Kumowizard

EUR weekly complex before Brexit vote.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
207 0 11
There are quite some guessing how the Euro             will behave after Brexit vote. Will it start to collapse immediately if UK votes leave? Would it rally in case they vote remain? Which cross would be the best trade?

What we can do now is to check the biases.

EURUSD:
- Ichimoku neutral.
- Heikin-Ashi has slight bearish bias
- key area for bulls to hold is 1,1115-1,1150. Below Kijun and minor uptrend line we'd see massive selling. This can happen in two cases: Brexit brings risk off to Euro             , or FED keeps hawkish stance.

EURGBP:
- No surprise here. Bullish . Even if EUR gets hit in case of Brexit, GBP yould suffer more.

EURNOK:
- Ichimoku neutral: price moves kind of sideaway at a thick Kumo, below Kijun Sen.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias this week, but no strong momentum
-We have two stories here: Inflation in Norway started to increase! That's what 2 years of ccy weakness caused. The other effect is obviously the price of Brent Oil             .

EURSEK:
- Neutral, consolidation at a flat Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish .
- Rate is negative here, Sweden's economy is doing relatively OK, but they have a huge household debt surge and obviously a real estate bubble.

EURAUD:
- Neutral at thin Kumo. No bullish follow through above Kumo cloud.
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish .
- There is still some interest in AUD (higher positive carry compared to other pairs)
- Can be an alternative to EUR, but Australian economy is heavily dependent on China (Asia) and commodity prices too.

EURCAD:
- Neutral in the cloud, but looking at forward Kumo, Ichimoku has some bearish bias.
- Lower key supp/res is 1,4230-1,4300 zone, upper res. is ard 1,50+
- If I had to chose, I'd keep bearish position on EURCAD             , but again, Canada is dependent on WTI. Those who'd short it defenately need a confirmation below trendline and Kumo.

As you see the big Euro             picture is quite neutral (except EURGBP             )

So how to short EUR in case of a meltdown?
Based mainly on technical setups, I'd recommend 60-70 % vs USD, 15-20 % vs CAD, 10 % vs NOK             and 10-15 % vs AUD.
As always, price action and signals need to confirm your trade ideas!



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