The final dropping should be pressed by DXY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
546 4 17
On chart. Be careful with EURUSD             it's launching now.
Comment: The weighted JPY doesn't reach it's purchase power yet. If BOJ persists on getting 2% inflation target then weighted JPY must reach 8.3 (7.1 neckline) in the future. This pair is leading gold for several months and we're now seeing it's pullback to neckline and falls again. Even if BOJ will do something in Oct. but just a bigger pullback. I think this pair should reach it's final target lower than 90 it could last 3 years from 2015 to 2018 for gold reaching it's top higher than 1920.
Comment: By the way, the Tokyo Olympic Games will take place in 2020 in Japan. I think the inflation will be topped in the end of 2018. BOJ will have permission to do forex market intervention by G8 group countries in Oct. 2018 for good. It will take 2 years for this pair reaches it's 143 target and the cycles will complete there.
Comment: If FRB insists 2% inflation target then this pair will trade lower to 126-106-86 head shoulder PO target.
Comment: BOJ and FRB are all insisting in 2% inflation targets. BOJ raised 10 years bunds interests and will keep it at 0 from previous negative interests. Not pretty one at monthly time frame which speculations don't often look at.
Comment: Trend is still working but after brexit the market does consolidation. Look US election result for more risks and Britain trade deal with EU. It's not over yet.
Comment: If all markets are consolidating l'll change to daily scalping. Not too stubborn and be flexible.
Comment: Some explanation:
USA inflation is representing by DXY now as our researching. The second rates hike will prove the overheat phase of USA. In that phase, commercial currencies will rise agaist Usdollar especially the weighted JPY(JPY could be weak because of it's already strengthening for 24 months) and OZ dollar. The more hike the more inflation. FRB rising rates with 0.25% will push USA inflation up by 0.7% volume like last year and we have had 5 months DXY weakness after the hike.
That's why we are saying it's a self fulfilling machine. We've had too long deflation to realize that we're at the beginning of the inflation cycle.
Comment: We're testing the 106.21 where we mentioned on the updated chart above, the key level 10 months SMA. Don't be fooled. This is NOT turning the trend. We will see the tail of the renminbi's devaluation.
Comment: It's reversing look at this! OBV is showing us an ABYSS! Be carefull!
Comment: Now we have confirmed that BOJ intervened bunds market from 2 years JPY bond and 10 years JPY bond. The key is the 2 years JPY bond. Forex rates is equal to the 2 years bond interests ratio. USDJPY = USD/JPY = US 2 years bond interests / JAPAN 2 years bond interests. We know the US 2 years bond interests are rising, JAPAN 2 years bond interests are following. But yesterday, BOJ interverned bunds market by suppress the 2 years bond interests. This means BOJ started forex intervention without G8 group country permission.
Comment: Update USDJPY
Comment: "A 6.9 magnitude earthquake off eastern Japan near Fukushima prefecture has prompted a tsunami warning of possible 3m (10ft) waves. BBC reports."
The situation looks like the year of 2011, don't be fooled by the indexes, inflation, gold, stocks they're time lagging correlated in 2016. Even if in 2011 weighted JPY still tested back the high after the tragic accident that means there're more downside of indexes. If you look at stocks then you shloud follow the gold.
Comment: Update from UK quit sequence time window, this is very likely. In Oct. 2018 we will get 2% inflation target.
Comment: Some explanations:
1, We can not get 2% inflation target now, the "a" wave on chart.
2, We begins "b" wave for pushing A shares and stocks new highs. Flat wave b could be higher than start of a wave, that's a new high or A shares testing 5178 even breaking 6124 (not likely but still possible) historical high.
3, Strong "c" 5 wave impulse will get us inflation target 2% or plus.
4, At "c" wave point BOJ will save the world by G8 industry countires permission of forex market intervention like the year 2011, a 7 years cycle completion.
5, Stocks indexes like SPX and DAX they're human infinity stones. Never short human civilization it's the dark side.
Comment: We have only about 1.7- 1.8% inflation in USA and we failed that target. From my point of view the reason is that FRB did it wrong by delaying hike.
We've ended overheat phase now (usally it's lasting 20 month of weighted JPY's strengthening and we have 24 months of it from end of 2014 ). If FRB rises rates in Dec. 2016 the inflation will reach about 2.1% very shortly and falls. I called it an "artificial inflation".
If FRB and BOJ don't give up, the resolution is a second pushing of stocks as "b" wave on chart but the time is very limited. Because we should have strong "C" wave down. After Brexit weighted JPY high Jul. 2016 to Oct. 2018 intervention it's only 27 months. That's too short for weighted JPY to form a second 20 months overheat phase(20 in 27 is too big ).
So we shall have a very volatile market to catch the time window. We've seen UJ run about 1500 pips from 99 that's the catching wave. I think in 2017 we will have the very quick rising of indexes from global stocks markets and we will top somewhere from the end of year 2017 to 2018, follows a very quick and a big crashing for reaching inflation target in Oct. 2018.
From EW wave technical analysis the weighted JPY first rising move is a 5 wave structure because the pull back must be a 3- 7- 11 waves so it's not complete, we must have a 535 zigzag from weighted JPY. As we have on the UJ chart is a 335 flat.
Comment: Brexit negotiation schedule reminders:
now to 2017/3 traditional new year and Christmas if FRB rises same as 2015/3
2017/3 triggers the 50th. law ( gold topped stocks rising rapidly) risk on
2017/7- 2018 stocks are topped and weighted JPY rises again risk off
2018/10 completes sequence ( BOJ intervention time window) new cycle begins
2019/3 UK quit takes effects another 7 years recovery risk on
Comment: look at those clues they're fitting nicely. Why UK has limited time? Think about BOJ.
Comment: A shares is falling today. Global stocks are following the risk off mode soon. The "b" wave could have been completed without forming a flat. From time perspective this icould be catching the "c" wave sequence.
Comment: A year ago, We saw it.
Comment: We would like to update this after FRB decision.
If the "b" wave is compelted with 2 conditions fulfilled, 1, renminbi is NO easing from PBOC, this condition will keep A shares lower and weighted JPY second rising as the real overheat 20 months phase. 2, FRB is changing back inflation and gold negative correlation.
From 2014/12 to 2016/8, there're 20 months FRB has been inverting the inflation and gold positive correlation causing a seriously problem of stagflation mixed with overheat. Good thing is that FRB had enough profits to hike in Dec. 2015 but the bad thing is that when inflation fails the gold is rising to against DXY rising. ( A guess: Now in Dec. 2016 FRB has NO enough profits to hike from Brexit stop loss( 100% stopped out) and Trump stop loss ( partially stopped out about 50% of first order) And also it's a market cheating way too. It has to be changed back now.( Trump will find out it soon after he puts someone in the board) )
I suppose that in a normal overheat phase FRB should be longing gold from 2014/10 and it's very easy to make profits from inflation rising and that money will be handed to US treasury for paying USD interests hike.
We counts down back 20 months "real" overheat from 2018/12. 2017/12+12 minus 20 equals to 2017/4. That means in some where next year in Spring or Summer season, FRB will earn enough money to do the second hike and that will be a huge hike.
We're looking for FRB changing back the correlation in Dec. 2016. From then FRB will turn to long gold for performing the overheat phase as stop the cheating way. So in 2016 they had about 75% profits and next year they will have about 175% profits to hike or more profits that depends how high the inflation will go.
The next hike will be huge and NO hike in Dec.2016. We're saying "it's paused".
Comment: To be clear FRB still shorting gold without taking profits but they have to make it down to traget 1100 for 100% profits to hike in Dec. 2016. That's very hard now. Look at UJ and EU they look like not agree with FRB soon.
If FRB can make it lower to 1100 then they can still hike but only 0.25%. That's a failure too. Because the market has been priced in already.
Comment: Most important negotiation US- China trade deal in Spring 2017.
USDCNY 7.0 could go back to 6.0. A shares, weighted JPY and Japan inflation.
Comment: Trump is good at business but he says Japan can't get advantage from USA. He doesn't know YEN's rising has a collateral damage with stocks and risk on sentiments. Now we cloud have a pull back before BOJ steps in. BOJ still has 1.8% inflation target to reach in 2017. So this's a retrace for now, it could become trend change if BOJ follows with the inflation and not to push it. Traders can play it for a while.
Comment: Key fighting at 115.624 also DXY 100.81. VIX is too low be careful!
Comment: A triangle breaking out, under 112.00 level target 106.379 as a 0.618 retracement.
Comment: We have BOJ key decision at 27th. April 2017, my new simulations suggest expanding QE and keeping interests at zero point ( negative before). The market could surprise you guys, be careful, the France election.
Comment: Looks like BOJ has some lines to protect at 110 handle. From long term point of view weighted JPY have no fundemental condition for keeping strong but only risk off mode. I suggest you guys ignoring the correlation between USDJPY and XAUUSD now. Because XAUJPY is moving fast from the inflation going higher in Japan. Only if the BOJ decides to follow the inflation would cause the USDJPY is correlated with XAUUSD. It's very complicated if you're unfamiliar to the correlations. I would like to say USDJPY i's range higher or even weaker from DXY's pullback. It depends which one is weaker. Basically BOJ will follow President Trump's direction but not from FRB in the future. FRB is losing the US Dollar's control.
Comment: The daily chart is very commercial, I seldom show it but this is an exception. Just for your information, the FXCM SSI is now 2.3 net long of USDJPY, the XAUUSD is -2 net short of lots and -1.3 net short of positions.
Scalpers should always have good habits to check up the SSI before entries. The market mostly time is against speculators sentiment, few times speculators are right. If you check up it and keep using the same account management, you should have been a very stable trader for long term profits already.
Comment: Many traders have habits to trade counter trend if the trend pulls back, but I suggest flat because the market doesn't have to reach the daily inflection zone. In this case UJ pulled back to hourly inflection zone and broke 110 handle. So now what?
Now all scalpers crying for BOJ intervention, but the SSI is heavily net long from FXCM data, the UJ is 2.9, others are bigger than 3.0 from Yen crosses. Even if BOJ want to do it but the costs will be huge. Also Yen now is very politic, BOJ can't act without Prime Ministers Anbei's permission and President Trump's permission.
I hope you guys are on the right side of the market...
Comment: BOJ meeting is at the 27th. April, the Yen may act next week for saving stock markets from crashing. Japan treasury minister delivered a message in G20 meeting this week. The France election needs Yen's weakness too. I suggest Yen carry trades but not UJ because the core inflation should keep going higher slowly in that circumstance we should have DXY and Yen going weak together. UJ could be flat and slowly rise for several months.
Risk on is coming back soon. The global stocks markets are still going higher with the core inflation till next summer in 2018.
Comment: This's an alert!
I suggest traders be prepared for this condition where NO circulation will be provided for banks and for brokers to execute trader's stop losses.
Consider an potential EURO huge impulse to 1.20 will drag down DXY and will drag down gold from SNB's weakening CHF possibility is becoming higher. The second black swan could happen but inverted the Jan. 2015 sequence.
USDJPY flat in this simulation.
Comment: We have had 10 months SMA closed above in the April. Candle analysis suggest long from daily pull backs. This a flat or a small long will be decided by US dollar's weakness.
Comment: This is a gift... short from top ok? Put stop loss as same as your target.
Can't wait to watch the movie "Guardians of The Galaxy" any more... in hours...
Comment: Now traders could move your stop loss to the break even or take partial profits from entries if your have multiple orders. Let the market do the rest, ok?
A very good movie as expected the "Guardians of The Galaxy 2". Here comes the joke. We've seen In Star Wars 7 Kylo Ren killed one father, in Guardians of The Galaxy 2 Peter Quill killed two fathers, guess there're more fathers to kill... Lol...
Comment: Not high enough to draw your attentions? Now crows are coming...
Structure is clear here. Halted at once...
Comment: In case you're pattern guys...
Comment: Now we take profits and wait.
Comment: The weighted Japanese YEN intervention odd is increasing to 50% in June after an terrorism attack happened in Manchester yesterday. We don't trade those incidents because of moral rules, in fact, the investment set long before those things happen where based on technical chart combined with fundamental statistics.
Now we pray for U.K and be ready for against terrorism like always. My anti terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
Comment: The market sentiments show us that there're 35% speculators holding shorts Vs. 65% speculators holding longs or saying it could still going lower. We made a new low yesterday BTW.
On 16th. June the BOJ may do a intervention for an excuse of pushing Japan inflation target, in fact they're helping the indexes. Sneak attcking like always. Lol
Comment: Boring again today's BOJ...
Comment: I hope it's not too late for reminding you guys... the weighted Yen is following the falling inflation to the bottom.
This's not a signal...
Comment: Today the BOJ announces an unlimited purchasing of Japan Government 10Y Bonds for keeping its yield at 0.11% level. BOJ also is expanding 5-10Y Bonds purchasing from 450B Yen to 500B Yen. Those actions is supporting the prediction of BOJ intervention in summer. Yes they're doing it again.
This is good for indexes especially for A shares bad for metals, the silver is crashing today.
Comment: A reminder, guys do not short any of Yen pairs! we may have a triangle breaking out.
Comment: Again, please do not short Yen pairs, from weighted YEN point of view we have breached the 16th. Dec. 2016 low where the second US dollar's hiking. This may become into a triangle burst after pull back to 113 level. The UJ most likely will go to 115 or higher measuring by a triangle target.
Comment: To be clear, this is not a signal service.
Source form Dailyfx Asia :
The BOJ plans to purchase 330B 3-5Y Yen Japan Government Bonds, plans to purchase 450B 5-10Y Yen Japan Goverment Bonds.
Comment: From A shares are going to a new high prediction, consider the DXY weakness, AU target, AJ target, calculating an UJ first target 107, an UJ second target 103. The forex market could have changed some how but traders are ignoring it.
I will update this publishing soon, a pure technical chart with both directions.
Comment: Now we should have the weighted Yen weakness but in order to keep the XAUUSD flat the US dollar is following the Yen. There're more opportunities in commercial currency Vs. JPY but the UJ should rise slowly. This's waiting for A shares topping.
Comment: If the XAU keeps going higher and the UJ correlation is good, we should achieve 107 the first target then we're looking for 103 the second target as predicted on 15th July.
Comment: On the way.
Comment: There're 26% shorts Vs. 74% longs from FXCM data, which is 3 times long heavily net long holdings on UJ now...
Comment: There's a 4 times net long holdings now and this's lagging from XAUUSD if they have a small timeframe correlation. We're going to the second target and the trend line. I have to warn you guys, after the trend line and after a small hook pull back, the biggest triangle is breaking out.
Comment: It's healthy to see an hook and a neck line range between 108-111 area then the last impulse should come in with an other 5 wave impulse.
Good to see a Chinese version is opening on TV.
Comment: The market sentiment is changing into net short holding where we don't suggest scalpers shorting the UJ now. Trader scalping should be along with the short time EMA to the upper trend line around 114 or higher with expanded flat and a range is expected for months.
We are now more like buying A shares of China stocks in some specific sectors. The weighted JPY is weakening all across the board, risk off.
Comment: The question is which way is a much more easier way for market to go from the E point? We have seen many market have reversed to the Trump election day, This one hasn't done that yet, right?
Comment: What a nice new episode of Star Trek! The sarcasm is that the battle ship ShenZhou which is a Chinese name with a Captain from a same origin is challenged and her strategy is wrong to the Klingon's fleet.
Think about North Korea... congratulations, now China has four nuclear neighbors around the geopolitic map, a "great" success.
Comment: Looks like the Japanese are sneak attacking it again, the BOJ intervention is causing the virtual reality again. This is why we need more hikes from US dollar, the inflation is failure with BOJ's moving. It's against the FRB hikes, FYI.
Technically the 7 waves may have been truncated but need more confirmations. We're bouncing off from 55 months SMA and invalidating 10 months SMA around 112-113 area. Now we're watching out the key level at 114.495, then 118.662. If the down trend line is breaking, we shall go to the 120-123 area for forming an A shares topping cycle in 12 months, the stock market is always the first then the squeezing, then the inflation, one by one.
The speculators sentiments are supporting to long this with 3 times net short holding by the FXCM data.
Comment: If the 0.886 harmonic pattern at 113.566 is holding and trend line holding, I predict that there will be the 7th. wave with a stock crashing soon, risk off mode, be careful here, an huge down, but the DXY and XAU may quickly rise by a squeezing.
Technically, it's lack of the 7th. wave, or lagging with core one.
I'm working on an special edition today, but in Chinese version. I predict that there might be an inflation reset before the cutting sheet and the power transferring from the ECB to FRB, it's not a smooth moving in a condition of such huge money policy changes.
Comment: With an Japan election on 10th. Oct. 2017, in a condition where is lack of the 7th. swing (a daily close above 113.566 will invalidate this simulation, the 10 months SMA is at 111.699 after the September's close). I predict a "black swan" situation: Japan Prime Minister Anbei may fail the election.
It's very interesting to see the U.K and Taiwan and the Japan may have female Prime Minsters.
Comment: Again, after I've checked up the weighted Yen weekly chart, it's on the 0.618 retracement of the yearly low where's from Dec.2014 to Brexit highest level with Yen cross pairs are at the 7 waves profits taking area.
Please be careful now with the Japan election and the VIX is at historically lowest level, an huge risk off is suggesting here.
There's no small time frame correlation with the DXY and XAU, BTW. In a condition of risk off mode, they may rise together and the Yen quickly rising shall do harm to the stock markets.
Comment: Pure technically, just a simulation.
Yen shall rise to hurt stock market soon. Risk off mode has a possibilly over 90%, DXY and XAU both rising.
Watch out Japan election. Japanese may have to drop peaceful constitution for protecting themselves from N.K and the first ring too, because US pull back to the second ring. They'll become a "normal" country soon. If this's the future, no good.
Comment: Plumed a top after NFP data, daily close candle is ugly and RSI divergences. I don't trade the NFP but look at the data continuity. This NFP data is showing salary growth should lead to an hike on Dec. 2017.
Comment: An inflation reset to 0% is suggesting.
Watch out Renminbi's hike or Japanese Yen moving. The DXY and Yen are both rising to harm the stock markets, risk off. Weighted Yen may rise to deeply correct 0.786 from low. A failure of Anbei tree arrows or an Japanese political incident (Anbei may lose his power) could happen here. VIX is too low to be true.
Something looks like the first hike of US dollar in 2015 is gonna happen.
Comment: After I redraw the NJ chart and I've found something new, this weekly chart which I wouldn't believe may have a future. To be clear, don't short the stocks and the core one, they both are gonna rise.
Comment: New evidence is showing that weighted Yen rising and inflation rising won’t hurt SPX500 and DAX30. If we look back 2010, the same situation happened here.
Now the markets don’t want to a Yen’s weakness but need its rising.
The interesting question is that Japan Prime Minister Anbei’s policy “tree arrows” is in fact based on the weakness of the weighted Yen. Is this hinting us that there will be a new female Prime Minister in the future? Who will be against the older one, because of there’s no need for him and his policies? A black swan on 22nd. Oct. 2017?
Comment: The scalpers are cheering for themselves to be Bitcoin maniacs, meanwhile the investor’s asset is moving slowly. Which one do you prefer? This answer may decide whether you’re a pro with human culture or just like a machine or a program without feelings.
Comment: The BOJ's new board member Takako Masai's (female) new speech: (in Japanese, for analyst only )
Source: BOJ official website
The new correlation doesn't support Yen's devaluation. If Abe will be re-elected, the Yen's squeezing into the DXY will cause the SPX500 and DA30 also the inflation failure which will be against "political right" in western markets. If Yuriko Koike wins, it's good for all markets.
We suggest all flat before the 22nd. Oct. Japan election, also Chinese 19th. meeting will end in Oct. may lead to Yuan's hike. No body expects the Brexit before it happens, but we predicted it.
Be careful here, ok?
Comment: Guys, be ready for the weighted Yen’s huge moving soon. Recently weakness could be the last wave before the impulse. Please Do not take a bait.
The stocks should be ok, not so sure how the DXY goes but the trump’s Election Day low should be tested, a small squeezing. The Euro moving down should be limited. The gold may benefit from a save heaven, but no guarantee here, in a condition where the negative interests is still in Euro.
Comment: Source: If Abe wins the market will be in a range, then an huge hike from the FRB.
Boj may pull back big companies deposit from foreign banks around the world.
Comment: We're waiting for Japan re-election result. Speculators should have closed trades or have balanced leverages already.
I've talked with my friend who is working in a Japan company. Recently their sales are boosting aggressively where's showing China and Asia economics are getting better in 2016-2017. The Yen's rising will output inflations with Japan global production chain, it has been delayed by 2 years. Abe or Yuriko Koike.
President Trump: "NAFTA ends it or re-negotiates it".
Comment: ( "Exit poll projects big win for Japanese PM Shinzo Abe"
"Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has won a big election victory according to exit polls that show him close to the two-thirds majority needed to revise Japan's constitution. As soon as polls closed in ...Yahoo Finance an hour ago." )
On 20th. Oct. 2017, "If Abe wins the market will be in a range, then an huge hike from the FRB." We have no bias but with the evolutions, remember? We don't bet on it and suggested a flat, right? It's not like a gamble for investor's point of view in forex market just a matter of the mathematics.
On November, President Trump will visit Asia, then the NAFTA which is key to the Japan global production chain will be re-negotiated. It's very strange that the North America trading deal is affected by Japan. Because in the globalization, Japanese has built the chain for investing out-broad to form cheaper supply of the automobile parts and so on. Many factories have been constructed out of Japan where is near the consumers and the markets.
It looks like that they have to pull back investments from foreign banks around the world soon. There might be a capital flow back into Japan and Yen to start a tightenning cycle. Also the breaking chain will lead to inflations or saying Japan will output inflations by it. Globalization is reversing, please remember it's just beginning. The China party is still against it by the way, always late... like predicted...
It's called "mei wen hua" in Chinese, very disappointed...
Comment: Yen is doing tiger tiger tiger... all good.
Comment: A new Boj President has been predicted today, like Grandma. Trump says Yellen is excellent, guess what, in a TV show the first name called usually has lost. Also PBOC Mr. Zhou retires soon.
Comment: According to Daily FX data, the net long holding positions at the lowest level since Oct. This's saying speculators will go long this pair desperately.
Comment: The longer it's managing to trade below the first human wave the more machines are coming to bite hook.
Comment: Ending diagonal... the human wave has been invalidated, a seven wave will be it.
Comment: May go higher from here. This is not a trading signal.
Comment: Looks like there's a reset in speculator sentiments on hourly chart, fish food, fish hook, fish fat, fish cook, time to serve soon...
Comment: Well done!
Comment: With the DXY stable, USDJPY may rise back with China stock market topping cycle. There’s Something looks like the same situation in 2015 may happen here.
Comment: Source: ( Be careful here, Trump is a Dollar devaluation, this may be against him in several months)
Comment: May have some pips higher before the hike in 2 weeks, we like to short this after the hike squeezing is over.
Comment: before huge fall there's still a little higher in UJ, again we'd like to short this after the hook...
fish food, fish hook, fish fat, fish cook, time to serve soon...
Comment: Still can go higher with stocks squeezing into carry trades...
Comment: Shall go higher with US dollar.
Merry Christmas and happy new year!
We wish investors have good luck!
Comment: Looking for longs from lower.
Comment: Long as predicted before. We would like to see more up side with Yen’s weakness. The interesting thing is gold maybe going higher to. This is helping Japan to achieve 2% inflation target in the future.
Comment: We're showing you guys some patterns you've never seen before.
Comment: Yen's getting a little stronger during NK. and Korea talking at 38 lines. It's a temporarily move for now. The Korea people are welcome NK to join Winter Olympic Game in 2018. The risk could be delayed by years, with Trump is ready for his secnond run.
We're looking for a rang from here, only long will be setup, incase a break out impulse to higher.
Comment: The BOJ is tightening under the NK problem covering......If BOJ is selling US10Y bonds price down with tightenning , then the US10Y yield should go higher, we have a 2.5% yield breaking higher today. This is saying USDJPY will be higher with yield higher, if the correlation is intact, but this could change at any time. We're watching it carefully now.
The more seriously is that China could be selling US10Y bonds too, for Renminbi's tightening. Two major US bonds buyer are both selling it... Goldman Sachs has predicted 3% yield before the end of 2018 in the US10Y yield.
Again, we suggest traders to long it from lower level, in case this pair makes an impulse to higher. If traders short this pair, we suggest you to setup orders based on harmonic patterns with smaller SL.
Comment: Game changing now... our Japanese analyst suggest mid term top is forming with BOJ tightening.
We suggest traders to short this pair only from range higher.
Comment: To be clear. US10Y yield higher (could be higher to 3.0% this year) only has one destiny, a new QE. Our analysis has shown 0.4% target before.
We don't work for China government and China banks. We don't trade news too.
Comment: This was published on 10th. July 2017......
Comment: We could see some higher before a new QE is beginning. Be careful here, market could crash ( US dollar impulse) during food/oil inflation switch into core one. Or saying they let market do it and then they play heroes......
Comment: According to a FXCM data:
The SSI is showing 4:1 net long on USDJPY, 4:1 net long on USDCAD, 6:1 net short on EURUSD, 6:1 net short on GBPUSD, 10:1 net short on AUDUSD, 10:1 net short on NZDUSD. We've never seen this extreme condition from US dollar for many years.
Technically, the price still can move before the extreme level turns. The extreme sentiment across the board is showing that we may have a trending market. All fibs on US dollar is failed now.
Fundamentally, the USA hike may have been paused but we have to wait for the Feb. 2018 to confirm it. Yellen is leaving, as predicted right?
From now on we only short this for intraday trading with small stop loss until the market is proving the trend is turned.
Comment: The BOJ is inverting it... We should look for core inflation breaking out.
Comment: Very hard to predict it now, BOJ is manipulating US10Y yield and UJ correlation. But be careful here, we may have a triangle on chart where has been shown on 26th. Sept. 2017.
Comment: We're having an historical period where the stock market squeezing is under regular controlled, very healthy BTW. Capital flow will be arranged into selected assets.
Comment: The triangle is beginning...... net long SSI
Comment: We've added short on this pair today.
Comment: We've taken partial profits in this pair and we've hedged a position. The core inflation has a 50% pull back between each hike. We need more of it, before the next hike.
This year the FRB may have to do it 5 times to feed the markets because too many people are coming to the feast as the central planning economic in the USA.
Comment: This pair has ideally reached inflection zone and SSI is keeping net long. The gap has been filled and the fall should come soon, in US10Y bonds yield. Position has been released from hedge.
Comment: An EW wave 4 triangle target is completing near 107.00 after today's NFP. There 6 meetings without Dec. 2018 hike, the Dec. hike is for a next year. So as predicted before, we may have 4 hikes during 6 meetings. Image that, the core inflation will soar...
Comment: We have a short term long here, one position has been hedged.
Comment: Following the US10Y yield to the top, until we release the short term long position.
Comment: A bad habit to catch falling knives.
The problem is that it's very hard to correct habits, like addicted.
Comment: UJ maybe reaching 110.27 before the FRB decision on the May. As long as the 110.50 is working, BOJ is keeping pressure on the NK, even if South and North are making peace doesn’t mean the USA and the North are friends. We should watch the Trump talking with North carefully. North nuclear weapons should be checked in years.
hi,i agree with you:)
A quick question. What is FRB?
Thank you for your likes! EURO is a time lagging one.
ice_holly01 Victor.Y.F
@Victor.Y.F, I got it.
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