Next week is a very important week. The economic picture of EZ and US will be clearer after Economic data is released.
Before considering data for next week, I review what was happen in EZ and US last week.
+ GDP :
+ CPI Core:
--->; for EUR
+ Fed president nominate Yellen wanted to keep to support US economy.
Yellen Speech governed EURUSD move and dragged this pair from 1.335 to 1.345 despite of bad news from EZ.
Now, I consider this week:
+ ZEW Survey on Tuesday
+Markit PMI on Thursday
+ FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
The main focus absolutely is FOMC Minutes where I search clues for Taper. This could be a very important Meeting, taper or no taper could be decided in this meeting. If FED chooses no taper solution, ending QE3 has to transfer to March or April next year. I ignore data from EZ because most traders and investors will pay attention towards FOMC Minutes, information from EZ dont have much value and important to guide market, we can see that last week : Week economy data but EUR is .
EURUSD increases or not will depend on FOMC Minutes and Bernanke speech. I have two choices:
- Taper: for USD
- No taper: for USD.
I bet on No taper even small taper. I think that FED will consider this after Yellen offically is appointed and hold FED.
Yellen said that : she didnt want to end now, she wants to keep until US economy recovers stronger.
Thus, EURUSD , in my opinion, will rally next week. And where it reaches, I have to see .
In fact, I don't see any Long signal in this time. pattern, , Indicator , Bolliger Band, Candle Sticks, don't provide Long Signal now. It's hard to predict if Price doesn't have valuable information.
I just see:
+ Kijun Sen coincides 50% Fib retracement level.
+ 50 coincides Long Term and 38% Fib retracement level.
If price breaks 38% Fib level, it will move to next target 50 % Fib level.
Price will try to break this pattern.
In conclusion, I bet on for EURUSD .
Target : 1.358
If market has too bad information for USD, the target will be :1.362 ,61.8 Fib level.