NamMinh
Long

EURUSD_Forecast_2015

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
214 0 2
Some analytical-historic data about EUR vs USD

At the end of 1999 EUR lost its strength vs USD and felt down below the level of parity (1-1) vs USD (see the price range in the green rectangle from the periods from the end of 1999-the beginning of 2002             ). It found at that time a strong support level at around 0.8200; it took then two years long to break up the parity of 1-1 versus USD and pushed forward strongly reaching the highest level of its price range up to now at around 1.6000 in the second quarter of 2008 and it finally lost its strength slowly in the next further of almost 12 months. A upward momentum of EUR was to see in the first quarter of 2009, anyway the markets behaved quite carefully during that time and a larger liquid volume of the weekly candles became smaller and smaller and EUR vs USD reached the stronger resistance area at the level of around 1.5000 in the end of 2009, but still not touched our orange trend line support level at around 1.1410 at that time.

In 2014, European Economic situations have been facing some difficult issues as well as economic recession and the ECB has been involving in this matters by releasing QE to support the economy; this led to the break down our mentioned orange support trend line at the level of around 1.2850.
Following with some issues of Grexit recently and the markets have pushing the EUR vs USD down to the level of around 1.0430 and it finds a support there up to now.

A minor upward trend for EUR vs USD is now to see, but it can still not break up the psychological resistance level of around 1.1450. The last price action of the weekly candle shows us no further higher highs, but yet a lower lows. The situation for EUR vs USD is now in a dilemma, for our blue support trend line is still support EUR somehow at the support level at 1.0790.

Two scenarios for EUR vs USD can be happened as following:

1. The support level at 1.0790 will be broken and a next support levels will be found firstly at around 1.0470 and in the worst case a parity could be reached, for the Fed will probably hike the rate at the end of this year.

2. The support level at 1.0790 will be held and a minor momentum will be given to push EUR to the next highs at 1.1450; at that level we can say that a triple tops will be built for further consideration( because hiking rate of Fed is not really clear for the markets and now the year of 2015 is already in the second half part).

Our recommendation is to go long with EUR versus USD, if all the mentioned support levels are well supported.

Trade well!

Makkaba team

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