EURUSD Pending Short

My EURUSD Pending short is still in play.

The reason is because regardless of all the risk on/off sentiment, USD remains to be the strongest currency atm.

1. U.S Equities at all time high

U.S is the place to buy stocks for global investors, and that means they have to exchange money into USD.

2. U.S still the safest place.

With the current trade war between U.S and China, the threat from North Korea, the Brexit, the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Turkey), and so on and so forth, which country will you trust you money in?

Yes, USD is still the king!

3. FED

Fed cut the IR, yes they did - but so did every other major countries, and once again, USD IR is still the second highest under CAD and the reason CAD is still doing well is because Canadian economy is directly benefited by the U.S economy.


Finally, you can actually buy USD against any other currencies but I chose EUR for the reasons:

• EUR/USD is the #1 go-to currency pair to buy/sell USD.
  
  
• The European economy is weak comparing to U.S
  
  
• There are way more risk factors in sentiment in Europe than U.S - basically, there are simply too many countries with too much uncertainties in EU
  
  
• ECB is dovish compare to FED
  

Finally, U.S equities are way stronger than European equities, and hence, the hot global money is only going into USD.

Comment:

We had a very weak USD today due to weak equity markets across the board, and sentiment over U.S and China over the HK legislation, and the disappointed U.S ISM Manufacturing data.

I personally still think USD is a much stronger currency than EUR because
-FED is more hakiwsh than ECB
-U.S equities are stronger than European markets
-USD IR is higher than EUR

and finally, USD is still a great safe heaven currency to buy.

However, we might still get stopped out in next few days due to the ECB comments + NFP

all these events could cause small timeframe movement and noises which can stop out EURUSD

If you're NOT in any of these trade, it's best to STAY OUT for this weak after all the events are done - and then you can place a swing trade in a much stable condition.

Trade closed: stop reached:

We got stopped out today because of a strong RISK ON market which fundamentally should be bearish for EUR and more bullish for USD, especially the catalyst was form better progress in U.S and China trade deal - nevertheless, we still got stopped out during the choppy movement!

Although trading fundamentally will give us a great bigger direction, but we are still under the risk of technical movement and sometimes we might be right in the general direction but still get stopped out, therefore, where to put your entry, sl and target is purely subjective and should go around your own psychology and comfort level.