finitemonk

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Markets Allocation
64 % forex 7 % indices 4 % commodities 26 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USDJPY 31% | 53 EURUSD 22% | 38 SPX 9% | 16 XAUUSD 6% | 11
finitemonk finitemonk 1/EURCHF+1/GBPCHF+1/AUDCHF+1/NZDCHF+1/USDCHF+1/CADCHF, D,
1/EURCHF+1/GBPCHF+1/AUDCHF+1/NZDCHF+1/USDCHF+1/CADCHF: Swiss Franc, forming bullish triangle
Swiss Franc, forming bullish triangle

Methodology, as previous chart blurb (link below). Also rationale for omitting Yen, as per previous. The price movements do appear to be contracting in a sideways fashion, zig by zag. Overall the Swiss Franc is in a long term gently upward sloping channel, hence I've put the C wave up on the top. Not quite sure as to wave D, will become apparent, may strengthen ...

finitemonk finitemonk GBPUSD, M,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD, Elliott Waves and North Sea Oil.
243 0 8
GBPUSD, M
GBPUSD, Elliott Waves and North Sea Oil.

Sterling has a long history of depreciation against the US Dollar. … 1940: “The pound sterling... declining from US$4.86 to US$4.06”. (A History of the Canadian Dollar, Bank of Canada) Using charts from here http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php, the price movements can be approximated back to 1968. Prior to the drop in the late 60s it is represented ...

finitemonk finitemonk AUDUSD, 120,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD/SPX Correlation & Wave Count
90 0 3
AUDUSD, 120
AUDUSD/SPX Correlation & Wave Count

I'm not so much interested in the tight correlation, what interests me is the apparent same minor wave count. As suggested previous chart on the AUDUSD it had formed a wave e and then it did a lovely (and very profitable) 400+ pip drop off taking out the low back in September last year. But after what I've labelled as wave (iv), ending 0.70487, of the drop it ...

finitemonk finitemonk AUDJPY, D,
AUDJPY: AUDJPY, Correction Near Completion
97 0 3
AUDJPY, D
AUDJPY, Correction Near Completion

AUDJPY, 8th January 2016 As per chart. Seems to be just about to complete or has completed a five wave ending diagonal form descent, as a wave C of the larger corrective structure. The wave A completed a five wave descent back in August '13, a B wave, then a C wave with each descending wave a zigzag. I'm sort of expecting it to drop just a wee bit more in line ...

finitemonk finitemonk GBPUSD, D,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD - Adjusted Wave Count
162 2 5
GBPUSD, D
GBPUSD - Adjusted Wave Count

GBPUSD, 3rd January 2016 Last post on this pair I suggested it was near completion - 'almost' … turned out to be a bit more 'almost' than I thought. I also mentioned I wasn’t wholly happy about the count – one thing I wasn't really sure of is that what I had labelled (i), appeared to be only one wave, not a clear 3 part a-b-c. I've changed the main wave count ...

finitemonk finitemonk AUDUSD, 120,
AUDUSD: Using Fibonacci to Count Waves
176 0 5
AUDUSD, 120
Using Fibonacci to Count Waves

AUDUSD, 1st January 2016 Over the past couple of months I've been teaching myself to count waves using Fibonacci & realizing the importance of this. (And some of my previously published counts, say a year or two ago, are really quite off in the detail if not also overall - hehe). Here goes. Going up from the low, 17th December at 0.70957, there's a small wave i ...

finitemonk finitemonk SPX500, 240,
SPX500: Into Wave V
347 2 4
SPX500, 240
Into Wave V

I just thought I'd put this wave count out before the FOMC in 2.5 hrs or so ... I feel this is most likely correct (currently) I like the way of wave iv, circled, wave (w) and (y) are pretty much of identical length, forming a flat. There are similarities to the DJIA, 1975, July 14th - Oct. 1st. Not because I was there trading or anything, far too young, he-he, ...

finitemonk finitemonk GBPUSD, 360,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD - Wave Complete?
657 11 8
GBPUSD, 360
GBPUSD - Wave Complete?

Or almost? The pair missed touching the 0.7639 retrace level by a whisker Wednesday … resonable level to clock a reversal. The wave count I'm not 100% happy with but the very best I can do currently to make structural sense of a bit of a mess. Scenario 1: the pair tucks itself down into a small ending diagonal pre FOMC, maybe touching down on 1.483, ...

finitemonk finitemonk GBPUSD+GBPCAD+GBPNZD+GBPAUD+GBPCHF+1/EURGBP, W,
GBPUSD+GBPCAD+GBPNZD+GBPAUD+GBPCHF+1/EURGBP: A Look at Sterling
A Look at Sterling

Validity of Method: Do the same thing with the US Dollar - a near replication of the Dollar Index Leaving out the Yen: My perception of the Yen is a) it's a bit out on it's own among the commonly traded currencies and b) CB intervention / policy lends a possibly unhelpful distortion. (Leaving out say the Swedish Kroner for the same reason is a good idea. ) ...

finitemonk finitemonk SPX500, 240,
SPX500: Well Enough Defined Channel
80 1 4
SPX500, 240
Well Enough Defined Channel

The recent "China" drop is almost exactly the same as the 2011 correction, which suggests they are related, as possibly wave 2 & 4 (?) ... If so, then there should be some relationship between this current wave and the waves preceding the 2011 drop. (That depends on the interpretation of those, of course). It is possible then that there is quite a lot more ...

finitemonk finitemonk SPX500, 120,
SPX500: Wave (iv) almost complete
170 0 2
SPX500, 120
Wave (iv) almost complete

There might be a few ways to label this but I think it's just completing a C wave dropping down from 2103. I'm expecting it to maybe drop to about 2064 where there is some previous minor resistance. (The fib levels marked are from wave (i) and since the 0.618 sat on the 2070 subdivide .. there is a way of labeling wave (iii) as all wave i-iii of (iii), making ...

finitemonk finitemonk XAUUSD, W,
XAUUSD: The End is Nigh?
138 0 2
XAUUSD, W
The End is Nigh?

About 6 months ago I published a chart trying to make sense of the upward a-b-c wave ... At that point in latest April this year ... I mentioned it would hit "heavy resistance at 1231 or thereabouts" marking 1232.73 on the chart, which it did ... "It may try to take out the multiyear lows, and have a crack at the upper 1000's." Which it also did. I marked out ...

finitemonk finitemonk EURJPY, 240, Long ,
EURJPY: EURJPY: Time for Long?
35 0 5
EURJPY, 240 Long
EURJPY: Time for Long?

It would appear there is an wave upward due, a C wave to form a zig-zag,because by the count shown there are 3 waves up from 126, back in April, three waves sideways but slightly down in a channel so there should be 5 or maybe 3 waves up. From observation B waves are frequently the ones which themselves contain triangles. Is the BoJ going to announce an increase ...

finitemonk finitemonk EURUSD, 240, Long ,
EURUSD: Pre-FOMC: Waves and Numbers
74 1 3
EURUSD, 240 Long
Pre-FOMC: Waves and Numbers

I know some Elliott Wave analysts say the Euro is going lower against the USD, and it's in a full motive wave downward ... it may be so. Such are probabilities. But to me it looks proportionally wrong. Plus I'm looking at the now 3 x '3-3-5' wave subdivision and thinking ok, it's shot a bit lower than one may have liked to make it perfect ... But the line I've ...

finitemonk finitemonk EURUSD, 120,
EURUSD: EURUSD Wave Count
137 0 0
EURUSD, 120
EURUSD Wave Count

This pair just at a point where the 50ma is moving above the 200ma on daily chart, the euro itself appears to be consolidating to move higher, certainly on most x's This is how I had the wave count 24 hours ago, still intact (I was a bit put off by the wee triangle, which looked bearish) but then reading the rsi, with a continuation pattern, oppositely would give ...

finitemonk finitemonk EURUSD, D,
EURUSD: Ending Diagonal?
123 1 2
EURUSD, D
Ending Diagonal?

It was all looking quite lovely until after the drop I've labelled (a) of 1, and then it wasn't. The neat thing about it following now into a wave 3 of what could become an ending diagonal is that wave 3 ends in equal time to wave 1 on the next FOMC. The crucial September. What do have is an abc followed by what seems to be an abc, and the only occurrence of ...

finitemonk finitemonk EURUSD, D,
EURUSD: Strange Pressures
318 0 6
EURUSD, D
Strange Pressures

From a technical perspective: 1. the pair hasn't yet busted the upside of the down channel 2. I'm watching the 0.382 retracement level and wondering if that marks a wave (e). It does sit at the previous wave (iv) level at 1.139 ... 3. which makes with the recent minor wave counts all the right noises for a continuation pattern. 4. Having said that I feel there is ...

finitemonk finitemonk JY1!, W,
JY1!: Yen: Commodities Correlation
18 0 0
JY1!, W
Yen: Commodities Correlation

JY1! (red) and the DJ UBS Commodities Index (blue). Do commodities only pick up if and when the Yen starts to revalue? What effect the EURJPY on commodity prices? Does a bund assisted revaluation of the Euro somewhat mute "price stability"?

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