Some ideas for next trading week

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
318 3 1
Fundamental Analysis:

Next week is a very important week. The economic picture of EZ and US will be clearer after Economic data is released.

Before considering data for next week, I review what was happen in EZ and US last week.

+ GDP : Bearish
+ CPI             Core: Bearish
--->; Bearish for EUR

+ Fed president nominate Yellen wanted to keep QE to support US economy.

Yellen Speech governed EURUSD             move and dragged this pair from 1.335 to 1.345 despite of bad news from EZ.

Now, I consider this week:

+ ZEW Survey on Tuesday
+Markit PMI on Thursday

+ FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
+ CPI            
+Retail Sales

The main focus absolutely is FOMC Minutes where I search clues for Taper. This could be a very important Meeting, taper or no taper could be decided in this meeting. If FED chooses no taper solution, ending QE3 has to transfer to March or April next year. I ignore data from EZ because most traders and investors will pay attention towards FOMC Minutes, information from EZ dont have much value and important to guide market, we can see that last week : Week economy data but EUR is bullish .

EURUSD             increases or not will depend on FOMC Minutes and Bernanke speech. I have two choices:
- Taper: Bullish for USD
- No taper: Bearish for USD.

I bet on No taper even small taper. I think that FED will consider this after Yellen offically is appointed and hold FED.
Yellen said that : she didnt want to end QE now, she wants to keep QE until US economy recovers stronger.

Thus, EURUSD             , in my opinion, will rally next week. And where it reaches, I have to see Technical Analysis .

Technical Analysis:

In fact, I don't see any Long signal in this time. Ichimoku pattern, SMA , Indicator , Bolliger Band, Candle Sticks, don't provide Long Signal now. It's hard to predict if Price doesn't have valuable information.

I just see:
+ Kijun Sen coincides 50% Fib retracement level.
+ SMA 50 coincides Long Term Price Channel and 38% Fib retracement level.

If price breaks 38% Fib level, it will move to next target 50 % Fib level.

+ Ascending Triangle Pattern.

Price will try to break this pattern.

In conclusion, I bet on bullish trend for EURUSD             .

Target : 1.358

If market has too bad information for USD, the target will be :1.362 ,61.8 Fib level.

Stop loss:1.332
Confirm E/U rallies to 1.3557. Very near 1.358 as I said.
thank you for thoughtful analysis.
thank you for the insightful analysis.
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