EurUsd - The 4th Daily cycle

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
792 6 26
Though I still think that the dollar rally is very close I would wait now with entering the short position.
It seems price wants to break above the August high. It will be a marginal breakout but price will not rally after this breakout and there will be no follow through above 1.17. We are just too late in this intermediate cycle.

Next week lit of news: Draghi talks on Monday , NFP on FGriday. Who knows which will trigger the dollar rally.
Draghi wants to weaken the Euro             so on Monday he will talk against it. If the NFP brings a good number in hope of the summer rate hike the dollar will start to rally.

So I would enter into the short position around 1.1720 or if we break down the trendline at 1.13... These are low risk trades now.
If you enter now we might have a pop up to 1.17 and you have to survive it. But I would not enter into a long position now. The decline could start any day now.

Let's see what next week brings!

Comment: MACD is not crossing down it's crossing up...
And notice the divergences between price and MACD + RSI.
Comment: 100-150 pips and we are at the upper trendline.
The reversal will be starting from there the latest.

DXY had broken the 2015 August low but EurUsd is not breaking the 2015 August high. It's possible thaht Eur usd will turn down without tagging the upper trendline.
I think DXY is leading now...
Comment: Waiting for the dollar to finish the move in the panic selling stage.
1 or 2 days more.
We might tag 1.17
Waiting for the dollar to finish the move in the panic selling stage.
1 or 2 days more.
We might tag 1.17
EURUSD is around 1.145,
so you think it will rise till 1.17 and then goes down?
and you think MONDAY Draghi speech will weakness EUR?
chartwatchers MohammadrezaMoeeni
Actually I'm watching now the DXY (US dollar index) it is testing the bottom of the range. We might print a false breakdown from the range but it will not have a serious decline below the range.
chartwatchers MohammadrezaMoeeni
So EurUsd will depend on the US dollar index. If we start to rally up from here in the US dollar index without a false breakdown EurUsd will start the decline on Monday - maybe after Draghi'S speech.
If Draghi will not weaken the Euro then we have the false breakdown in the US Dollar Index and EurUsd will rally up to 1.17...
This week both will turn.
MohammadrezaMoeeni chartwatchers
thanks alot.
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