euro dollar negative interests is canceling could lead to the Euro dollar representing inflation, AKA the core one. If they play those cards in a wrong sequence, be careful traders, there could be an huge shock to the market because of the unnatural policies causing culture movements and political accidents, from the USA and form EU zone, the U.K too.
Target 1.1350 to short as a short term signal.
I wouldn't be surprising if this pair go to head shoulders 1X PO target soon.
From 2015 the FRB is using DXY as the USA inflation statistics, we should keep watching the CPI and the IR very carefully to find more clues. In a condition where the Euro is at negative interests and the EBC addicted to manipulate the market, there're more possibilities they will devaluate Euro again. ( maybe in 2018)
We may have 1100 pips run to 1.14 and a pull back then to 1.21 then 1.23 before Christmas 2017, the whole year of Euro running to 2018, totally 1100-1100-1100 pips waves of WXYXZ or 12345 on weekly chart.
Divergences are everywhere in our real lives and the commodities market, the capitalism has a problem now. It's time to say Carl Max's book has some thing right about it. He's German, right?
I'm clearly criticizing central banks careless about the inflation direction. The stocks markets and the inflation direction should have been supported from money policy by a smaller cycle. A 6 years cycle is too big.
"It's my turn" - from the netflix TV show "House of Cards" Season 5.
The speculators sentiment is over -2 on EURUSD which is showing more rising, typical trending market. Scalpers are shorting this pair like crazy but blind on EU zone's growth and US data weakness.
This profits taking area is just a sub wave top of the major wave's the 3rd. of the 3rd. wave from small time frame, it may go higher after some major wave's the 4th.wave consolidations. Because of the independence day, we usually have US dollar strengthening in July.
Recently the IDC data and the FXCM data are lagging from banks. I'v found the DXY lowest low today is at 95.45 where is lower than TV by 0.3.
From 1.03-1.14 is about 1100 pips as predicted. We may pullback some fibs. for a new target around 1.2.
The 5 wave impulse is very hard to stop like a bullet train. I don't want to call a top for stopping this train as an comic hero Lol... but from weekly ATR measuring, this swing may limited by 300 pips a fully candle weekly bar where closes at 1.1461. Next week may be forming a top maybe not. You guys can see the DXY target 91 with an impulse was predicted.
1, the ECB cancels negative immediately and starts to purchase. (the negative thing is a tightening, I told you guys before) 1.20-1.24 should be reached then a big pullback from purchasing.
2, the US dollar devaluation for pegging with the falling inflation to keep it at high level.
These two simulations could work together too. The worse one may be the weighted Yen, for keeping the indexes from cashing, the BOJ may devaluate the Yen to it's lowest level where is lower than 2014's low, crazy...
Not only in weekly chart but also in daily chart we can see some patterns here.
Monthly RSI has a potential to the up side, the first leg measuring form 1.04 to 1.17, now the breaking leg may have found an E point to the target by a triangle burst.
A bullet train.
There will be a moment for testing the Yuan's health level by the EU soon.
There're two ways of waiting for the 10 months SMA catching up. The first one, pull back quickly. The second one, flat several months and the SMA rises by it self. After the catching up, our train should leave the station to the north again, maybe in 2018.
I would like to see a flat or saying a range. By an observation of weekly ATR we would like to find the range trading for many months till the next move.
Today Grandma Yellen promises us that on Oct. they shall begin to cut sheet, or saying they will take market control from the ECB but the Euro is still lagging. It looks like the ECB don't want to let it go. (addicted to the power?)
The long term perspective is showing us that a 3 years "QT" = Quantity Tightening cycle, which is a counter cycle from "QE" will begin.
Source: (Kevin Warsh may take the power from Grandma Yellen)
An new view is suggesting that the interests will lead a way, interests, inflation, stocks, one by one.
If Kevin takes the power. I predict he will hike bigger and hike more for the inflation target until the stock markets failure, then the squeezing...
This is an open ending decision, the Euro Zone many country members want soft. The ECB leaves the FRB has less choice but to move it by themselves. Tailor or Powell, now more likely will be Tailor.
This's slowing down global recovery, means a pull back it is.
1, the Euro will follow the Oz.
2, the Oz. will catch up the US dollar.
3, where the weighted Yen has been to, the Oz. is following it.
4, the interests is leading a way.
5, surprisingly, stocks are going higher too.
I thought "OMG, this is a speculation sentiments extreme situation... and also the culture movement should've begun already"
So I left them as soon as possible.
Will the angel be falling? Let’s see...
You may take some advantage of the negative thing but it’s not human natural. When the truth is coming how will central banks do with it? In such twisted market? The commodities markets are sabotaging by it? The capitals are swollen from the black hole of the negative axis of the price?
It’s purely experimental... and they’ve used it.
Stock market, Euro dollar, both down after some squeezing higher, only the inflation has some future but limited after a little crashing, this may take 1-2 years in EUROPE... 1 year is the best way with huge collapse, 2 years are worse scenarios than 1 year. The investors condition may be getting worse in Euro dollar during the pullout back. It’s now like China, if Renminbi is still a coward to hike.
It's ranging some where... could be in 2 years.
Soon the "single market" where is between USA and EU zone will be divided. We're warning traders DAX falling and EURUSD lower, also the interest is very low. The EU zone inflation is a failure now. It's a very cold Christmas this year in Europe, saying the market condition is getting worse without courage, just like China shit market.
We're gonna close EURUSD around 1.1500 at the end of year 2017.
ECB’s Vasiliauskas: Now it's a good time to start QE end debate
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Discussion about QE end will continue in 2018.
Now it's a good time to start QE end debate.
more added "The target has been done"
---------------------------------------------- a separate line here
Very funny, after my predictions? A little be late...
With core inflation is at the edge of abysmal fall and stocks overdraw EU zone's 6 years future, they're lying on your face that a success is done? Seriously?
We would like to keep this publishing for a little longer before we close it.
We're warning traders that it's too dangerous to long it now, we've predicted DXY chart already but we don't know how high the China market could go, technically a 50%-61.8% retrace is the EURUSD's favorite.
Technically, comparing with an impulse wave prediction, an healthy pull back usually has more possibly. Please remember that nothing rises forever, market don't move straight.
EU zone investor should've paid more attentions to inflation "V" shape, as ECB have warned us before.
"Market is a ( range of) mountains " Victor.Y.Y
The chart way is NOT our trading way!
Scalpers should stick with your own way!
We suggest you to trade small TF harmonic patterns with the trend. We also suggest you to trade hourly EMA after the mid term trend is identified on daily or weekly chart, after contact your analyst.
We're closing this publishing soon, a new one will be released.
New long term chart is at working, please wait for a while before its publishing.......
To be clear, We don't work for the China government and China bank but independent analysts. We don't trade news too.
We've been ST out again, a new high (1.2218) above 1.2092. Now we're looking for the core inflation "V" shape as ECB has mentioned before but with some doubts.
There're still some questions about this higher.
1, If the core inflation is breaking out we should have AUDUSD ( miners) breaking the Sept. 2017 high too, but the problem is that it's not breaking, yet.
2, The XAUUSD isn't breaking Sept. 2017 high too. It's looks like full correlated without lagging.
3, The ATR in AUDUSD is lower than EURUSD, if US dollar dropping lower, the EU zone core inflation will be still weak. We need more volatile in the Oz. and commodities market to confirm it.
We use SMA on long term human chart. We use EMA on short term machine chart.
We should've closed this earlier. We're gonna publish new chart soon.
The speculators sentiment is over -2 on EURUSD which is showing more rising, typical trending market. Scalpers are shorting this pair like crazy but blind on EU zone's growth and US data weakness.