The-Hoss

EURUSD Short Bias - High Reward / Low Risk Trade Idea

Short
OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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15
This is my EURUSD Short Bias Idea (use at your own discretion :)
This Analysis is also applied to the NZDUSD and AUDUSD Pairs as well. All feedback is greatly apprecited!

In this Analysis I will explain to you my perspective of my bias and why I decided to go with the Short Position. This Bias is intended as a Longer Term Swing Position that is predicted to take anywhere from a few days to 2 Weeks with the Use of the 4H and 1H TimeFrame

  • Confluence 1 = Price has recently, within past two weeks, hit a level of Major Monthly Resistance, only to begin Falling. It created two Bearish Reversal Patterns in the process, being the Double Top Reversal Pattern and the Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern.

    Confluence 2 = Notice the Price didn't come all the way up to the very top of to the Major Monthly Resistance Level and instead decided to Retest the Previous Support it had broken, which is a Bearish Indication.

    Confluence 3 = In my personal opinion, Price has just broken the support floor of the Head & shoulders Pattern and Retested it as a newfound resistance and is beginning to fall.

    Confluence 4 = There is Pinning at the very tip of the Head & Shoulders Structure as well as Bearish Divergence due to the increasing price creating higher highs while the Stock Indicator was starting to show lower highs, that was created throughout the whole way up.

    Confluence 5 = I personally use other certain pairs that are against the USD such as the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD to validate my bias via correlation, which they both have. I chose both these pairs due to the similar correlation of structure amongst them. This is due to the AUDUSD being too overbought and the weakly released data of a higher Significantly Higher Unemployment Rate, indicating a highly potential, weaker Australian Dollar. As well, New Zealand had a poorly released GDP yesterday as of June 17th, 2020 too.

Overall, with this being said, I expect these pairs to fall, but the EURUSD Pair, I would expect to fall down to at at least the 1.11417 Area to take my first Profits, this is in somewhat of Correlation with the Fibonacci as well as it was a important area of previous resistance. The Final Take Profit would be within the range of 1.11000-1.10000. I leave a range to your discretion because personally, I could see the second TP being at 1.10347, but I always generally take profits before Major Areas as such, just to be safe.

Thanks for checking out my Idea, Hope you enjoyed! (Also, if anyone ever wants to become friends and trade together and collaborate on Ideas together, hit me up!)

Stay Boss everyone
Hoss

Comments

I believe this may go up next week really oversold. waiting for a clear confirmation for a sell so i think next week should be a good risk to reward
Reply
Your analysis is sensational!
I also have the same reasoning as yours, double top and SHS formation.
I believe that in 0.5% of fibonacci we will arrive soon if the news helps. (where I will start to close some operations partially to make some profits)
Tomorrow, with Powel's speech, the price may fluctuate considerably. We look forward and congratulations on the analysis.
Reply
The-Hoss rodolfomhn
@rodolfomhn, Very Much Appreciated Man! Definitely looking forward to arising potential for tomorrow, and iActually appreciate the aspect of you seeing my perceptive of reasoning, I personally find most people dont really understamd but Im glad your with me
Reply
yupp it just broke shs
Reply
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