finitemonk

Fed Rate Decision : Wrong Footing the Markets?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
161 0 1
The weeks recent behaviour seems anticipatory of no rate rise. The pattern on this pair, a triple three which appears very near completion and subsequent downward move suggests there may be something between a very strong indication to an actual rise, possibly raising rates by a 'test market reaction' 0.05 to 0.3.

Also taking into account indices which seem on the last leg. Any rate rise may rapidly attract capital out of stocks to fixed income, becoming a self-fulfilling (and perpetuating) flight to safety.

Only reserve I have technically is PMs which I would prefer to go a bit higher, say gold             up to 1231 ideally to make a more definite small c wave of (b). Another option more bullish seems less likely but this current 5 wave triangle could be a leading diagonal of something more meaningful / substantial up. First we would need a correction tho'.

Double whammy tomorrow : US GDP 12:30, 18:00 Fed Rate Decision (times: GMT)
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