What we can do now is to check the biases.
- Heikin-Ashi has slight bias
- key area for bulls to hold is 1,1115-1,1150. Below Kijun and minor uptrend line we'd see massive selling. This can happen in two cases: Brexit brings risk off to Euro , or FED keeps hawkish stance.
- No surprise here. . Even if EUR gets hit in case of Brexit, GBP yould suffer more.
- neutral: price moves kind of sideaway at a thick Kumo, below Kijun Sen.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bias this week, but no strong momentum
-We have two stories here: in Norway started to increase! That's what 2 years of ccy weakness caused. The other effect is obviously the price of Brent Oil .
- Neutral, consolidation at a flat Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is .
- Rate is negative here, Sweden's economy is doing relatively OK, but they have a huge household debt surge and obviously a real estate bubble.
- Neutral at thin Kumo. No follow through above Kumo cloud.
- Heikin-Ashi is .
- There is still some interest in AUD (higher positive carry compared to other pairs)
- Can be an alternative to EUR, but Australian economy is heavily dependent on China (Asia) and commodity prices too.
- Neutral in the cloud, but looking at forward Kumo, has some bias.
- Lower key supp/res is 1,4230-1,4300 zone, upper res. is ard 1,50+
- If I had to chose, I'd keep position on EURCAD , but again, Canada is dependent on WTI. Those who'd short it defenately need a confirmation below and Kumo.
As you see the big Euro picture is quite neutral (except EURGBP )
So how to short EUR in case of a meltdown?
Based mainly on technical setups, I'd recommend 60-70 % vs USD, 15-20 % vs CAD, 10 % vs NOK and 10-15 % vs AUD.
As always, price action and signals need to confirm your trade ideas!