FXTM

EUR/USD H4 - Possible new downtrend beginning

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The EUR/USD currency pair, on the H4 time-frame, began an uptrend in the beginning of March that lasted until the 20th of March. Sellers then found the price attractive and started countering buying pressure. Supply overwhelmed demand and the market broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages with the Momentum Oscillator cutting through the zero baseline, both confirming a possible technical reversal in the market. This was further strengthened by a cross of the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages, called a Death Cross, as well as a Strong Bearish Candle that formed after the bulls briefly tried to come back into the market, indicating that buying power was not able to sustain the upward momentum.

A possible critical support level formed when a low was recorded at 1.12737 on the 22nd of March. The bulls temporarily managed to push prices higher and a lower top was registered at 1.13331.

If the price of EUR/USD breaks through the critical support level at 1.12737, three possible price targets may be estimated from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the bottom of the possible reversal at 1.12737 and dragging it to the top of the pullback at 1.13331, the following targets may be calculated. The first target can be anticipated at 1.12370 (161 %). The second price target can be projected at 1.11776 (261.8%) and the third and final target may be expected at 1.10815 (423.6%).

As long as sellers maintain a negative sentiment and supply overcomes demand, the outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair on the H4 time-frame will remain bearish.

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