Look at 1Month chart since ERM introduction (IDC chart). Prior bear market stopped at 38.2% correction from 1.45 in 1995. Then we saw an accumulation phase and a bull market to 1.60.
We're ranging now around that same fib level since jan 2015, the 38.2% correction from 1.60 high in july 2008.If you only look at € data without ERM, you might think bottom is at 0.80. But for me, it's already ranging far too long around 1.10 for it to continue the bear trend. But hey, just my educated guess.