My last post about this pair was to stay neutral as there is no trend in action. Prices of this pair are currently in consolidation and for medium to long term traders this is a point of no profit. In my last post I suggested that for a conservative trader, we should wait for prices to either break above the 1.170 resistance or the 1.045 support.
ECB, Mario Draghi
Mario Draghi comments brought the Euro down the most since 3 months, creating a candle that might take the Euro to fresh new levels. Euro investors have been receiving mixed data on the Euro zone economic development, which stands the reason behind this consolidation and indecision reflected in price action. Today's move however was of a different kind, it was very volatile and straight to the point, something that we have not seen for long. Investors are now piling up short positions as the sentiment changed, given that the Euro is already too cheap against the US dollar , traders are positioning themselves that it might need to get even cheaper to see a positive gradual effect on the Eurozone economy, given the global economic slowdown, political problems, divergences and so on. The Euro-zone is currently fighting deflation using program started last March and is due to end on September 16, Draghi suggested that another round of stimulus is ready on table in case the Euro growth needed more artificial support, or even a rate cut. Many big financials are expecting a QE2 in 16, due to a fragile Euro-zone economy dampened by slowing emerging markets & commodity prices.
Investors now are going to keep a wide eye on economic data that could show any signs of recovery in the Eurozone. Last month the Euro-zone rate fell below 0 for the first time, signaling red flags about a stagnating economy, and a possibility of further easing. Another factor investors will consider, is the divergent in the US. Many economists refrained from December rate hike estimations and delayed it till March. The US economy is showing signs of recovery in the job & housing markets, with still dampened by . Corporate America are not showing very good signs of recovery, with almost 77% of reporters missed analysts estimates. At the end of the day a rate hike is coming, no matter what. What we could conclude is that the Euro has a higher probability depreciation during the longer term. For that we head for the to spot smart opportunities to enter the market.
Moving Averages (200 (blue) & 50 (black))
After today's ECB meeting, prices went down to trade below the 200 DMA & 50 DMA, suggesting a bias on this pair. But before jumping into a trade, I prefer to be conservative enough and wait for further confirmation. Today's candle broke and closed below a major pivotal support of (1.11041), this gives us a sentiment. The next target support would be at the previous of July & August at 1.0800 round level.
The 1.0800 level? (BLACK DOTTED LINE)
Breaching and closing below this level would be a stronger confirmation of price action leading to the downside and that is where I would start to add short positions after waiting for a re-test of that level. The re-test must fail to break above that area or else we would still be in consolidation and I would avoid trading this pair.
My stop loss is always set 3-5% of my investment value, and I set no take profit, as I keep riding the trend until a retracement hits my stop.
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