Victor.Y.F

The final dropping should be pressed by DXY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
376 3 16
On chart. Be careful with EURUSD             it's launching now.
Comment: The weighted JPY doesn't reach it's purchase power yet. If BOJ persists on getting 2% inflation target then weighted JPY must reach 8.3 (7.1 neckline) in the future. This pair is leading gold for several months and we're now seeing it's pullback to neckline and falls again. Even if BOJ will do something in Oct. but just a bigger pullback. I think this pair should reach it's final target lower than 90 it could last 3 years from 2015 to 2018 for gold reaching it's top higher than 1920.
Comment: By the way, the Tokyo Olympic Games will take place in 2020 in Japan. I think the inflation will be topped in the end of 2018. BOJ will have permission to do forex market intervention by G8 group countries in Oct. 2018 for good. It will take 2 years for this pair reaches it's 143 target and the cycles will complete there.
Comment: If FRB insists 2% inflation target then this pair will trade lower to 126-106-86 head shoulder PO target.
Comment: BOJ and FRB are all insisting in 2% inflation targets. BOJ raised 10 years bunds interests and will keep it at 0 from previous negative interests. Not pretty one at monthly time frame which speculations don't often look at.
Comment: Trend is still working but after brexit the market does consolidation. Look US election result for more risks and Britain trade deal with EU. It's not over yet.
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Comment: If all markets are consolidating l'll change to daily scalping. Not too stubborn and be flexible.
Comment:
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Comment: Some explanation:
USA inflation is representing by DXY now as our researching. The second rates hike will prove the overheat phase of USA. In that phase, commercial currencies will rise agaist Usdollar especially the weighted JPY(JPY could be weak because of it's already strengthening for 24 months) and OZ dollar. The more hike the more inflation. FRB rising rates with 0.25% will push USA inflation up by 0.7% volume like last year and we have had 5 months DXY weakness after the hike.
That's why we are saying it's a self fulfilling machine. We've had too long deflation to realize that we're at the beginning of the inflation cycle.
Comment: We're testing the 106.21 where we mentioned on the updated chart above, the key level 10 months SMA. Don't be fooled. This is NOT turning the trend. We will see the tail of the renminbi's devaluation.
Comment: It's reversing look at this! OBV is showing us an ABYSS! Be carefull!
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Comment: Now we have confirmed that BOJ intervened bunds market from 2 years JPY bond and 10 years JPY bond. The key is the 2 years JPY bond. Forex rates is equal to the 2 years bond interests ratio. USDJPY = USD/JPY = US 2 years bond interests / JAPAN 2 years bond interests. We know the US 2 years bond interests are rising, JAPAN 2 years bond interests are following. But yesterday, BOJ interverned bunds market by suppress the 2 years bond interests. This means BOJ started forex intervention without G8 group country permission.
Comment: Update USDJPY
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Comment: "A 6.9 magnitude earthquake off eastern Japan near Fukushima prefecture has prompted a tsunami warning of possible 3m (10ft) waves. BBC reports."
The situation looks like the year of 2011, don't be fooled by the indexes, inflation, gold, stocks they're time lagging correlated in 2016. Even if in 2011 weighted JPY still tested back the high after the tragic accident that means there're more downside of indexes. If you look at stocks then you shloud follow the gold.
Comment: Update from UK quit sequence time window, this is very likely. In Oct. 2018 we will get 2% inflation target.
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Comment: Some explanations:
1, We can not get 2% inflation target now, the "a" wave on chart.
2, We begins "b" wave for pushing A shares and stocks new highs. Flat wave b could be higher than start of a wave, that's a new high or A shares testing 5178 even breaking 6124 (not likely but still possible) historical high.
3, Strong "c" 5 wave impulse will get us inflation target 2% or plus.
4, At "c" wave point BOJ will save the world by G8 industry countires permission of forex market intervention like the year 2011, a 7 years cycle completion.
5, Stocks indexes like SPX and DAX they're human infinity stones. Never short human civilization it's the dark side.
Comment: We have only about 1.7- 1.8% inflation in USA and we failed that target. From my point of view the reason is that FRB did it wrong by delaying hike.
We've ended overheat phase now (usally it's lasting 20 month of weighted JPY's strengthening and we have 24 months of it from end of 2014 ). If FRB rises rates in Dec. 2016 the inflation will reach about 2.1% very shortly and falls. I called it an "artificial inflation".
If FRB and BOJ don't give up, the resolution is a second pushing of stocks as "b" wave on chart but the time is very limited. Because we should have strong "C" wave down. After Brexit weighted JPY high Jul. 2016 to Oct. 2018 intervention it's only 27 months. That's too short for weighted JPY to form a second 20 months overheat phase(20 in 27 is too big ).
So we shall have a very volatile market to catch the time window. We've seen UJ run about 1500 pips from 99 that's the catching wave. I think in 2017 we will have the very quick rising of indexes from global stocks markets and we will top somewhere from the end of year 2017 to 2018, follows a very quick and a big crashing for reaching inflation target in Oct. 2018.
From EW wave technical analysis the weighted JPY first rising move is a 5 wave structure because the pull back must be a 3- 7- 11 waves so it's not complete, we must have a 535 zigzag from weighted JPY. As we have on the UJ chart is a 335 flat.
Comment: Brexit negotiation schedule reminders:
now to 2017/3 traditional new year and Christmas if FRB rises same as 2015/3
2017/3 triggers the 50th. law ( gold topped stocks rising rapidly) risk on
2017/7- 2018 stocks are topped and weighted JPY rises again risk off
2018/10 completes sequence ( BOJ intervention time window) new cycle begins
2019/3 UK quit takes effects another 7 years recovery risk on
Comment: look at those clues they're fitting nicely. Why UK has limited time? Think about BOJ.
Comment: A shares is falling today. Global stocks are following the risk off mode soon. The "b" wave could have been completed without forming a flat. From time perspective this icould be catching the "c" wave sequence.
Comment: A year ago, We saw it.
DAX and Euro
Comment: We would like to update this after FRB decision.
If the "b" wave is compelted with 2 conditions fulfilled, 1, renminbi is NO easing from PBOC, this condition will keep A shares lower and weighted JPY second rising as the real overheat 20 months phase. 2, FRB is changing back inflation and gold negative correlation.
From 2014/12 to 2016/8, there're 20 months FRB has been inverting the inflation and gold positive correlation causing a seriously problem of stagflation mixed with overheat. Good thing is that FRB had enough profits to hike in Dec. 2015 but the bad thing is that when inflation fails the gold is rising to against DXY rising. ( A guess: Now in Dec. 2016 FRB has NO enough profits to hike from Brexit stop loss( 100% stopped out) and Trump stop loss ( partially stopped out about 50% of first order) And also it's a market cheating way too. It has to be changed back now.( Trump will find out it soon after he puts someone in the board) )
I suppose that in a normal overheat phase FRB should be longing gold from 2014/10 and it's very easy to make profits from inflation rising and that money will be handed to US treasury for paying USD interests hike.
We counts down back 20 months "real" overheat from 2018/12. 2017/12+12 minus 20 equals to 2017/4. That means in some where next year in Spring or Summer season, FRB will earn enough money to do the second hike and that will be a huge hike.
We're looking for FRB changing back the correlation in Dec. 2016. From then FRB will turn to long gold for performing the overheat phase as stop the cheating way. So in 2016 they had about 75% profits and next year they will have about 175% profits to hike or more profits that depends how high the inflation will go.
The next hike will be huge and NO hike in Dec.2016. We're saying "it's paused".
Comment: To be clear FRB still shorting gold without taking profits but they have to make it down to traget 1100 for 100% profits to hike in Dec. 2016. That's very hard now. Look at UJ and EU they look like not agree with FRB soon.
If FRB can make it lower to 1100 then they can still hike but only 0.25%. That's a failure too. Because the market has been priced in already.
Comment: Most important negotiation US- China trade deal in Spring 2017.
USDCNY 7.0 could go back to 6.0. A shares, weighted JPY and Japan inflation.
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Comment: Trump is good at business but he says Japan can't get advantage from USA. He doesn't know YEN's rising has a collateral damage with stocks and risk on sentiments. Now we cloud have a pull back before BOJ steps in. BOJ still has 1.8% inflation target to reach in 2017. So this's a retrace for now, it could become trend change if BOJ follows with the inflation and not to push it. Traders can play it for a while.
Comment: Key fighting at 115.624 also DXY 100.81. VIX is too low be careful!
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Comment: A triangle breaking out, under 112.00 level target 106.379 as a 0.618 retracement.
Comment: We have BOJ key decision at 27th. April 2017, my new simulations suggest expanding QE and keeping interests at zero point ( negative before). The market could surprise you guys, be careful, the France election.
Comment: Looks like BOJ has some lines to protect at 110 handle. From long term point of view weighted JPY have no fundemental condition for keeping strong but only risk off mode. I suggest you guys ignoring the correlation between USDJPY and XAUUSD now. Because XAUJPY is moving fast from the inflation going higher in Japan. Only if the BOJ decides to follow the inflation would cause the USDJPY is correlated with XAUUSD. It's very complicated if you're unfamiliar to the correlations. I would like to say USDJPY i's range higher or even weaker from DXY's pullback. It depends which one is weaker. Basically BOJ will follow President Trump's direction but not from FRB in the future. FRB is losing the US Dollar's control.
Comment: The daily chart is very commercial, I seldom show it but this is an exception. Just for your information, the FXCM SSI is now 2.3 net long of USDJPY, the XAUUSD is -2 net short of lots and -1.3 net short of positions.
Scalpers should always have good habits to check up the SSI before entries. The market mostly time is against speculators sentiment, few times speculators are right. If you check up it and keep using the same account management, you should have been a very stable trader for long term profits already.
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Comment: Many traders have habits to trade counter trend if the trend pulls back, but I suggest flat because the market doesn't have to reach the daily inflection zone. In this case UJ pulled back to hourly inflection zone and broke 110 handle. So now what?
Now all scalpers crying for BOJ intervention, but the SSI is heavily net long from FXCM data, the UJ is 2.9, others are bigger than 3.0 from Yen crosses. Even if BOJ want to do it but the costs will be huge. Also Yen now is very politic, BOJ can't act without Prime Ministers Anbei's permission and President Trump's permission.
I hope you guys are on the right side of the market...
Comment: BOJ meeting is at the 27th. April, the Yen may act next week for saving stock markets from crashing. Japan treasury minister delivered a message in G20 meeting this week. The France election needs Yen's weakness too. I suggest Yen carry trades but not UJ because the core inflation should keep going higher slowly in that circumstance we should have DXY and Yen going weak together. UJ could be flat and slowly rise for several months.
Risk on is coming back soon. The global stocks markets are still going higher with the core inflation till next summer in 2018.
Comment: This's an alert!
I suggest traders be prepared for this condition where NO circulation will be provided for banks and for brokers to execute trader's stop losses.
Consider an potential EURO huge impulse to 1.20 will drag down DXY and will drag down gold from SNB's weakening CHF possibility is becoming higher. The second black swan could happen but inverted the Jan. 2015 sequence.
USDJPY flat in this simulation.
Comment: We have had 10 months SMA closed above in the April. Candle analysis suggest long from daily pull backs. This a flat or a small long will be decided by US dollar's weakness.
Comment: This is a gift... short from top ok? Put stop loss as same as your target.
Can't wait to watch the movie "Guardians of The Galaxy" any more... in hours...
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Comment: Now traders could move your stop loss to the break even or take partial profits from entries if your have multiple orders. Let the market do the rest, ok?
A very good movie as expected the "Guardians of The Galaxy 2". Here comes the joke. We've seen In Star Wars 7 Kylo Ren killed one father, in Guardians of The Galaxy 2 Peter Quill killed two fathers, guess there're more fathers to kill... Lol...
Comment: Not high enough to draw your attentions? Now crows are coming...
Structure is clear here. Halted at once...
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Comment: In case you're pattern guys...
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Comment: Now we take profits and wait.
Comment: The weighted Japanese YEN intervention odd is increasing to 50% in June after an terrorism attack happened in Manchester yesterday. We don't trade those incidents because of moral rules, in fact, the investment set long before those things happen where based on technical chart combined with fundamental statistics.
Now we pray for U.K and be ready for against terrorism like always. My anti terrorism attitude is very clearly showed on TV.
Comment: The market sentiments show us that there're 35% speculators holding shorts Vs. 65% speculators holding longs or saying it could still going lower. We made a new low yesterday BTW.
On 16th. June the BOJ may do a intervention for an excuse of pushing Japan inflation target, in fact they're helping the indexes. Sneak attcking like always. Lol
Comment: Boring again today's BOJ...
Comment: I hope it's not too late for reminding you guys... the weighted Yen is following the falling inflation to the bottom.
This's not a signal...
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Comment: Today the BOJ announces an unlimited purchasing of Japan Government 10Y Bonds for keeping its yield at 0.11% level. BOJ also is expanding 5-10Y Bonds purchasing from 450B Yen to 500B Yen. Those actions is supporting the prediction of BOJ intervention in summer. Yes they're doing it again.
This is good for indexes especially for A shares bad for metals, the silver is crashing today.
Comment: A reminder, guys do not short any of Yen pairs! we may have a triangle breaking out.
Comment: Again, please do not short Yen pairs, from weighted YEN point of view we have breached the 16th. Dec. 2016 low where the second US dollar's hiking. This may become into a triangle burst after pull back to 113 level. The UJ most likely will go to 115 or higher measuring by a triangle target.
Comment: To be clear, this is not a signal service.
Source form Dailyfx Asia :
The BOJ plans to purchase 330B 3-5Y Yen Japan Government Bonds, plans to purchase 450B 5-10Y Yen Japan Goverment Bonds.
Comment: From A shares are going to a new high prediction, consider the DXY weakness, AU target, AJ target, calculating an UJ first target 107, an UJ second target 103. The forex market could have changed some how but traders are ignoring it.
I will update this publishing soon, a pure technical chart with both directions.
Comment:
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Comment: Now we should have the weighted Yen weakness but in order to keep the XAUUSD flat the US dollar is following the Yen. There're more opportunities in commercial currency Vs. JPY but the UJ should rise slowly. This's waiting for A shares topping.
Comment: If the XAU keeps going higher and the UJ correlation is good, we should achieve 107 the first target then we're looking for 103 the second target as predicted on 15th July.
A quick question. What is FRB?
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Thank you for your likes! EURO is a time lagging one.
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@Victor.Y.F, I got it.
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