It seems price wants to break above the August high. It will be a marginal breakout but price will not rally after this breakout and there will be no follow through above 1.17. We are just too late in this intermediate cycle.
Next week lit of news: Draghi talks on Monday , NFP on FGriday. Who knows which will trigger the dollar rally.
Draghi wants to weaken the Euro so on Monday he will talk against it. If the NFP brings a good number in hope of the summer rate hike the dollar will start to rally.
So I would enter into the short position around 1.1720 or if we break down the at 1.13... These are low risk trades now.
If you enter now we might have a pop up to 1.17 and you have to survive it. But I would not enter into a long position now. The decline could start any day now.
Let's see what next week brings!
And notice the divergences between price and MACD + RSI.
The reversal will be starting from there the latest.
DXY had broken the 2015 August low but EurUsd is not breaking the 2015 August high. It's possible thaht Eur usd will turn down without tagging the upper trendline.
I think DXY is leading now...
1 or 2 days more.
We might tag 1.17
If Draghi will not weaken the Euro then we have the false breakdown in the US Dollar Index and EurUsd will rally up to 1.17...
This week both will turn.