Technician

EURUSD: Too Early to be a Bull

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
814 3 14
I think its too early to call for more prolonged upside in the EURUSD             , as price remains below key overhead resistance levels.

Looking at wider picture, the monthly chart, the price was rejected on the first test of the 61.8 retracement level for the long term bearish wave(1.4942-1.2039), which is also just below the main descending resistance for the bear trend that started from 2008 top. Meantime, the structure of the rise since 2012 bottom at 1.2039 is pretty similar to a bearish rising wedge formation as well.

Near term, despite the recent rebound, the structure of lower highs and lower lows is still in place , although price has managed to to break the short term bear channel , however the breakout should be taken with a grain of salt, as recent price action suggests a sideways bias, which is clear on a flattened 50-days SMA and as price continues or break above and below the average. And currently retesting a key horizontal resistance at 1.3700-1.3740.

A break above that resistance at 1.3740 may be a short term bullish signal and extend the rally, but the room towards the first resistance would be only 60 pips, as price would face a cluster of resistance levels among 1.3800-1.3890 area.

Lets see how price reacts to 1.3700 resistance for now, for any bearish signal that may suggest the continuation of the sideways market, and the end of the current bullish wave for another leg lower within the context of the range bias.

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Firstly, great analysis. I really like your style. Now a question: Seven days on, looking at the day chart, it looks like the 'broken' trend line may now be acting as resistance to price. Is this possible or coincidental? Can a 'broken' trend line still serve as support or resistance later on even though it has been violated?
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Yes, this is a key point in technical analysis, as price breaks a support or Resistance level, the broken support changes role to a resistance and the opposite is true.
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Nice chart, I like the way you give your view cross - analysing time frames, this is how every trade should be done, times frames, sector and hedgers.
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